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[NY Daily News] The NBA Just Began Its War Against James Harden

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Os Trigonum, Sep 27, 2019.

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  1. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    for you conspiracy theorists out there

    https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/...0190926-2xsqfxhdlvcrtgqnwe4lq2gtaq-story.html

    The NBA just began its war on James Harden

    By KYLE WAGNER
    NEW YORK DAILY NEWS |
    SEP 26, 2019 | 7:04 PM

    The NBA G League will put into effect a small but laser-focused rule change this season. Players will take one free throw attempt regardless of how many points are on the line. That means a player fouled in the act of shooting a three will shoot one shot for three points, and a player completing an and-1 will shoot one shot for one point. The league says the rule is meant to address pace of play, which it will, but it will have the secondary effect of bringing unwatchable, foul-hunting offenses closer into balance.

    Players shoot about four or five percentage points better on the second free throw, and somewhere around six to nine percent better on the third shot compared to the first. This makes sense for obvious reasons: Taking a warmup shot or two makes a shot easier. By removing the second and third shot, players would live and die on that first, worse shot. That not only lowers the overall percentage, but consolidates the risk — one miss means no points. This would not only be good for the league, but necessary.

    If we take the pace-of-play change for granted, how else would the new rule affect the viewing experience while the ball is actually in play?

    The massive difference between the first and third shot would disproportionately affect some especially annoying players. James Harden, who uses the universally loathed stop-and-flail move to draw more three-shot fouls than any NBA team, would see the efficiency of those plays plummet. Enough to dissuade him from doing it? Perhaps not. But his reward for playing litigation ball would be lessened, which is a minor win for the good guys.

    [​IMG]
    The G League's new rule for free throws seems to have been created with players like James Harden in mind. (Rick Bowmer/AP)

    Despite the rapid rise of long-distance shooting over the past several years, the most efficient shot in basketball is not the three-pointer; it is the free throw. Time was, a high number of free throws meant a player was taking a beating. Eight or 10 free throws per game was the gold standard for a star player relentlessly attacking the rim in search of the second most efficient shot, the layup. The Jordan Rules would surrender points at the line, but extract blood in the bargain.

    In today's game, that is not always the case. Especially not in Houston. Players actively seek out any contact and quickly rise up for a shot they would not otherwise take. This is good strategy but bad viewing. Adam Silver told me earlier this summer that the league would not be looking at more radical changes to free throw efficiency, such as moving back the line, so total sea change is not in the cards for the free throw. But clearly, that does not mean they are above tinkering.

    On the whole, there are actually relatively few foul shots per game in the modern NBA. But that is mainly due to the game's shift beyond the arc. Can't draw fouls if you are far from the rim (unless you are James Harden). So rebalancing the value of the free throw is not simply about curtailing the raw number of free throws, but the way the game is played when players are not simply jacking threes.

    The counter-argument would be that fouls themselves are not fun to watch, and giving defenders any reason to foul more often is a net negative for the game. This does not pass the smell test, however, since the foul shot is so efficient that even a slight nerf to its effectiveness would not come close to making that a "good" outcome for the defense. The league shot 76.6 percent from the line last season. Knock that down by a few points (or by ten points!) and the offense still comes out on top. The league would have to shoot under 55 percent on free throws to underperform the median offense from last season.

    Put another way, fouling a 60 percent free throw shooter every time down the court would result in 120 points per 100 possessions. The best offenses in the league, the Warriors and the Rockets, scored fewer than 116 points per 100 last season. Turning DeAndre Jordan into a one-man Death Lineup does not seem like the sort of strategy that would catch on under this new rule.

    What does seem likely is that, when he needs a bucket late in the game, Harden would be less inclined to crash into any defender in his zip code and consider attacking the rim. Or perhaps he does not change his behavior, but more frequently comes away from the play with no points to show for the slip-and-sue. Either would be an improvement.

    [​IMG]
    James Harden draws a foul on a 3-point shot attempt against Memphis Grizzlies forward Justin Holiday. (Brandon Dill/AP)

    Free throws serve a vital and necessary role in the game by deterring defenses from crushing offensive players every possession. Very few fans want to go back to the days when the reverse armbar was a legal defensive position. But the calibration on the distance and difficulty of the free throw was made when the game was in its infancy and player skill was not nearly as refined. Beginning in the ‘50s, players were allowed three shots to make two once the defense was over the foul limit. It's safe to say players have improved over the last 60-odd years.

