Astros placed INF Aledmys Diaz on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 17, due to lightheadedness and dizziness. Diaz felt the symptoms on the team bus Saturday and went to the hospital to be checked out. He's expected to be fine, but the Astros decided to play it safe and go ahead and IL him. https://www.rotoworld.com/baseball/mlb/player/20720/aledmys-diaz
Great post. I don't particularly agree with your conclusion, but its a well-supported argument. I tend to think that the pitching draft/development system has been more of a work in progression that the hitting side. Eshelman and Thurman are selections they would not make again. They've definitely gone away from the successful, big-program college starter with 4 average-ish pitches to more upside plays in recent years. Conversely, their hitting side acquisition and development program has been pretty bang on since day 1. A lot of the higher round picks could have even higher WAR numbers if upper levels and majors weren't so crowded. I think 8 years is enough tract record to say they're not excellent at starting pitcher development; that's not really an insult.
Track record only really says drafts from 2012 to 2015 (4 years not 8) have not been as productive for pitching as one would expect on average. I don't think what Astros did from 2012 to 2015 has much bearing on what they are doing now when there is a lot of evidence that they have changed how they draft and develop.
I would add that the sample is still at the point where 1 player (namely, Appel) would have completely changed the evaluation had he met expectations.
20 most exciting (highest ceiling) position player prospects in Houston’s system for next season: 20. C Colton Shaver: A move to catcher and 13 HR in 43 AA games is a very high ceiling prospect, even if he is a former 39th round pick. Only 5 catchers hit more than 20 HR last season in the majors, and they averaged 2.9 fWAR apiece. 19. C Miguel Palma: good size, a decent pedigree, early power, speed that speaks to athleticism, and a walk rate that bodes well for on-base tools. 119 wRC+, 4 HR and 9 SB in 50 g, all at age 17. Too far away to get too excited, but early returns are very promising. 18. RF Yimmi Cortabarria: profiles for plus power, one of the most productive hitters in the GCL (158 wRC+ in 70 PA). 17. C Nerio Rodriguez: another catcher with good size and a decent pedigree. Huge year in GCL, potential breakout candidate next season. 16. CF Luis Guerrero: Mildly disappointing debut, but he has a broad set of tools and there was enough post-draft hype that he is one to follow. 15. 3B Joe Perez: former 2nd rd pick showed the power he was drafted for and stayed relatively healthy to ease some of those concerns. Another potential breakout candidate for next season since this may have been a “get-healthy” year. 14. 1B JJ Matijevic: A lost season due to suspension but still a potentially special bat. Strikeout concerns. Seth Beer lite. 13. CF Ronnie Dawson: center fielders who can hit for power are a rare commodity. Strikeout problems are dimming his light but he hit 17 HR in 102 games despite a 31% k rate. Next season will be make or break. 12. CF James Nix: a lot to dream on. Overslot late round pick with NFL QB athleticism. Pro debut too small of a sample, will have to see what he does next season. 11. C Nathan Perry: 9 HR in 56 games with a plus defensive profile at catcher. Also took plenty of walks. Began the season at age 19. Lots to like, could be a Top 100 type with a breakout year in full season ball in 2020. 10. SS Dauris Lorenzo: Top 30 int’l signee with potential plus tools across the board. Only 16. Will debut in DSL in 2020. 9. 2B Luis Santana: elite contact ability, potential plus defense at 2B. Needs to stay fit while developing power, but could be Altuve-lite. 8. SS Grae Kessinger: Some may view him as a low ceiling player but I think the potential is there for him to hit for enough power to be a borderline star. Plus plus contact tool, solid defender up the middle. 7. CF Jordan Brewer: late bloomer college draftee with NFL wideout athleticism. Dreaming, you can see him being Andrew McCutchen. 6. SS Jonathan Arauz: scouts/evaluators still saying the power will come, and if that happens, he’s probably a star. 5. SS Jeremy Pena: broke out this year and .180 ISO went a long way to erasing concerns about his ceiling. Low walk rate is a mild concern but could begin next season in Corpus and could be a Top 100 guy by mid season. 4. 3B Abraham Toro: put it this way, he’s been better than Kyle Tucker in AAA, and they’re the same age. 3. C Korey Lee: I’m relying on Luhnow here. Underwhelming pro debut but catchers who can get on base and hit for average or better power are borderline stars by default. 2. CF Colin Barber: The hope is he can grow into 20+ HR while sticking in center. Another top athlete, his contact profile (why he was drafted highly and given $1M) is elite. 1. SS Freudis Nova: Still a Hanley Ramirez ceiling, although his middling full season debut stifled those expectations some. Still only 19, and he is still on track to have plus power and defense with speed and on-base skills. Need to see his walk rate and ISO go up next year.
