If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

Of course they can get "pitching" but that is not what you said. You said they have the ability to get "great" starting pitching. "Great" pitchers aren't a dime a dozen.

 

NL has gotten more parity, and Tigers, Royals, and Orioles have already gotten rid of their best players. Should be more costly in free agency and trade market to get pitchers. I think Astros should be able to get one if needed next trade deadline, but more likely a rental, likely going to be costly, and maybe not an ace. I don't necessarily see this as a bad thing as Astros likely will be favorites in AL such that competitors are hurt more.

Scratches head. I think odds are good Chirinos is high on Astros offseason list.

 

There will be a lot of good pitchers available this offseason. They will not be as good as Cole but Houston will get someone and they will still likely be the WS favorite next year.

 

I'm all for resigning Chirinos, but I didn't read that post as that is who they should sign since the poster didn't mention him.

 

No... but that's where you have to trust this front office and coaching staff to turn guys who are simply good, or slightly underachieving, to great. Have they given you any reason to doubt their abilities based on their track record?

I completely forgot to mention CFM as one of those acquisitions as well... you should go back and read some of the fan comments from when the Astros signed him. Again, much like JV and Cole's rise, nobody expected him to turn into the pitcher he is now.

 

Sure. No doubt. That was baked into me saying that "I completely trust the Astros FO". All I'm saying is for people saying Cole won't ever go to the playoffs in Anaheim if he signs a 7 or 8 year deal with them this offseason is, slow your role.

Astros core post 2021 (right now)
Altuve- 3 years at 28 million ish per year
Bregman- 3 years at 20 ish million per year
Alvarez- - 4 years of club control- 3 years of arbitration
Tucker- 4 years of club control- 3 years of arbitration
Whitley- 5 years of club control- 3 or 4 years of arbitration depending upon when he gets called up in 2020.
Boatload of 40- 50 grade prospects on the farm.
So, that's like 2 pretty likely all stars at 50 million, 3 guys that could be all stars very cheap, and a boatload of interesting prospects that profile between league average and fringe all stars.

Anaheim Core Post 2021 (assuming Cole signs for like 8/35 per

Trout- 8 years at 35 million per year
Cole- 6 years at 35 million per year
Ohtani- 3 years- all at arbitration levels
Upton- 1 year at 28 million
So- that would be a cy young caliber guy, the best guy in baseball, and a 1 year middling OF making 100 million combined. They have a couple of highly, highly rated prospects and ownership willing to spend big money. I guess I like the Astros situation a little better, on paper, the day Cole signs his big deal post 2021, but that's more about trusting our FO more than theirs. If their top 2 prospects hit at a higher rate than Tucker and Whitley I think I like their chances more going forward b/c of the resource advantage, and because if you were picking from a pool of Trout, Cole, Ohtani, Bregman, Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker, Whitley and Upton I think the first 2 picks would be Trout and Cole, and I think Ohtani is more likely to put up more WAR than Alvarez or Tucker or Whitley, right now.

 

Lulz. Great attitude. The typical Minute Maid Astro fan.

 

You mean bandwagon fans.

 

Staying or leaving, I am fine as long as he is not going to join NY.

 

Agreed completely. The wheels don't fall off the bus this offseason, it's next, if some improving isn't done.

Gone: Cole- $14 million, Reddick- $13 million, $2 million from Yuli's declining salary, Joe Smith- $8 million, Rondon- 4.5 million, Catcher- 8 million, Will Harris, 4 million, Devo- 1.5 million, Marisnick, 2.2 million, MIley, 4.5 million, Mchugh 5.8 million. NOw- Reddick, Devo and Marisnick are still under contract but my bet is that we move on.
Total money gone- 57 million

Additional payroll commitments: Altuve- +20 million, Verlander- +13 million, Bregman- +12 million, Springer- +8 million, PRessley- +6 million, Osuna- +3 million, Correa- +5 million, Peacock- +2 million, Diaz- +3 million.
Total increased money in raises and Arb on guys likely to keep- 72 million.

