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Former Astros Tracking Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by torque, Apr 4, 2016.

  1. vince

    vince Member

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    I came across this article about Brady Aiken. Man did the Astros get super lucky! Bregman has been so good that even Correa hasn’t been missed all too much these past two seasons, via injury this season or lack of production last year. Could you imagine two #1 picks that completely imploded; Appel just tanked and Aiken broke apart, though it seems Aiken is still trying to get his groove back on.

    But boy did the Astros hit a Home Run with Bregman. Bregman is legitimately challenging Trout as an MVP, and Trout is having his best season. Trout should still win it, but Bregman is the only one in the conversation!!!

    https://bleacherreport.com/articles...r-from-being-worst-mlb-draft-bust-of-all-time
     
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  2. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    I wish we could say that Bregman was always the plan... but even the most ****-eyed optimist would have a hard time believing that.

    In the end, the Astros were extremely lucky.

    Lucky that they had great doctors/radiologists/surgeons who were able to advise them (correctly) on Aiken's UCL (that at the time, he had zero knowledge of this nor zero symptoms of a problem).

    Lucky that him and his agent turned down the reduced contract offer that the Astros had to give in order to even be eligible for compensation the following year (i.e.- Bregman). If they take the offer, there's no way the Astros get Bregman the following year.

    Lucky that Dansby Swanson was thought of much more highly by the D'backs.

    And while this last point isn't just "luck"... it is intriguing to look back at the pre-draft profile of Bregman, as well as some of the comments by many knowledgable ones in here. Was thought of mainly as a high floor/low-ceiling type guy. Wasn't expected to have significant extra-base power. Plenty of concerns about him being a third baseman, vs. his natural position... given that Correa was on the cusp of being called up. He did show a pretty significant competitive side as LSU was in the CWS that year, which is something everyone recognized as an asset (although nobody would realize that he'd be the at the bad-ass level that he is now).

    You do need luck in this game... but how the Astros ended up with this version of Bregman was as unforeseen as any.
     
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  3. vince

    vince Member

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    I remember that high floor low ceiling comment. Not too much excitement, beyond hearing how it was a draft without a clear #1 talent. Heck, many folks here saw how stacked the Astros were at SS and 3rd base and thought the Astros should go another route. There was Moran, JD Davis, Correa, Nolan Fontana, Rio Ruiz....

    And again a perfect example as to why you draft best talent regardless of need.

    After all, This is baseball, one of the most difficult sports to really project amateur talent, regardless of tools. With the current system by Luhnow, it seems they are a bit ahead of the curve.

    I remember hearing Altuve say that Bregman was going to be a special player, and it made me do a double take, I had always assumed he was trade bait up to that point.
     
    #1983 vince, Sep 9, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2019
  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Bregman has far surpassed even my most optimistic hopes. I thought he’d be a 2-2.5 win perennial player with solid tools across the board but nowhere near the power he has shown. The fact that he is probably the best all around player in baseball after Trout is amazing.

    Bregman instead of Aiken was a lucky stroke, but that stuff goes both ways. Houston could have had Bryant instead of Appel.
     
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  5. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Dustin Pedroia was generally seen as the ceiling for Bregman, and nobody would have complained about that happening, but despite winning an MVP, Dustin Pedroia wasn't really an elite offensive player (but was an Elite 2B). I think Mark Loretta-esque was a high probability.

    Instead clearly his work ethic, love of the game, and smarts were off the charts (which Pedroia's were too).
     
  6. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Could have also had Benenintendi vs. Tucker (same draft).

    Don't even bring up Gio Mier vs. Trout...
     
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  7. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I love this type of prospect even though I never expected Bregman to break out like this. I don't think scouts are as good as assessing ceilings/projecting as they think they are. The high floor part suggests scouts think this guy is a lot better than similarly rated prospects now. Scouts love dreaming on players "what if this guy could hit". I prefer guys that hit.
     
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  8. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Alex Bregman was an interesting prospect entering the MLB draft.