Just who is Valente Bellozo? Why you Should Know this Name Back in 2010, when the Astros sucked in almost every way possible, many of us fans were looking for signs of hope. The minor league system was pretty barren, and most of the teams were deep into losing seasons. But there was one way ray of hope, and it was the Tri-City Valley Cats, who won their league title. At the heart of the celebration for each clinching win was a young heartthrob with dance moves by the name of Kike Hernandez. First came a rejuvenated farm system with tons of elite prospects at the full season clubs. Then came five straight winning seasons, and it’s almost like the exploits of the Valley Cats have been forgotten. In 2019, the college draftees at Tri-Cities have been meh, and the hoped-for breakouts of Jason Schroeder and Joe Perez have mostly been aspirational. But one guy who never had shown up on any lists turned some heads in the NY Penn League, and he sports a name that could work in a Puzo novel: Valente Bellozo. But just who is he? First, he’s not Italian, he’s Mexican, signed in July 2017. Born in January 2000, Bellozo spent most of 2018 in the DSL, with some nice numbers over 51 IP. He debuted this year on June 14, in the NY Penn League, mostly going against recent college grads and international players older than him. He dominated immediately, and over 11 outings he really never let up. In each outing, he tossed between 3 and 5 IP, with a max of 77 pitches. His ERA/FIP and xFIP at Tri-Cities looked like this: 1.39/1.65/2.25. That’s elite. His xFIP is always going to be higher because he never gives up home runs. Literally. He’s never given up a long ball in 100 IP over two seasons. He does so without generating extreme GB rates. His K/BB in Tri-Cities was 58/10. Again, that’s elite. After his 8/11 line (4 1 0 0 0 8) I awaited his next appearance. But his next appearance came at QC on 8/17 (4 2 0 0 0 5). There’s not much in terms of scouting reports available. But the key factor here, besides the clear statistical dominance, is age. He was born in the year 2000. The Tri-Cities squad had two other pitchers born in this century. The only other guy on Quad Cities with a 2000 birthday is Freudis Nova, and we all know about him. From the stat line, Bellozo seems to be a polished 19 year-old with an advanced repertoire/approach. He’s not walking guys, and while his K rate is strong (35%), it’s not a vulgar, Josh Hader/Stan Javier-type of K rate above 40%. He’s got a couple more weeks, plus the postseason, for which QC has already qualified. It’s worth tracking closely how he does, and maybe a few scouting reports will pop up. For a comp, think Franklin Perez, the crown jewel of the Verlander trade. His international signing was under the radar, like Bellozo. He moved very quickly through the lower levels on the basis of statistical dominance and control of the strike zone. His stuff was never elite, but he commanded his pitches and had a mature approach for his age. Like Bellozo, Perez almost never had a bad outing, Perez lacked the kind of helium of other young arms who had 70 grade fastballs, but ended up in the top 50 range by the time of the JV trade. It’s not inconceivable that Bellozo would find his way into top 100 lists if he keeps this up in 2020 at Fayetteville, and if he stays healthy next year he should crack the 100 IP mark. Bellozo has been so good the past 10 weeks that he’s demanded our attention. He has it. Let’s see how he closes the season.
The Perez comp is silly. Perez got a huge bonus as one of the top international signees that year. He was definitely on the radar from the beginning. If they want to compare him to someone, maybe Jose Urquidy makes more sense.
Opinions vary. I personally think he will eventually be a very good defensive 3B. He hasn’t been playing baseball as long as typical prospects have and he has been moved around the diamond a bit. But he is a very good athlete with a very good arm, so I think in his prime he will be great.
Defensively he is adequate with the potential to be even better. He has improved his positioning with experience.