    The basic truth of the shot today is that it is far too efficient, and that perverts incentives for an offense. Players are too skilled, and attention is increasingly turned toward what works best. The league's free throw percentage could fall by 10 or 15 percentage points and a foul that results in free throws would still be an absolute win for the offense. The game is fundamentally broken if the Warriors offense would improve by leaps and bounds if Draymond Green, a 69 percent free throw shooter, shot two free throws every possession and Stephen Curry never touched the ball.

    That’s where we are today, and the reason Harden is completely in the right to play the way he does. It will take more drastic action than even this experimental rule to change that truth, but implementing it in the NBA would nonetheless be a welcome first step.​
     
    #1 Os Trigonum, Sep 27, 2019
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  2. Le$$

    Le$$ Member

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    and so it begins....

    [​IMG]
     
    #2 Le$$, Sep 27, 2019
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  3. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    How is it going to stop Harden (or anyone) from milking free throws?

    Let's just set the facts aside for a moment (namely that the leading scorer in the NBA every year also tends to be amongst the leading FT shooters. Eg Jordan had 11.9 attempts in his 37ppg season and Kobe 10.2 in hois 35ppg - shouldn't we see Harden's 11 attempts per game in a 36ppg season as par for the course?)

    All it will do is reduce Harden's FT attempt stat while his ppg stat stays put. He shot 88% last season. Up from 85% on his career. Given his work ethic, if this rule is ever introduced, I would expect to see him shoot 90%+ after putting in a heavy off-season on the stripe.



    More to the point, a dumb rule like this will INCREASE unwatchable hack-a-shaqs and late game histrionics - 1 miss and you've got the chance to make a big swing.
     
    #3 DrNuegebauer, Sep 27, 2019
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  4. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    I should have added: the "solution" is not to foul. Of course, if you don't play rough on great scorers, they burn you badly.

    If opponents don't get in Harden's grill on the line and foul his 3pt attempts, he steps back and burns them anyway. Pick your poison, but it is ALWAYS the defenders fault when a player is fouled and sent to the FT line
     
    #4 DrNuegebauer, Sep 27, 2019
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  5. juanm34

    juanm34 Member

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    A little too late NBA.....should of tried implementing this idea back in the hack a shaq days..:rolleyes:

    Another stupid idea by Silver. Maybe he should of addressed the moving screen instead?
    o_O
     
    #5 juanm34, Sep 27, 2019
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  6. JW86

    JW86 Member

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    Not everything is about Harden and this whole story by the author can be counter argued by a simple stat: free throw percentage. Harden is too good for this rule - which will never make it into the NBA - so not sure what the guy is trying here.
     
    #6 JW86, Sep 27, 2019
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  7. morpheus133

    morpheus133 Member

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    The upcoming G-league version reverts to "normal" free throw rules during the last 2 minutes of regulation and overtime, and and-1 attempts are still worth 1. Stats say that most players are worse on their first attempt so free throw % is likely to go down as a whole, which could encourage more fouling as the efficient play, especially against low % shooters. Also less there would be less rest time for the players with less free throws. But I don't think it will overly hurt Harden as much as this article thinks. He would have been the league leading scorer last year if you took away free throws from everyone.
     
    #7 morpheus133, Sep 27, 2019
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  8. glenadyll

    glenadyll Contributing Member

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    But hadn't you heard? Others earn their free throws while Harden just gets his wrapped with bows from his BFFs the refs. It is about time the league's blatant Harden favoritism is finally checked amirite!
     
    #8 glenadyll, Sep 27, 2019
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  9. sirbaihu

    sirbaihu Member

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    "The most efficient shot in basketball" is the free throw and they want to reduce the number of them. . . . NBA's gonna hate those lower scores.
     
    #9 sirbaihu, Sep 27, 2019
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  10. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    #10 ApacheWarrior, Sep 27, 2019
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  11. Patience

    Patience Contributing Member

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    The vast majority of Harden’s 3 point fouls ARE fouls. If opponents don’t like it, they shouldn’t crowd him and jump in his landing space. It’s pretty simple.
     
    #11 Patience, Sep 27, 2019
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  12. Riz

    Riz Contributing Member

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    After reading the article, this was my initial thought. You can debate if the player with very low FT% but overall good, should even be on the court during crunch time under this rule. One thing I see happening under this new G League FT rule is greater value depreciation of these players with low FT%. Imagine if this rule had taken place in the NBA during Shaq's prime years. Would he be benched during close games?
     