    The general consensus among supposed experts was the classic "High floor and lower ceiling". However, in hindsight I really question the idea that everyone in the game really believed that. For one, he was projected to go 2-8 in the draft so he was a high pedigree player. Second, if you go back and listen to the comments made by Luhnow and the Astros brain trust, they didn't describe him in terms at all consistent with the narrative.

    He won a number of awards in high school and college, consistent with someone that was very good. He was high school player of the year (if I remember correctly), USA Baseball player of the year, Brooks player of the year.... etc.

    Something else I find interesting. I remember right after the draft, Peter Gammons of all people interviewed Jeff Luhnow about Bregman.... and Gammons said that he and Luhnow had asked the college players which player stood out the most and was the best player, and the vast majority said it was Alex Bregman.

    I never thought Bregman would be THIS good.
     
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  9. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Agreed.

    Scouts get enamored with the eye test and becoming prognosticators... "guy who may be scrawny now but has natural power that logically they must only get more powerful as they fill out and get bigger!"

    In the end, while nobody thought Bregman would bust out like this... he was still going to be a top 5 pick regardless of the ceiling/floor. He's also thus far the main showcase product of the Luhnow tanking years, as the 2011#1 pick (Correa) was "earned" just by being naturally bad at the end of the Ed Wade era. Ted would be the second showcase, if he continues to show improvement.
     
  10. vince

    vince Member

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    I’ve been seeing that Josh Rojas is living up to lofty expectations. Dude might have figured it out, his AAA coach mentioned that he’s regarded as a professional hitter, as he hunts for pitches. If it wasn’t for getting Greinke and the fact the team is stacked, I’d be bothered he was traded.

    Man Astros are churning out top flight talent all over. This thread is going to get real interesting as we follow all the former players in the organization.

    Best of luck to Rojas, as it says a lot that an organization can find gems in the 26 round for a guy not really regarded as a prospect, till this year.

    https://www.azcentral.com/story/spo...an-spark-offense-return-his-roots/1994362001/
     
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  11. Buck Turgidson

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    I don't think any/many people thought he'd develop consistent 30+HR power by his 2nd full season.
     
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  12. htownbball

    htownbball Member

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    Did anyone realize Patrick Sandoval has been up for some time now? Traded for Maldonado the first time. I was pretty pissed at the time as Sandoval was having a breakout year. Probably a backend starter.

    Edit: just saw the posts from Aug 5. And holy crap just watched video of him, kid is throwing 96 up there! He was 88-92 when we traded him but scouts said he might have more in the tank as he matured. His breaking ball was sharp as well. He might be better than originally advertised
     
    #1992 htownbball, Sep 10, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2019
  13. Buck Turgidson

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    Yep, didn't like that trade when they made it. He's 22 y.o.
     
  14. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Contributing Member
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    The stuff is there, but the numbers aren't. He had solid numbers in AA (1.05 WHIP, 14 K/9), but he had a WHIP of just under 2 in 60 innings in AAA.

    His MLB performance isn't worth writing home about so far in the MLB. He's had 7 outings, all between 3 and 5 innings. He's had 1 pretty good one, 2 okay, and 4 subpar. Probably wouldn't have helped the Astros this year in any meaningful way, but still a pretty decent amount of upside for a half season of Machado.
     
  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    It was a terrible trade. He’s only 22 and still likely has 3-4 years before his talent peaks. A Wandy Rodriguez career is a totally reasonable outcome for him. Giving up one of your 5 best pitching prospects (and probably 2nd best lefty) who has a good shot to be a decent #3 for a 1/2 season of a defense only catcher was silly.
     
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  16. Bear_Bryant

    Bear_Bryant Member

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    Mike Fiers gave up 9 ER's in 1 IP last night.
     
  17. Screaming Fist

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    27K% as a SP for Sandoval is really impressive. His K%-BB% is about the same as Berrios'. Bet if the Angels were interested in moving him they could get a whole lot more in return than half a season of Maldy.
     
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  18. asianballa23

    asianballa23 Member

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    msn likes this.
  19. awc713

    awc713 Member

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  20. Buck Turgidson

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    I have various mixed emotions about this. I'll always love the guy.
     

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