Wait...slow down Cochise: I never said anything about Tucker as an OFer. I never said that Reddick is great. I also never used your stats that do not take into account positioning (this is kind of big in the age of the shift). I've asked multiple times how defensive metrics take the shift into account and I've never gotten any answer, much less a solid answer. If you know something about how it affects re: range, expected outs, and whatnot I would honestly love to hear it. Josh Reddick is not a bad RFer, he's good, not great, actually, I'm sorry if you feel otherwise, or have been told otherwise. I do love the bolded "4 SBs in 6 attempts" though as it's some measure to tell me he's a bad baserunner. But he's fine. I'd rather them roll Tucker out there in RF in the postseason, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if it didn't work out well no matter who they choose.
Hopefully we will see, but I would bet on getting 3-4 at bats a night in LA (ATL) for Yordan Alvarez. He isn’t THAT bad a fielder and he has nearly an 1.100 OPS.
Defensive metrics are one part of the equation. They are not as reliable as offensive metrics for a number of reasons. Reddick is a solid defensive player. He positions himself well, he breaks well on the ball and makes the plays that need to be made. Tucker has better tools but his coaches in AAA were not entirely enthused with how he broke on balls. Having said that, we should go to Tucker if he is a substantially better hitter in the estimate of the coaches and front office. Alvarez was fine in the outfield in AAA. He improved a lot since A. The main concern out there is him getting hurt because of how he closes on the ball. He is raw on playing angles and isn’t going to make diving catches... but he has a deceptive arm, good enough speed and generally makes the catches he should. The trade off between Reddick/Tucker and Alvarez is huge.... it is over .300 OPS with Reddick.
Reddick and the rest of the OF position themselves where they are told to. That's why I was wondering about metrics: If the RF is basically playing RCF, how does that affect his "metrics" when a ball is hit down the normal RF line and it takes a 200yd sprint to go get it. We've seen it several times this year. Alvarez in a large park he's unaccustomed to (like Dodger Stadium) with a flyball pitcher on the mound (JV/Cole/???) seems like a bad idea to me. If Hinch was all about that, why hasn't he run Yordan out in LF more than he has, which is not much at all? You think he's just going to throw him out there in the WS?
There are injury risks associated with playing him in the field, and we haven’t had any do or die type games. Yes I think it is very possible Hinch runs Alvarez out there for all three games and would be surprised if he isn’t out there for at least 2 of the 3 games. A .350 OPS difference is massive. While it is true they are told where to be in the outfield, I have seen Reddick shade or even move more during a pitch. Hinch has said Josh gets some leeway because he knows hitters and pitchers so well.
Oh no, I don't give a damn about injuries. Is a whatever offensive difference different than the plays he's not going to make? It's all situational. One ****up in the field could let them score ? runs....him being in the lineup could score us ? runs. If you could tell me how often they're hitting the ball to LF in the WS versus how often he doesn't get IBB and gets to hit...
For what it’s worth, Brantley has played 928 innings in left this year, so, about 103 games worth. He has 156 put outs, around 1.5 fly ball catches per game.
World Series? You better worry about the ALDS then the ALCS. Astros could very well lose to the A's in the ALDS.
Reddick picks up negative points for balls that are down the line, but picks up a lot of positive points for balls in RCF for DRS and UZR. DRS and UZR have had a hard time measuring Reddick's range as his positioning causes more noise, but are still fine for things like arm. OAA doesn't care where you are as it assumes team tells a player where to be. OAA only cares about how far a player has to run and the time he has to run to get the ball. Reddick has made about 4 plays less this year than he would have last year. Comparing DRS and UZR range stats with OAA suggests Reddick has lost a little range, but is having a good year regarding positioning. His ARM stats suggests he's not doing as well as he use to regarding runners snagging an additional 90 feet. Overall he appears to be only an average defender right now mostly due to the step back in runners getting an additional 90 feet.
My take is if Miley has a decent final start (lasts at least 5 innings and allows less than 5 runs) then stick with him. Otherwise gotta go with Urquidy on a short leash in DS/CS and a 3 man rotation in the WS. Interestingly, Urquidy has been worth 0.7 fWAR in only 35 innings (and 9.7k/9, 1.44bb/9), so his numbers on the whole are really good. If he maintained that performance over 175 innings he’s a 3.5 fWAR pitcher in line with what guys like Stroman, Marquez, Quintana, Kershaw, and Boyd have put up this season.