So- we are 15 million higher in payroll for 20 than we were for 19. Wow. That's a big number. And we are absent (in ways that will hurt, not counting scrubs or marginal bullpen arms, or Marisnicks that will be replaced by Straw and probably be better):
Cy Young Caliber starter
2 catchers
4th starter
2 really good bullpen arms
3 bullpen arms that ate some innings. That's a lot of holes to fill for negative 15 million. That being said, I think everyone I listed in "additional payroll commitments gets paid and retained making your roster look like:

JV, Greinke, LMJ, Uriquidy, Peacock/Whitley/reclamation project to be named later
Osuna, Pressly, James, Perez, 2 of Peacock/whitley/reclamation project to be named later, Framber, Chuckles clown BIagini, random prospects
Catcher- Chirinos and Maldonado (I think they run them both back
Yuli, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Diaz, Toro
Springer, Tucker, Brantley, Straw, Alvarez,
26 man roster spot added. That means, if healthy, your playoff team where the you need 8 or 9 qualify arms and 9 or 10 position players is made up of:

JV, Greinke, Uriquidy, LMJ, OSuna, Pressly, James, Whitley/peacock/TBD salvage dude or deadline aquisition
Springer, Altuve, Brantley, Bregman, Yuli, Alvarez, Correa, Tucker, Catcher, with Straw and Diaz available for injury or positional swapping.

Yeah, that top 17 or 18 is probably better than anyone else out there, pending what the Dodgers do. If they sign Cole they are absolutely better than us. Even if they don't, I'm guessing that they are still at least as good as us, unless we do very well on the reclamation market or unless Whitley is really really good.

BTW- even with all those guys I listed as lost if they aren't replaced I still like this team to win between 102-115 games, depending upon luck and health.

 

Astros were 35 games ahead of Angels this year. Even swapping Cole, Astros are two healthy peak Trouts ahead of the Angels. Astros will lose some guys, but I have no idea where the Angels are going to find players.

 

If we continue to invest in the development of our pitchers, then we are golden. Brent Strom has worked wonders on many pitchers, including Charlie Morton, Wade Miley, Colin McHugh, and yes, Gerrit Cole (who was no where near this good in Pittsburgh). I do NOT think we should sign Cole at a record-breaking contract. It introduces too much concentration risk to our team and we will have to forego other critical pieces by allocating money towards Cole. We are seeing Cole's ceiling this year. There will be regression to the mean -- there always is. And then you have an overpriced albatross that can't be moved without giving up other assets alongside it. Better to preserve flexibility and optionality moving forward than invest $35 million plus per year in Cole.

We have a solid young nucleus with Whitley, Urquidy, Cionel Perez, and Lance McCullers (who many in this thread have forgotten about). Let's build off of that nucleus and add to it some veterans when we need to.

 

Hard to let Cole go, but we likely won’t have a choice. We can’t offer top dollar. I’m sure we’ll make a competitive offer, and it’s up to Cole whether he likes HOU enough to stay.

If we can finish off this series, seeing him go will be a LOT easier to stomach. Luhnow did not budge with STL on the Pujols front, so I’m sure we’ll have our price, and won’t go over it, for Cole as well.

Lets finish off this series and go from there.

 

For everyone penciling in LJM, just remember. He will be on a strict pitch count for the season. He will most likely not be a full time, every fifth day starter for the entire year.

 

I know this topic is about re-signing Cole but what about Harris. Would like to re-sign him too but I’m also afraid he will get his money elsewhere.

 

Harris is going to be the highest paid reliever on the market, even over Will SMITH- mark my words. I do not see him being an Astro again after tomorrow nights game.

 

The market for non-closers isn’t all that clear. The Astros have actually been one of the market-setters for this role since they started winning games in 2015.

 

I will bet you a lot of money that Will Harris doesn't get paid even $1 more than Will Harris.

Also, I really really hope there's no Game 7 in this case.

 

Sidenote: I think it’ll be interesting to see what deals the Astros could swing on SPs. I don’t think there’s any doubt that SPs want to come here to work with our staff. There have to be some high upside SPs who would be willing to come cheaper or on lesser years to gamble on themselves in HOU.