Roster predictions: -Toro and Abreu headline a package of prospects traded for a starting pitcher (maybe Boyd or Ray). -Reddick is dumped. -Astros carry 3 catchers. -Martes dominates in spring.
What is the point of carrying 3 poor-hitting catchers? The 3rd one is never going to play unless #1 gets pinch-hit for and #2 then gets injured in his few innings of work. In that fluky scenario, put some random player at catcher for 1-2 innings, accept it might cost you 1 game, and bring someone up the next day, and move on. Unless I'm missing something, it seems having a useful player would be much more valuable, whether it's an extra bullpen arm, a legit hitter, a speedy defensive guy, or whatever else?
Catching is very taxing, and they need rest days. 3rd catcher would allow pinch hitting for backup catcher frequently and allow Maldonado to rest. On extra bullpen arm, I expect MLB will put in a rule to limit teams to 13 pitchers. Regarding hitters...only player that really needs a pinch hitter is the catcher, and Astros will likely have a couple guys available to pinch hit in first 25 roster spots.
a couple of things. First, ideally the 2 backups would have skills that complement each other and the starter. Stubbs bats lefty, Garneau and Maldy righty. Stubbs rarely strikes out, the other two have more balanced bats (although both have been traditionally poor hitters overall). Stubbs also apparently has ability to play other positions. In summary, if Stubbs can be a roughly average hitter and play C/2B/3B/LF, hes probably more valuable as a 26th man than a player like Toro, who is an above average hitter but can’t play catcher (although I wouldn’t be opposed to them letting Toro be the 3rd/emergency catcher since he did it in the minors).
The whole history of baseball it seems most teams have done fine with 2 catchers and getting them enough rest. Pinch hit for backup catcher to save Maldonado a few innings is not exactly a high-value use of a roster space. There were plenty of times last season where there was a question of "do we carry an extra hitter or pitcher" and now that we have the spot so we don't have to make that decision, "let's add a 3rd catcher" seems like the wrong answer. Wasn't lack of roster space a big reason for the Yordan Alvarez debate going so long? If you like Stubbs as a hitter, then you could just keep him as your backup catcher and play him here and there elsewhere if you need to get him more ABs. Sort of like Evan Gattis in 2017. You still don't really need the 3rd guy that can only catch. I agree Toro, if he can emergency catch or even legitimately catch a few innings here and there in JoeJoe's scenario has value - because he has both the bat and the positional flexibility.
Spoiler https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/st...pa-bay-rays-charlie-morton-bound-trade-target Tampa Bay Rays' Charlie Morton bound to be a trade target Starting pitchers among Major League Baseball's free agents continue to come off the board quickly: Stephen Strasburg followed by Gerrit Cole followed by Madison Bumgarner, Wade Miley, Julio Teheran and Gio Gonzalez, all faring better than anybody might have expected last winter. With the preferred pitching pendulum in MLB seemingly swinging back from relievers to starting pitchers again, there is a desperate need for rotation help in the industry. The Minnesota Twins are looking for help, as are the Chicago White Sox& (although they did add Dallas Keuchel), the Toronto Blue Jays, the Los Angeles Dodgers and others. With the free-agent cupboard mostly cleaned out, clubs are increasingly digging into trade possibilities, which is why the name of the Cleveland Indians' Mike Clevinger has popped up, and why executives have speculated that the Pittsburgh Pirates will try to fix Chris Archer before dangling him in June or July, or sooner. Because of the rotation starvation, the Yankees will be able to make a decent deal to move the contract of J.A. Happ, and the Boston Red Sox might be able to construct some trades of David Price and/or Nathan Eovaldi, to shed at least some financial obligation. Other teams believe the Seattle Mariners, in the midst of a rebuild, would flip Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi for the right offers. The Pirates' Joe Musgrove turned 27 earlier this month, and is coming off a season in which he generated a 4.44 ERA and 1.6 WAR. But he's arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, with a projected salary of just $3.4 million that makes him close to untouchable. I asked an official who needs a starter if he might see a path to landing Musgrove, and he scoffed. "I