If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

Astros attendance was 2,857,367 this year with 15 sellouts (down ~1,500 per game and ~123k overall versus last year) coming off a tough compare with no World Series bump and no "guaranteed sellouts" with the replica ring giveaway. The fans stepped up, and I assume another title this year pushes them over 3MM in 2020 which has only been done 4 other times in franchise/MMP history.

There is clearly increased demand for tickets year over year. As a mini-plan owner (27 game weekend), there are fewer perks offered every year as they are able to secure more half and full season packages. If they were truly hurting at the gate, they'd keep us whole (select a seat, opening day, option to purchase all the playoff tickets, etc.), but they are confident in their ability to move product. This also doesn't take into account the dynamic pricing for in-demand games and other revenue creating additions they've made at MMP.

Win again this year, and I'm pretty sure they can afford to add to the payroll and make moves (Reddick/Greinke/etc.) to keep 2 of the following 3: Cole, Springer, Correa.

 

Yeah, this is the sort of decision where pro athletes tend to confuse me. I mean, any team with enough money to throw around can win a bidding war. I don't know what went into the Angels keeping Trout, but part of it presumably was with a lot of money, and here's this generational gem of a player sitting on a team that may lose 90 games this season. Cole will never have a chance to play on a team like this again. A team that added 100 strikeouts to his season. Stick around a few more years, win a few more championships and Cy Youngs, then go break some California team's bank, Gerrit.

 

Crane needs a go fund me page for Garrett Cole. I would donate to help keep Cole and pay some of the luxury tax.

 

Yes he is

 

I could see LAA or another big market team offering Cole around 38 mil a season. Something like 5y/200mil....quite a bullet to bite but I think that’s the range he’ll get. Maybe extended to 250 with more years, but Cole is going to break the bank for sure. Not something I could see Luhnow advising...but maybe Crane gives the go ahead to keep him. Our only hope to keep Cole is if Crane really wants him here. This is our window, and a front line for 3 years of JV, Cole and Greinke keeps us in the thick of things, so who knows. Curious what the betting odds are on him.

 

Just to put it out there. Here are the ramifications of breaking the luxury tax barrier:

In 2020, that barrier is 208 million.

“A club exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages. A club exceeding the threshold for a second consecutive season will see that figure rise to 30 percent, and three or more straight seasons of exceeding the threshold comes with a 50 percent luxury tax. If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.”

 

Luxury tax is calculated based on average annual value of contracts, so backloading deals is only useful to take advantage of time value of money, not avoiding penalties.

 

Thanks for posting that. I thought the draft pick penalties were steeper. So really it’s only money. Crane will nut up. He has at every turn. Dream Team baby! Hell, just dip into some of the equity; the club is easily worth several hundred million more than when he bought it.

 

Why does everyone think he'll go to the Angels when the Dodgers have a bunch of money coming off the books this year?

 

If the financial benefits of keeping Cole outweigh the cost of his salary AND the tax penalties, we keep him. If the opposite is true, he won't be offered enough to stay.

It is about $, after all.

 

He grew up as an Angels fan and they need pitching more than the Dodgers need pitching.

That being said, if all offers are equal, I expect he’d lean towards staying here. He know winning isn’t guaranteed as much elsewhere... also he may like pitching in the AL, where he doesn’t have to waste time batting or running the bases, vs. pitching in the NL.

 

Yankees fans have basically made it their #1 priority to speak Cole in pinstripes into existence. Watching Cole leave would make me sick to my stomach, but watching him as a Yankee would have me projectile vomit everywhere.

 

Marvelous. Guess he will be gone.

 

Depends on one's point of view. I assume most long pitcher contracts are backloaded in the sense that the last 2-3 years are mostly there to lower the AAV of the contract. Team gets time value of money plus lower AAV for first 2-3 years of the deal.

 

The whole Boras thing is so overblown it's not even funny, it's stupid.

Boras does what his clients tell him to do, and the client has final say, just like every other high-level agent in MLB.

Boras was Altuve's agent too, btw, how'd that work out?

eta: fun fact: Boras was Cole's agent when he got drafted by the Yankees in the late 1st out of HS and turned them down to go to UCLA

 

They've got the same problems we do. They're going to have to pay Judge probably north of 400 mil, Gleybar Torres is a 40 HR monster at 2nd base and Cole LOVES our analytics. The Yankees aren't even close to the Astros in that dept. He also is quiet and doesnt enjoy media much. I'm really not worried about them unless it is all about the money and just wants to wear pinstripes and compete. Couldn't blame him but I just have this feeling Crane isn't going to let this one get away. This guy had a one of the best years in the history of MLB. Crane gonna pony up. He likes Nationally televised games and sell outs.

 

to be fair, like 20+ of those are against the Orioles this year

 

And they quit playing them when? You cannot say the 22 year old isn't great.

 

Also, the estimated payroll per whatever site I just read, just with guaranteed contracts, arbitration deals and potential buyouts is estimated at $211.3 million for the Yanks. If they can trade Stanton they're going to drive a Brinks truck to Cole's house. This is also Paxton's last year of arbitration coming up and he's gonna get paid if he stays healthy...but he will be 30 or 31 with a long history of injuries so who knows.

 

Clients also rely on agents to get a sense of their value. An agent telling a player he has more value than he does causes all sorts of problems - see Keuchel, for example, who Boras completely overvalued and cost many millions of dollars.