Win probability is pretty easy to calculate for each inning, score, and men on base state as there have been a lot of MLB games played (provided you have the data in a user friendly format). Win probability added (WPA) is win probability after an at bat minus the win probability before the at bat. Springer's homer and double in Game 1 is where he gets his value according to WPA with everything else canceling out.
Let's just put the PITCHf/x strike zone out there and let everyone make their own judgments. Here's the link to last night's Game 5. Before looking at these maps, read the fine print: Spoiler: How to read these graphs. How To Read These Graphs (from the above link) These graphs only plot calls made by the home plate umpire. In other words, they only plot balls and called strikes. No other pitches or results are included. Intuitively, this provides a representation of the strikezone for each game. Each pitch is represented by a single dot. Green dots are balls and red dots are strikes. Pitches marked as belonging to a particular team (for example "bos" or "nya") are designated with different shapes. These teams represent the pitching team, not the batting team. So, a pitch marked "bos-Called Strike" was thrown by a Boston pitcher. These are from the Umpire's perspective, not the Pitcher's perspective. These strikezone maps are now drawn to reflect the 2015 zone "as called" to LHH and RHH hitters. These strikezone maps were drawn to the specifications of Mike Fast, a former writer for Baseball Prospectus who now works for the Houston Astros. These plots show actual calls superimposed onto dashed lines that represent the strikezones that all Umpires generally call. The dashed lines shift to represent typical deviations for LHH and RHH. Just going to put this out there explicitly: "These are from the Umpire's perspective, not the Pitcher's perspective." 1) RHH Graph. The red triangle in the upper-right between the solid and dashed lines has to be the "makeup call" for Cole's last strikeout. 2) RHH Graph. The red square on the right below that pitch is a very outside strike called for the Nats early in the game, I'd say first or second inning, IIRC. 3) RHH Graph. The two very far inside (left side of graph) red squares are the very inside "makeup makeup calls" against the Astros after the now-infamous Cole call in (1). 4) RHH Graph. I suspect the green square just inside the solid black box on the right at 2 ft up is the now-infamous Correa ball call. 5) LHH Graph. The green square well inside the bottom right of the solid black box was a particularly egregious ball the Nats suffered somewhere in the first half of the game. --- Feel free to look at other games previous on the site yourself. I think you'll find some pretty crazy calls going for and against both teams. I'd be mad if I was the Nats, but there's something going on here that transcends bias: incompetence.
There were bad calls both ways, all series long. I don't care about who has received a potential advantage with respect to umpiring. I just want to win tomorrow and live happily ever after. Can we please win??
Yeah, I was looking at those same stats this morning. Here are the top 10 with the pitchers factored in: 1. Springer: 0.27 2. Urquidy: 0.26 3. Harris: 0.24 4. Alvarez: 0.19 5. Smith: 0.14 6. Greinke: 0.11 7. Cole: 0.09 8. Yuli: 0.07 9. Chirinos: 0.06 10. Osuna: 0.05 I think when you factor in the number of games played and overall impact, it's between Springer and Harris if the series was over right now. Springer's numbers over the course of the series look great, but neither of his homers ultimately impacted the series that much. Meanwhile, Harris pitched in two of the most high-leverage situations in Games 3 and 4, coming in with two men on late in two different games with 3-run and 4-run leads and only one out. Combine that with his absurd body of work this postseason, and you could make a damn good case for him to win it right now.
They were 19-31 and had all this pressure on them and rumors of their manager getting fired. They acquire some low-cost Latin vets who kind of forced the team together to dance and hug and really change the atmosphere. Astros all the way, but I respect the hell out of the Nats and am fully aware of the weirdness that used to be when Harper/Werth/young Strassburg were all generally grumpy and loomed over everything. They've attained the type of chemistry that the Astros were able to achieve years ago, so I don't hate them for sticking to the shtick (baby sharking, dancing, hugging) even when it seems trivial. I think maintaining good chemistry is important for morale, especially if you never had it in years past.
He couldn’t even lift his arm or dress himself...yeah don’t see him pitching again this season and evening if he tries to I will be shocked if he’s effective.
About 30 of the last 50 posts people debating this question. Oh and watch out because you’ll surely have someone reply to you by saying “tomorrow?! it isn’t over yet!”
I would vote Altuve, but some think Springer. Maybe even Cole or Harris. I just hope it is not a Washington National.
And we had a trade agreement with the Nats last year for that douche until their ownership jump in and say no. That douche could have been the difference maker in our attempt to win back to back WS. Would be back to back to back now.
Assuming the Astros win, and things continue as they are going (all hypothetical, of course; one game at a time), I give WS MVP to Will Harris. Not solely for his WS contributions, which have still been huge, but as a tribute to his absolute clutchness throughout the playoffs. Let's run this down. In the entire 2019 playoffs, for Will Harris: Games played: 10 (most of any Astros pitcher) Saves: 1 (Osuna has 2) Holds: 6 (Next closest is Smith with 2) Strikeouts: 11 (for relievers, only James has more with 14) Innings Pitched: 9 (most for a reliever; Osuna second at 8.2) Inherited Runners: 12 (most) Inherited Runners Stranded: 11 (most) IRS%: 8.3% (I think people will find it hard to believe, but Josh James is a perfect 10/10 (IRS%=0.0%) WHIP: 0.67 (second behind Smith) Piece de Resistance: ERA: 0.00 in 9.0 IP (Yes, seriously. Only pitcher on team with a perfect ERA in the entire playoffs so far.) --- Will Harris: your deserving playoff MVP
I will say this: Rendon is the truth at the hot corner. Would it kill him to let a ball through? It's really annoying when the ball is hit so hard the camera can't keep up and he's over there making the play look easy.
Seriously. Thank God we've got our own Electric Slide Yuli over on the other side saving runs for us.