seriously doubt [the Pirates] would talk about him," he said. "They may say they'd talk about him, but they're not going to trade him." Tanner Roark got $24 million over two years. Cole Hamels cost $18 million for one season. Cole will make $1 million for every six innings or so. In that context, Musgrove is a deeply coveted asset. So remember the name of one pitcher, in particular, who is bound to become one of the most targeted assets in the year ahead: the Tampa Bay Rays' Charlie Morton. In 2020, he will pitch for $15 million, in the second year of what could turn out to be a three-year deal, if he spends less than a month on the injured list. Morton is 36, and before he signed with Tampa Bay last winter, teams were wary of a breakdown -- but then he had a spectacular season in 2019, posting a 3.05 ERA for Tampa Bay, with a career-high 240 strikeouts and just 57 walks in 194.2 innings. He finished third behind his former teammates, Justin Verlander and Cole, in the voting for the AL Cy Young Award. He beat Oakland in the AL wild-card game, throwing five shutout innings, augmenting what was already an accomplished postseason track record. When healthy, Morton will check every box for contending teams. He has been a staff leader. He has worked in big games, big moments, including the last pitches of the 2017 World Series. He has pitched in both leagues, and in the AL East. He keeps the ball in the park: Of all starters in the majors in 2019, he allowed the fewest home runs per nine innings. His contract for the season ahead is affordable, and if he continues to take the ball and his deal vests for 2021, the one-year obligation will only add to his perceived value. If the Rays were to do the arbitrage thing, as one evaluator described it, then it would make sense for the small-budget franchise to flip Morton right now, in the way it did Tommy Pham, because the potential return nearing the end of his career could be excellent. But the Rays have a strong and respectful relationship with Morton, and while he doesn't possess any no-trade protection in writing, there is a sense that Tampa Bay might work in concert with Morton to determine how the next couple of years would play out. Morton is not someone who is wed to extracting every inning, every pitch, every nickel out of his arm. He could walk away and be perfectly happy at home, a perspective that gives him a de facto no-trade clause. If he were traded somewhere against his wishes, anybody who knows Morton knows he would be more apt than a lot of his peers to simply retire. The Rays would probably feel out Morton before they ever put him on the market, but for now he's an important part of their playoff hopes for 2020, along with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, in front of the club's deep bullpen. The market for position players is steeped with stars: Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, Nolan Arenado and others. The scarcest asset is, and will continue to be, starting pitchers like Charlie Morton. News from around the major leagues • The cancerous effect of Major League Baseball's tanking problem was apparent last week, after the Indians traded Corey Kluber to the Texas Rangers for hard-throwing reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields. Once news of the deal broke, a lot of the social media response fixated on the idea that this was a first sign that Cleveland intended to wholly surrender the 2020 season and focus on a rebuild. But here's the thing: The Indians haven't tanked and aren't tanking. Rather, they've endeavored to remain competitive, just as the Diamondbacks, Athletics and Rays have continued to assemble teams that can contend for a playoff spot. Over the past seven seasons, the Indians have averaged 91 wins a year, the most in the American League. In that same time, they've ranked 21st among 30 teams in average annual payroll, at $104 million, according to the numbers dug out by the great Paul Hembekides. Last year, the Indians finished 93-69, with a payroll of $120 million. As the high-end salaries for players like Lindor and Cole grow, the disparity between small-market and big-market teams also escalates, and the Indians, Diamondbacks, Athletics and Rays are forced to manage payroll and make difficult choices. For the Indians, dealing Kluber is one of those moments, given his history and the fans' familiarity with him. But Kluber's salary of $17.5 million wasn't proportional to his role on the team, relative to its strengths -- and given the apparently tepid industry interest in Kluber, other clubs viewed him the same way, as an increasingly expensive