1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

After the loss to MEM, I work on a spreadsheet to find out clues

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by DeBeards, Jan 16, 2020.

Page 1 of 4
  1. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,116
    Likes Received:
    31,380
    2 goals
    to check up Ws & Ls, find out clues why we won, why we lost (past 39 games)
    to exclude irrelevant things we can’t make sure have something to do with those Ls

    The trigger
    Im ok with the loss to okc, coz they are red-hot and jelling well for 2.5-month, what's more, CP3 know our squad well and his mates know russ well.
    But, a loss to MEM is too much, quite painful. The team avg. 24-yr, but using 2 month to fight back and whack up our team full of veterans, their learning curve is stunning. In in other words, we are not that good.

    Samples
    82-game, the whole season
    we played 39 games till matchup MEM, 2 games shy of 42-game, a half season
    taking out 12 games out of past the 39-game, i keep 27 games as sample size (nearly a third of the whole season)
     
    #1 DeBeards, Jan 16, 2020
    jamisonrocket and SamFisher like this.
  2. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2001
    Messages:
    19,116
    Likes Received:
    20,867
    looks....incomplete...
     
    #2 steddinotayto, Jan 16, 2020
    DeBeards, napalm06, bro2044 and 6 others like this.
  3. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,116
    Likes Received:
    31,380
    Method of exclusion
    I take out those 12 games (incl. 9 Ws)
    against 8 teams avg. PCT .314, all bottom teams we will not meetup post-season
    1 game against nop w/o our back court tandem
    1 game against was 159:158 W, the number is unrepresentative

    Findings
    W
    sample size, 27
    17 Ws against 14 teams, 2 teams sub-400, 6 teams above .500, 5 teams between .410-.470
    • Harden %3PM .448, 3PA 13.1 (plus 6.6 ast, 6.4 reb)
    • the 3rd high scorer of our 5-starter, avg. 16-pts
    • CC 15 pts, 13 reb
    L
    sample size 27
    10 Ls against teams, 1 team sub-400, 5 teams above .500, 3 teams between .440-.460

    • Harden %3PM .266, 3PA 12.7 (plus 7.7 ast, 6.4 reb )
    • the 3rd high scorer of our 5-starter, avg. 14-pts
    • CC 14 pts, 15 reb
    ( using 10-player roundup, but possibly incl. )


    Irrelevant
    Bench: W, avg. 36pts; L, avg. 26pts (beard, russ and cc account 69.9% of our payroll, what do we expect from the bench)
    Either Ws or Ls, we avg. 10-player (roundup) rotations (I can’t get numbers exclude garbage time substitution)
    Russ 4 games out, 2W, 2L
    10 loss in total, 3 Home lass (opp PCT .604), 7 Away loss (opp PCT .572)
     
    #3 DeBeards, Jan 16, 2020
    jamisonrocket likes this.
  4. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,116
    Likes Received:
    31,380
    My thoughts
    1. A scheme: Harden is a great player, prolific scorer and future HOF, but not a gifted 3 point shooter. While those nights he could not find his touch, somebody gotta cool him down from relentlessly jerking up 3s. He need a mentor and a scheme for those off nights.
    2. Triangle offense: besides harden and russ, we need a reliable 3rd options (starter) who can create his own shots to contribute 16-18 pts nights in and nights out. (I don’s think that’s EG who need to play role of the six man)
    3. 10-rotations: we need to ensure at least 10-player rotations, I would rather give up a couple of games let Harty to feel for the games.
    4. Swap season: we need to go all out adding 2 player with length and has mid-range shooting, 1 PF and 1 C, both of them can collet 6-9 boards each (shooting from downtown a plus), so that we let go players like CC, Thabo, D house as trading bait.
     
    #4 DeBeards, Jan 16, 2020
    TimDuncanDonaut, da_juice, RocketsTerps and 3 others like this.
  5. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2014
    Messages:
    72,954
    Likes Received:
    111,148
    stopped reading at "not a gifted 3 point shooter"
     
    #5 Os Trigonum, Jan 16, 2020
    Reeko, vlaurelio, BigDog63 and 7 others like this.
  6. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,116
    Likes Received:
    31,380
    Statistics
    (based on ESPN box score)
    FYR

    [​IMG]
     
    #6 DeBeards, Jan 16, 2020
    RustyHarden and jamisonrocket like this.
  7. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,116
    Likes Received:
    31,380
    then just let it go
    dunt give me wrong, obviously im not a beard hater.
     
    #7 DeBeards, Jan 16, 2020
  8. jamisonrocket

    jamisonrocket Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2009
    Messages:
    1,389
    Likes Received:
    3,116
    I liked all your reply's.

    I'm not quite sure what is going on in this thread but it seems like you are working hard at what ever it is
     
    #8 jamisonrocket, Jan 16, 2020
    RustyHarden, REEKO_HTOWN, DrNuegebauer and 7 others like this.
  9. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2001
    Messages:
    19,116
    Likes Received:
    20,867

    ...there it is.

    I admire your work and dedication but those 4 points didn't need any statistical modeling because it's pretty evident.

