Astros I doubt will get draft picks from Yankees after MLB hands down punishment for alleged sign stealing. That will blow
Come on, man! This was viewed as a VERY REAL silver lining the moment the Astros traded for Cole two years ago.
For those who woke up pissed (or went to bed angry), although certainly natural, also recognize that these monstrous deals almost *never* work out well for the team. Cole went out and got the 2nd highest contract in modern American sports history. Kudos to him. Tip the cap and thank you for your two unbelievable years here. Like Seal said, this isn’t a cosmic shift like it would have been in the NBA. Cards lost Pujols, Yanks lost Cano, Nats lost Harper...well be just fine. Two solid takeaways: first, pitchers should be fiending to work with Strom and the Astros, all negative press aside. His track record is unmatched. We turned a, what, top 45 SP into the second richest man in baseball. And we still have JV and a Grienke at the top, with LMJ and some nice arms on the staff. Second, October baseball is random. 2018 and 2019 showed just that. Yanks have a hell of a team, as do several other teams. But things always play out, and the most talented or expensive team doesn’t mean sh*t. All this really means is that heads will roll in NY if anything goes wrong. The amount of pressure on the organization will be larger than anything they’ve seen since their ‘09 championship. I know everyone loves to compare the Astros and Yanks...but I do believe our main focus remains AL West teams. The goal is to get to the playoffs over. And over. And over. And over. We’ll likely run into the Yankees at some point, but they shouldn’t be our primary focus given that they’re in a different division.
We probably shouldn't play next season now that Cole has signed with the Yankees... That contract will haunt them at some point.
The comments I saw were about how the Astros are going to somehow suck, not necessarily about the competitive balance in the AL being shifted. If it was totally about the latter then yea I get it but the kneejerk reaction of the former because of a pending departure of Cole confuses me. The possibility of not winning 100+ games is fairly high but you don't need to field a 100+ win team to win it all. I fully expect the Astros organization to react to this departure as turning-the-page and reload with pitching quality and depth signings. I just hope our fanbase gives Cole the appreciation and positive reaction he deserves when the Yankees come into town.
I'm still pissed they didn't bring him out to start the 7th inning of game seven. I don't know if I will ever not be pissed about that.
Would have been fine with him going to any other team really except the Yankees. It does now make them the team to beat, on paper, in the AL. Also with all of their media and fans ripping into the Astros for cheating all offseason it's another punch in the face by them.
Who’s whining or pissed beside one poster in here. Not gonna names name. Happy for Cole and his family. Hopefully we had Cole best 2 seasons in his career. Only sucky part is he went to the Yanks but that’s bc I hate their f****** fans. Yankees do what Yankee does best. And that’s buying championships. But I’m sure if he signed with either LA team last night, ppl would have different comppaint about why Astros suck and that LA will be great next 5 years. Good luck to Cole in NY if he doesn’t hold up his end of the bargain.
Not sure why the Reds would want Correa and Reddick without getting some younger additional prospects. Correa will not stick around when he's a free agent, and it's not like they are in win now mode.
The Bill Buckner ball through the legs of managerial decisions. What an absolutely brutal blunder at the worst possible time.
I'm fine with some other team being the "team to beat" going into the season even if it was the Yanks. Rarely do the team that gets bestowed with that designation ever ends up winning it all.
Correa is a potential mvp caliber player when healthy. There are probably only a dozen guys in the league with his level of talent. Cincinnati is trying to win now, as evidenced by their acquisitions of Bauer and Gray. Correa makes them a much better team for the next 2 seasons. They also have a hole in RF, and while Reddick is no longer the really good player he was, he is still a viable everyday RF. I agree giving up Castillo for Correa favors Houston, but it’s not by a lot. If Houston includes a prospect (maybe a pitching prospect like Abreu or Javier who can help Cincy soon), it looks like a fair trade. If Houston can trade from an area of strength (having an utterly stacked lineup and 2 mvp caliber SS) to fill an area of weakness (Tor SP), it makes sense.
Been watching baseball for years and one thing I have learned is that there is no such thing as a sure bet in baseball. The favorite never wins, and it is always the team with the momentum. I realized this during 2002 World Series watching K-Rod (a rookie who no one knew) mowing down the Giants. Losing Cole hurts, but it does not make the Yankees the favorites, nor does it eliminate the Astros from contention. History has shown bloated contracts (especially from Boras) never pays off (see A-Rod, Giambi, Texiera, Sabathia, etc.). Good for Cole, but the Astros will be alright. In hindsight, Greinke was a huge mistake, and they should have resigned Keuchel to a deal.
you almost had my like and then you went and called Greinke a huge mistake! I think the Greinke add is even better now. We were never signing Cole, even without Greinke, so fans can put that to to bed. Great post otherwise
Moves: Trade Correa, Reddick, and a prospect for Castillo. Sign a 1B (Smoak, Flores, Zimmerman, Cron). Sign a RP (Harris, Treinen, Morrow). Trade prospects for Contreras. Opening day roster: CF Springer LF Brantley SS Bregman 2B Altuve DH Alvarez 3B Gurriel 1B Smoak* C Contreras* RF Tucker Bench: Diaz, Garneau, Toro, Straw Rotation: Verlander, Greinke, Castillo*, McCullers, Urquidy Bullpen: Biagini, Devenski, Abreu, James, Peacock, Morrow*, Pressly, Osuna
Even though Verlander and Greinke are clogging the payroll, it’s silly to view either move in a negative light. Based on free agent prices, both guys (Verlander at $70M/2yr, Greinke at $44M/2yr) are absolute steals, even factoring in the prospects given up for Greinke. Look at what Bumgarner gets this offseason, and that will give you an idea of what Verlander and Greinke would each cost in free agency. Luhnow is looking like a genius for locking those 2 guys up, even if no one is recognizing it.
Correa might be a win or two more valuable than Castillo assuming Correa plays a full season, which hasn't happened since 2016. Given the big difference in control between the two and the fact that Reddick has zero or negative surplus value, I would think the Reds would at least want some 50FV or better prospects to sweeten the deal. I don't see either of Abreu or Javier as having that kind of value right now, although each have the potential to do so.
Using $10M/war as an estimate, Reddick is roughly even with his contract, and Correa will have ~$70M in total surplus value over the next 2 seasons. Castillo (at 4 war/season) should have ~$100M in total surplus value over the next 4 seasons. So for the deal to be fair, Houston would need to include ~$30M in prospect value. That’s probably 2-3 guys like Abreu or Javier instead of just one.
The surplus value estimate for Correa seems high given what he will be paid the next two seasons and the actual value he has put up over the past three seasons (in view of his inability to stay healthy), but even assuming the difference is only $30M, I don't see even three prospects of Abreu/Javier value being equal to $30M given that 45FV pitching prospects are worth around $4-5M each.
If Correa is expected to have ~$70M in SV, why do you keep trying to trade him? Give Reddick away if he's roughly market value. There has to be better ways to save $7-8M in salary than trading a guy with $70M in SV. On Castillo...4*4*10=$160 Million. Betts will likely end up getting $57M in arbitration total (pretty sure he will set the max). I'm guessing Castillo's arbitration total will be closer $35M with inflation taking into account. That means Castillo's SV is probably closer to $125M using your assumptions and thinking Castillo will not get awarded close to the maximum ever in arbitration. While I like Correa, I'm not sure teams would be willing to treat Correa as having ~70M in SV in trades. For Castillo, yep Astros do this deal instantly. Rumors of Astros trying to trade Correa suggests to me Astros don't think he will rebound to what he was. Considering Correa's skill and contract, I would be very leery of trading for him if I was another team.