pitcher coming off an injury-plagued season. "I liked [the deal] for the Indians," one evaluator said. "Too much risk [for Cleveland] in that contract." Said another: "Kluber scares me right now." One evaluator felt that the Indians waited too long to move Kluber, and that there is more potential for high-end production from the former Cy Young winner than from Clase, whose role will limit his innings and value. But even without Kluber, the Indians could still contend -- as they did last year. Kluber pitched 35 innings for the 2019 Indians, with a 5.80 ERA, and Cleveland contended for the AL Central title. It's likely that the Indians will start next season with a rotation of Shane Bieber, who won the All-Star Game MVP and finished fourth in the AL Cy Young Award voting last year; Clevinger, who was limited to 21 starts and 124 innings in 2019; Carlos Carrasco, who made 12 starts before his cancer diagnosis; Zach Plesac (3.81) and Adam Plutko. Through their offensive struggles of last summer, they developed a rookie center fielder, Oscar Mercado, and hung in the AL Central race despite major injuries to Lindor and Jose Ramirez. They'll use the money saved in the Kluber deal and spend on a second baseman, and they can reasonably expect better lineup production around Ramirez, Carlos Santana and perhaps Lindor. • Other teams view the San Diego Padres as the most unpredictable in the industry right now. There continues to be a major push within the organization to contend in 2020, following a season in which San Diego finished 36 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and 19 games behind Milwaukee for the second wild card. The Padres have a very deep well of talent in their farm system, and in their trade talks they have shown a willingness to expend those resources aggressively, and surprisingly. • When Ken Rosenthal reported the other day that the Padres had demonstrated an interest in the Indians' Lindor to play shortstop -- and perhaps to shift Fernando Tatis Jr. to either center field, second base or some type of super utility role -- it was noted by rival evaluators that such a position move right now would immediately reduce the potential leverage for Tatis Jr. on a long-term deal. Historically, elite shortstops tend to get paid more than their peers. The Padres have been trying to move the contract of outfielder Wil Myers, perhaps by attaching high-end minor league talent to Myers to unload his money. Lindor will get a huge payday through arbitration next season, so if the Padres extract him from the Indians, then Lindor, Myers, Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer would be in line to make $92 million combined in 2020.
Garneau is only guaranteed 100k. If he makes the team out of spring training he gets 650k with some limited incentives or 300k in the minors. He is not guaranteed a roster spot. Luhnow will continue to try to improve the club. Hopefully, he can upgrade the starting catcher position. Garneau is/was insurance like Hermann last year.
Last season when debate on extra hitter or pitcher was going on, Astros were hurt, didn't have flexibility, and didn't want to give away a player that was useful in the season before. Astros are almost 100% carrying 13 pitchers (i.e., an extra pitcher last season) provided MLB won't let them carry 14. I could see Astros carrying an extra bat. Astros would have done this last year considering the players that were out of options. I could see Astros carrying an extra catcher. Both seem superfluous to me as neither player is going to be used much. Edit: It is just a matter of how will a team using extra spot. Is it for a guy out of options? Is it for pinch hitting? If so which player gets pinch hit for? is backup OF/IF better pinch hitter than 26th spot guy would be? I look at Astros and Maldonado/Garneau (sp?) as only regulars that need to be pinch hit for, and not sure Toro is a better bat than Diaz or whichever regular is getting break from the field. Also, I'd prefer Toro get fulltime ABs in AAA than occasional ABs as pinch hitter.
That 2 yr deal covered 2 arbitration seasons from 2018-2019. He is arbitration eligible for the final time this offseason and is expected to settle around $21M. He will be a free agent for the first time after the 2020 season.
Depends on the length of the contract. The arbitration years are set... if a team signs somebody to a longer contract that covers both arb years and potential FA years, they arb years are essentially bought out.
Agreed. We need 13 pitchers and 13 position players with 2 catchers. Carrying 3 catchers would basically be giving up the extra roster spot.