    Point 1: How are you going to mentor a guy that's increased his 3 point shooting EVERY YEAR since he's been in the league? He's been conditioned over 800+ regular season games to shoot.
    Point 2: At first I thought you meant Triangle offense like in terms of Tex Winter but I think you're implying having a 3rd option. We all want a 3rd option to exist on this team that can score 17-18 ppg to alleviate the usage of Harden and/or Westbrook but the way the team plays don't give anyone else an opportunity to be that scorer other than getting lobs/PnRs like Clint. On Gordon, he actually averaged 18ppg the year we won 65 games but that was a team with a very different make up.
    Point 3: How are "we" going to ensure this when the coach's MO is to do the opposite?
    Point 4: I don't mind using Clint as trade bait but you're asking for two players that can shoot from an area that no team in the NBA uses (mid-range) anymore. That's a hard ask.
     
    #9 steddinotayto, Jan 16, 2020
    fckbandwagons, da_juice, HP3 and 2 others like this.
  10. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2013
    Messages:
    19,870
    Likes Received:
    25,797
    Harden had a bad game, but the problems moving forward stem from lack of defense and quality at forward. It's that simple. A million guards and no wingspans around the perimeter.
    Just twin towers it for now until we make some type of signing in that spot. Hartenstein AND Capella it together!
     
    #10 deb4rockets, Jan 16, 2020
    vlaurelio, da_juice, hakeem94 and 2 others like this.
  11. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,116
    Likes Received:
    31,380
    ok, i spend hrs, maybe it's crap
     
    #11 DeBeards, Jan 16, 2020
    hakeem94 and jamisonrocket like this.
  12. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2014
    Messages:
    72,954
    Likes Received:
    111,148
    not saying you're a Beard hater . . . just that your take on Harden's 3 point shooting is, shall we say, idiosyncratic.

    Harden 3 point.jpeg
     
    #12 Os Trigonum, Jan 16, 2020
    fckbandwagons, D-rock, SF3isBack!! and 3 others like this.
  13. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,116
    Likes Received:
    31,380
    i mean he is not a pure shooter, he is not stephen curry, he can adjust his games while 3s just not falling in
     
    #13 DeBeards, Jan 16, 2020
    BigDog63, REEKO_HTOWN, napalm06 and 1 other person like this.
  14. Dacamel

    Dacamel Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2009
    Messages:
    898
    Likes Received:
    1,298
    My clue is this. PJ looks unhappy. Maybe bc he is only getting a couple of shots per game lately?
    I don't think they would be good on the floor together. But might be better than 5 guys 6'6 and under on the court at the same time.
     
    #14 Dacamel, Jan 16, 2020
    Ramo$e and D-rock like this.
  15. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2006
    Messages:
    89,950
    Likes Received:
    43,314
    #15 daywalker02, Jan 16, 2020
    Ramo$e likes this.
  16. TimV

    TimV Member

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2018
    Messages:
    104
    Likes Received:
    130
    You're displaying a volume stat. He is a league average 3P% shooter every year. He's a prolific 3P shooter who actually would be a better 3P shooter with better discretion.
     
    #16 TimV, Jan 16, 2020
    da_juice, Ramo$e, hakeem94 and 2 others like this.
  17. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2001
    Messages:
    19,116
    Likes Received:
    20,867
    no one is Stephen Curry though. Harden's not a dead-eye shooter and sometimes those heat check 27 footers do get annoying but he's hitting 37% of his 13.4 attempts per game. That generates 15 ppg alone.

    Let's say he cuts down his 3 point shooting by 30% to get him around 10 attempts per game. If he hits at that same 37% clip, he's generating 11.1 ppg

    He then uses the 3 attempts he's passing up on 3s to shoot midrangers. Using his career % from 10-16 feet of 42% FG%, that's 1.26 FGM on 3 FGA which gives him 2.52 points (1.26 FGM * 2 points). 2.52 + 11.1 < 15 ppg. You're going to have to find a sweet spot where offsetting 3s with midranges would give Harden more points and I don't know if that sweet spot exists.
     
    #17 steddinotayto, Jan 16, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2020
    slothy420, Ramo$e, D-rock and 9 others like this.
  18. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 1999
    Messages:
    61,749
    Likes Received:
    29,121
    Here is the thing.
    Do 2 out of the 4 and almost all problems go away.

    Do all 4 I guarantee new issues emerge.

    Rocket River
     
    #18 Rocket River, Jan 16, 2020
    Ramo$e, hakeem94 and DeBeards like this.
  19. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,116
    Likes Received:
    31,380

    thx,
    actually, i have no time to write up an article based on my spreadsheet, but at least i can stop those whiner and hater complaining right after 2-3 Ls
    it's time to back on track, have some serious debate based on statistics
     
    #19 DeBeards, Jan 16, 2020
    hakeem94 likes this.
  20. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,116
    Likes Received:
    31,380
    cool
     
    #20 DeBeards, Jan 16, 2020
(You must log in or sign up to post here.)
Page 1 of 4

Share This Page

Toggle Width
Style
ClutchFans Original

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Rockets Content

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now