    #12 Riz, Sep 27, 2019
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  13. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    instead of the boxscore showing that Harden shot 12 free throws for 12 points, it would now show that he shot 5 or 6 free throws for 12 points

    war on Harden :rolleyes:
     
    #13 Reeko, Sep 27, 2019
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  14. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    I'm sure this NY Daily News "journalist" wouldn't be so offended by Harden's game if he were lacing it up for his Knicks. Dear young Clutchfans, please grow up to become sports media personalities so you can put all these carpetbagger reporters in their place and out of a job.
     
    #14 Spacemoth, Sep 27, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2019
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  15. FLASH21

    FLASH21 Heart O' Champs

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    I'm pretty sure the most efficient shot in basketball is the layup.

    Regardless, everyone sees Harden's game as annoying and obnoxious that's just the way it's going to be because he often plays below the rim and does not wow you with his immense or overpowering athleticism (unlike his newly rejoined teammate Russ).

    One day people will appreciate his game, but the entire ploy of him only getting points by going to the FT line has got to stop. You don't average 36 ppg by heading to the FT line 11x per game. Take the FTs away and it still gives you a NBA leading scoring machine.
     
    #15 FLASH21, Sep 27, 2019
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  16. BaselineFade

    BaselineFade Member
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    Harden may end his career as the most hated player in NBA history. I read somewhere last year that the league office gets more complaints about Harden's "cheating and manipulating" than all other players combined. Limiting him to 1 free throw does not seem like the best way to "get" him. The only way to limit him from the free throw line is if the refs start to completely swallow their whistles. His style of play repulses fans and media so much that it wouldn't shock me if the refs simply just stopped blowing the whistle whenever James goes up for a shot.

    If you watch a game at a sports bar outside of Houston, nearly every time James gets fouled you hear a collective " Oh my God!" " Why do the refs keep letting this happen" ect. This narrative is completely out of control.

    I don't think this free throw thing would work but maybe the next idea might.
     
    #16 BaselineFade, Sep 27, 2019
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  17. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    How Houston see James Harden
    [​IMG]

    How NBA fans/twitter/media see James Harden
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #17 J.R., Sep 27, 2019
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  18. BigShasta

    BigShasta Contributing Member

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    Lolol. Spot on. I can’t have conversations about Harden in public anymore.
     
    #18 BigShasta, Sep 27, 2019
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  19. Dankstronaut

    Dankstronaut Way, way out here.
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    At what point are we allowed to call on better journalistic integrity?

    Calling it litigation ball, foul hunting...the other side of that coin is Harden’s combo of size, handle, strength and shooting is basically unprecedented. At 6’6”-240ish he’s a BIG point. A mismatch. His left hand dominant handle keeps elite level professional defenders guessing, to the tune of several ankle breaking highlights every year...that’s to be ignored? He’s a damned tank, getting the ball out of his hands pretty much involves tomahawking his arms aka fouling. He drives to the rim 25+ times a game, with terrific results. And the core most reason you have to guard him out to halfcourt else he will bury open 3s all day.

    Yes, James Harden gets some extra credit on fouls because A) he’s a superstar B) he relentlessly puts defenders in terrible defensive position and C) he earns so many calls fairly. He drives 25 times a game, 20 times he’ll get hacked and people b**** because he gets 10 calls. People b**** over 1 call the ref anticipates, as if make-up calls do not exist. He was smart enough to turn the euro-step into a 3 point shot that often draws a foul from an off-balanced or ill-positioned defender...he’s supposed to take it easy on usage though?

    Or maybe the reason more of the world’s greatest collection of basketball talent doesn’t do the same thing is because they can’t. They don’t have the handle, the strength, the coordination or the accuracy to pull it off.

    I find myself repeating this line....”it’s called being great”.

    Get used to it haters. James Harden is one of the best to ever do it. Oh, and it’s not just Harden’s free throws, it will be everyone suffering a lower free throw percentage. So the nba is welcome to cut their nose off to spite their face.
     
    #19 Dankstronaut, Sep 27, 2019
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  20. jcf

    jcf Member

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    This article is flawed in so many ways.

    The author's "math" ignores that a large number of fouls are simply not called.
     
    #20 jcf, Sep 27, 2019
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