Spoiler https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/st...too-early-2020-mlb-starting-rotation-rankings What's behind the rankings To determine these rankings, we used a combination of two methods. First, we deployed the starting pitcher ranking system developed by Bill James. Then we used the Steamer projections from FanGraphs to generate scores equivalent to James' system. By averaging the two measurements, we smoothed out the data for pitchers coming off injuries and generated forecasts for pitchers not currently ranked by James' formula. Each pitcher received an initial score based on that method. The pitchers were then ranked in order by that score to determine the likely rotation order for each club. The scores were then weighted according to rotation slot. In other words, scores for No. 1 starters counted more than those of No. 2 starters, and so on. This was done to mimic the differences in expected workloads, and also to gauge how well the rotation would rate in a postseason context. These weighted scores were used to calculate each team's rotation score. Finally, the system generated a "slot descriptor" for each pitcher. That is based on the pitchers' overall MLB rank. The top 15 starters would rate as "first-division No. 1," for example. Anyone ranking in the 46 to 60 range would be a "second-division No. 2." The aim is to give an indication of the relative strength of each pitcher in the rotation in comparison to other pitchers who occupy the same slots. Thus for the top-ranked Nationals, you can see that Patrick Corbin might be Washington's third starter by this method, but in the MLB landscape, he rates as a first-division No. 1. Conversely, on the bottom-feeding Orioles, Baltimore's top starter -- John Means -- rates as a second-division No. 3 starter. Which isn't what you want from your "ace." -- Bradford Doolittle The starting pitcher market has been boiling atop the MLB hot stove the past few weeks. Just check out a list of the top 20 or so starters who have changed teams since the end of the 2019 season: Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, Corey Kluber, Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel, Cole Hamels, Wade Miley, Julio Teheran, Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Tanner Roark, Gio Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Jordan Lyles, Dylan Bundy, Kyle Gibson, Rick Porcello, Eric Lauer, Martin Perez, Kevin Gausman. A few days ago, we did some estimates to create a snapshot of how wins have transferred around the majors so far this offseason. After this weekend's moves, which were headlined by the White Sox's signing of former Cy Young winner Keuchel to a three-year, $55 million deal, approximately 183 wins have changed hands this winter via trades or free agency. Of those, 36.5% are accounted for by starting pitchers. There is still work to be done. Wannabe contenders like the Padres, Angels and Twins still need rotation help. On the free-agent market, lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu -- who finished second in NL Cy Young balloting last season -- is still out there. He's really the last pitcher from the top couple of tiers in free agency still on the market, holding out for a big, three- or four-year deal. The other top options -- think Homer Bailey, Ivan Nova, Rich Hill, Taijuan Walker et al -- are down-the-rotation value plays for the most part. What do these things tells us? Well, when you've got a free-agent class nearly empty of impact starters who carry with them any degree of certainty, and you've got teams trying to compete that have rotation holes remaining, there is only one recourse. Well, there are two -- the Pacific Rim free-agent market often gets overlooked, though the top couple of options appear to have been snagged already. (That would be two pitchers out of Korea: Kwang Hyun Kim, who signed with the Cardinals, and Josh Lindblom, who signed with the Brewers.) Basically, though, we're talking about trades. Expect the whisper mill on that front to get louder over the next few weeks. For now, while we wait to see where Ryu lands and which rumors gain traction, let's see how the rotations stack up. 1. Washington Nationals (436.4) Projected starters 1. Max Scherzer (Score of 520.2 ranks No. 2; 1st-division No. 1) 2. Stephen Strasburg (Score of 481.3 ranks No. 5; 1st-division No. 1) 3. Patrick Corbin (Score of 458.2 ranks No. 