I don’t care what anyone thinks. Hinch is my favorite manager of all time. I’ve watched baseball for 43 years and seen some great ones, but Hinch is my guy. Dude just seemed to get it on all levels.
No matter what punishment the league gave us or how this season was going to pan out, it was always nice to know that we had Lunhow to rebuild things when it came time. This is a massive blow that can’t be understated. Someone will snatch him up in 2021 without hesitation.
Na, if we offer them something that they feel will make them better, they will do it. Other organizations aren't going to handle this like fans, they will make whatever deal they think makes them better. If anything it will be easier to make trades if that's what we want to do, Luhnow wasn't well liked throughout the sport
Trying to figure the real cost of the punishment is difficult. If you assume Crane will be able to hire a competent GM and manager (totally debatable; on the one hand, he hired Luhnow who hired Hinch, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to do it again, but GMs like Luhnow don’t grow on trees), and you assume all other things will remain static, the real cost is $5M plus the value of the 4 draft picks, plus the revenue decrease that results from fan backlash. It’s very difficult to estimate the revenue hit. Using Fangraphs most recent article on the subject (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/), the draft picks are probably worth a total of $30-40M. All this to say that while this was a devastating turn of events, Crane alone can fix it. All he has to do is hire the right GM (again) and be willing to spend $50M+ that he previously wouldn’t have had to spend. I keep coming back to the topic that Crane has 2 big lawsuits unresolved (Comcast and McLane) which could represent a half billion dollar swing in available funds. So those issues dwarf this situation. Now, the outcomes of those cases may already be known to the parties involved, but any uncertainty would mean those cases will impact the Astros ability to compete far more than this cheating punishment.
Considering that is likely going to be spread over 6-7 years, he probably won't have to spend it except for the portions in years the Astros need the help.
Could be as simple as extending Springer but otherwise saying they’re not going to spend any more money or trade away any prospects in 2022 and let the chips fall where they may. That would likely mean a payroll ~$100M in 2022 with the team expected to win 80-90 games. Then they could jump back in to contention in 2023 with a repaired farm and $100M+ in available payroll. If I were a GM candidate my plan would be to go all in (Max payroll, deadline deals) in 2020 and 2021 (extend Springer, trade for a good pitcher, sign Brantley/Gurriel replacements for 1 year), then take 2022 to reload (trade Pressly, QO Verlander, Greinke, Correa, maybe McCullers, let Osuna walk). Then, depending on how players (Tucker, Alvarez, Whitley, any prospects who emerge) have developed, you can either go back all in (spend heavy in free agency, trade prospects), or fully engaged in another rebuild.
Thinking about the impact of losing the picks....obviously high first round picks have a good success rate...looking at our roster now guys like Correa, Bregman, Springer were all taken high in the draft....Tucker who could be an impact guy starting this year also These picks are low end of the round types though, I won't pretend I study the draft results closely, but I would guess the success rate of players taken in these spots isn't great. The MLB draft is such a crapshoot after the top few picks. Who all do we have on our current team that was taken in the bottom portion of the first round or in the second round. Off the top of my head I can only think of Lance, who we only signed because Luhnow was so good at working the draft slot system. I'm not saying there is no impact to losing the picks, I fully realize they are valuable. I just don't think it's quite as huge as what some are making it out to be
Other teams know this as well... which is why the media is ganging up to claim the punishment wasn’t severe enough. They really want the Astros to collapse... which is very unlikely to happen given their talent level. Not sure what punishment exists (other than disbanding the team) that would actually decimate this team’s current core.
It will hurt.. Jack Flaherty arguably St. Louis's ace was the last pick of the first round in 2015. Aaron Judge was the 32nd pick in the 2013 draft. So not having those picks is going to hurt.
Oh yea you can definitely find picks in that range that worked out tremendously You can go back and look at drafts historically though, and you will see that most players taken in that spot have not had great major league careers My point is that it's a huge crapshoot. You could easily draft guys that don't end up making an impact anyway. Not having the picks hurts, but it's not the crippling blow that some make it out to be
Total value is probably ~$40M. Without late first rounders, you don’t have guys like Beer, Bukauskas, Cameron, Fisher, etc who you trade for impact players. It’s not the end of the world, but unless the Astros get really lucky or spend extra money to make up for it, it’s the type of event that closes the window a season or two earlier.
Thank you for the link on valuing draft picks. A lot of what you write on trade valuation makes sense but is unintuitive to me so far, so your posts help me learn. Wouldn't the cost of lower fan interest be quickly apparent by the pace of season ticket sales? Is gate where most of the variable cash flow arises? Or do TV payments vary year to year as well? Is there a brief summary at CF or elsewhere about the issues and positions for both of those lawsuits?
Yes, revenue impact via fans should be pretty apparent from ticket sales. TV revenue should not be affected (unless the network sued the team based on lost revenue caused by fewer subscribers due to cheating scandal), which I doubt very seriously. Quick links on Comcast lawsuit: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sp...reject-Crane-lawsuit-state-court-14428118.php McLane: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ho...-charges-Jim-Crane-Astros-tanked-14484014.php Synopsis: Crane suing Comcast/McLane for $200M (I think), accusing them of hiding what a shitshow the network was. The network ownership was a big factor in how much Crane paid McLane for the Astros. McLane countersued Crane for $25M, alleging that Crane tanked the network to avoid paying McLane money that was based on the networks performance. ETA: I thought I had seen that McLane was countersuing for $200M, but apparently it’s only $25M. So the total swing is between $200M and $300M, not the $500M I mentioned upthread.
I agree it's plausible that they miss the playoffs. Injuries happen. Like you said, the circus + a new manager could easily have an effect. (I'm assuming Espada --> minimal change overall right now, but that doesn't mean zero effect.) Too many variables to assume anything. But the post I replied to said "if the Astros fall off" implying it was a fall and not a variability blip. And then it mentioned a sell off, which again implies it's a complete fall that isn't immediately recoverable. And I don't see that as a plausible scenario.
One potential silver lining in all this is that there is a chance some of the players see their value taking a hit due to this scandal; the price to extend Springer or Correa may never be lower than it is right now.
