Why wouldn't I consider him an ace? Using park corrected ERA and FIP, he was 4th and 6th respectively. My favorite pitching stat (xwOBA) he was 14th. Basically 6th through 16th rankings were the same. Unless there were 5 or less aces last season, Greinke has to be considered one.
This could really end up being a season where some young guys (Tucker, Whitley, Possibly martes, James, straw, abreu, and obviously a full season of Alvarez) really have a chance to succeed at the MLB level and we realize that we are going to be damn good for many many years. Especially once we lock up springer to go along with Altuve and Breggy. I know a lot of people are down on the lack of excitement and roster moves this offseason but even @Snake Diggit said we are still projected to be the top team in baseball record wise. Having some super young, talented guys reach their potential is the most valuable thing in baseball. Way more than giving a 30 year old pitcher a 325$ million dollar deal for example. If Whitley TRULY can reach his potential. We have a cole like talent on our hands for 6 years and on the LOW
Word. Houston’s going to contend for another championship at least this season and next season regardless of what moves they make or don’t make. After that, it depends on if their “Phase 2 Core” (Alvarez, Tucker, Whitley, potentially others like James, Urquidy, Abreu, and Toro) can be good enough to keep things going.
JV and Greinke are still a great "1A and 1B" combo. I am a bit concerned about who comes after, though. But if LMJ is healthy come playoff time we're just one consistently good starter away from having a strong October rotation.
Greinke’s projections for next season aren’t that great. He’s still expected to be a really good pitcher, but most projection systems don’t expect him to be an “ace”. Generally, I’d define an ace as one of the 20 best starting pitchers in the league. Greinke currently projects to be the 46th best pitcher next season, according to Steamer (Verlander is 4th and McCullers 34th). At this point given the strength of the Yankees and Dodgers rotations, it’s pretty glaring that Houston would likely need to add another high quality starter to be on par with them in a playoff series. Jon Gray and Luis Castillo are the only 2 guys who project as “aces” who have been rumored to be available. Trevor Bauer, Matt Boyd, Mike Minor, Garrett Richards, Chris Archer, Robbie Ray, and David Price are other names to file away.
I will take the under on 45 pitchers being better than Greinke if he pitches anything close to what Steamer projects.
Yes, they have prepared for the worse and planned accordingly. It always seemed to me it would be difficult to prove what Luhnow knew. There is no way Hinch rolls on Luhnow and I can’t see Beltran or Cora either. My contact in the front office doesn’t even live within 800 miles of Houston but is concerned he will be fined or suspended based on what MLB requested he turned over, including text messages and emails. Only thing I will say about Luhnow and a culture of cheating, it is rampant from the grounds crew, to the clubhouse attendants, to the players on the field, to the coaches and executives. They are all independently trying to find an edge in an incredibly competitive industry and it is often allowed and over looked if you win. Luhnow came from the Cardinals, not exactly the cleanest organization. It may bother others but it doesn’t bother me because it’s part of the game and I want my team to be better than others.
I thought you might be one of the posters on this site that don't give Greinke any credit for how good he is. Sorry about that.
For 2020, Greinke will likely be a low end ace, a high end No. 2, or fall apart which could make him anything from a No. 3 to out of baseball. Looking at Clay Davenport projections that divide stats to percentiles, the average more or less matches Steamer for ERA (but not innings), but the likeliest scenarios are that he's ace or that he sucks (i.e.., gets hurt or losses stuff based on age). I'm going with ace. Edit: I'm okay with someone saying he should valued like a No.2 going forward based on risk.
Hypothetically, if a Correa for Castillo swap occurred, would that still put Greinke as the #2 starter? As the roster currently stands, Zach is of course our #2 starter. But if there's a high upside pitcher that Luhnow acquires I don't think it'll be long before Greinke moves down to #3 with said high upside pitcher at #2. That's not an indictment on Greinke being bad (far from it; I really like the guy) but rather the embarrassment of riches the Astros once again would have with their TOR order.
Ideally, Greinke will be the 3rd best starter. But I think if a player like Castillo or Gray were acquired, Greinke would still slot 2nd in the rotation even tho those guys are likely to be better than Greinke.
I really hope what we saw from Verlander in the World Series was just a symptom of pitching too many innings that season and not a taste of what is to come this year.
Totally valid and I can agree with what @bobrek said too. I think it becomes irrelevant who starts after JV if Luhnow can acquire a top flight pitcher. Either way, my initial point about getting a #2 or #3 type of pitcher was that this team will be back to it's 100+ winning ways if that was to occur. Even without a solid #2 or #3 this team will still compete and should make the postseason barring any catastrophic injuries *knocks on wood*
I think he'll be fine even going into the season as a 37 year old. If you look at the past 4 seasons he's been fairly consistent.
The team as currently constructed projects to win ~106 games. However, the lineup is responsible for the majority of that huge win total, and in a playoff series, top notch starting pitching weighs more. So an Astros team that wins 106 games might still be underdogs to a Rays team that only wins 90 (if the Rays trio of Morton/Snell/Glasnow is as good as projected).
Which is why I'm banking on Luhnow working his magic to acquire that #2 or #3 starter haha. Even if McCullers comes back healthy and Whitley improves, you need as many quality pitchers as you can get in the postseason.