7; 1st-division No. 1) 4. Anibal Sanchez (Score of 370.8 ranks No. 51; 2nd-division No. 2) 5. Joe Ross (Score of 325.0 ranks No. 131; 1st-division No. 5) 6. Austin Voth (Score of 323.0 ranks No. 134; 1st-division No. 5) 7. Erick Fedde (Score of 296.5 ranks No. 200; 2nd-division No. 7) With the Astros losing Gerrit Cole, no one can match the power trio atop the Washington rotation. And while the Nats will have to fight their way into the postseason after losing franchise star Anthony Rendon, if they do, the outlook will be similar to 2019. That is, Washington won't be a team you want to see in a short series. As a second-division No. 2, Anibal Sanchez is a strong fourth starter for manager Davey Martinez, though he's at a stage of his career where his effectiveness can't be taken for granted. The Nationals need Sanchez to remain strong because there is a steep drop after him to Ross and Voth, while Fedde is really just a name to list here. Another veteran arm for added depth makes sense for this roster. 2. New York Yankees (426.3) Projected starters 1. Gerrit Cole (Score of 553.0 ranks No. 1; 1st-division No. 1) 2. James Paxton (Score of 428.6 ranks No. 17; 2nd-division No. 1) 3. Masahiro Tanaka (Score of 393.5 ranks No. 35; 1st-division No. 2) 4. Luis Severino (Score of 363.5 ranks No. 62; 1st-division No. 3) 5. J.A. Happ (Score of 361.2 ranks No. 66; 1st-division No. 3) 6. Domingo German (Score of 343.2 ranks No. 99; 1st-division No. 4) 7. Jonathan Loaisiga (Score of 302.0 ranks No. 188; 1st-division No. 7) First, we don't yet know the outcome of MLB's investigation into the domestic violence allegations made against German. We don't know whether he will -- or should -- pitch next season. But that's not the only uncertainty about this listing. With Happ slotting in as New York's No. 5 despite the $17 million he's due in 2020, he's been a frequent mention in the rumor mill. If Happ is moved, the Yankees will clearly need to add a couple of veteran depth options. Fans of the Bronx Bombers certainly have high hopes for prospect Deivi Garcia, but he's only 20 years old, so it's tough to pencil him in just yet. However it shakes out, the addition of Cole, coupled with an anticipated season of better health for Severino, gives New York one of the game's best starting units. 3. New York Mets (405.2) Projected starters 1. Jacob deGrom (Score of 501.5 ranks No. 3; 1st-division No. 1) 2. Noah Syndergaard (Score of 404.9 ranks No. 26; 2nd-division No. 1) 3. Marcus Stroman (Score of 390.2 ranks No. 38; 1st-division No. 2) 4. Rick Porcello (Score of 361.8 ranks No. 65; 1st-division No. 3) 5. Steven Matz (Score of 355.0 ranks No. 71; 1st-division No. 3) 6. Michael Wacha (Score of 323.3 ranks No. 133; 1st-division No. 5) 7. Walker Lockett (Score of 295.2 ranks No. 205; 2nd-division No. 7) The Mets are banking on Wacha to bounce back and give them the only depth option they'll need if the other starters remain healthy, because all are capable of approaching 200 innings or more. It's a strong group. The rotation has been New York's strength for a few years, but for the Mets to break back into the postseason in 2020, they'll need this unit to carry them. That's especially true since, thus far, the club hasn't done much to address last season's leaky bullpen. 4. Cincinnati Reds (399.5) Projected starters 1. Trevor Bauer (Score of 431.5 ranks No. 15; 1st-division No. 1) 2. Luis Castillo (Score of 426.8 ranks No. 18; 2nd-division No. 1) 3. Sonny Gray (Score of 423.2 ranks No. 20; 2nd-division No. 1) 4. Anthony DeSclafani (Score of 367.8 ranks No. 53; 2nd-division No. 2) 5. Wade Miley (Score of 354.1 ranks No. 73; 1st-division No. 3) 6. Tyler Mahle (Score of 326.6 ranks No. 126; 1st-division No. 5) 7. Lucas Sims (Score of 303.4 ranks No. 184; 1st-division No. 7) It's amazing how abruptly the Reds have turned around their starting pitcher outlook. After years of struggling to piece together anything resembling a big-league-worthy group, Cincinnati suddenly features one of the best on-paper rotations in baseball. In Bauer, Castillo and Gray, the Reds boast a trio of hurlers who rate as No. 1 starters. Add a second-division No. 2 in DeSclafani in their fourth slot and solid veteran Miley in the 5-hole, and the Reds will enter the majority of their games in 2020 favored to win the starting pitcher battle. That's pretty incredible given where this group was just a couple of years ago.
