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Beto for President

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Air Langhi, Nov 6, 2018.

  1. RayRay10

    RayRay10 Houstonian

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    Nate Silver does a good breakdown on why Beto (and Mayor Pete) is struggling.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bulletpoint-beto-orourke-doesnt-have-a-base/

    But when you actually look at individual-level voter data, you find something different: Only 12 percent of Democratic primary voters are young and white and moderate. That’s far fewer voters to go around, especially when you’re also competing with, say, Pete Buttigieg for the same voters.



    What gives? Well, these various characteristics are correlated with one another, so you can’t just multiply the different numbers together to come up with the right number of voters, which would imply that they were independent from one another. And they’re correlated in ways that are not helpful for Beto (or Buttigieg). Younger Democrats tend to be more liberal than older ones. And white voters — not all whites, but the ones who vote in Democratic primaries — are more liberal than minorities. There are someyoung, white, moderate Democrats, but not as many as you’d expect.
     
  2. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    ouch

     
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  3. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
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    Ugh. Get your ass in the senate race, Beto.
     
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  4. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    He isn't going to beat cornyn. If those numbers are accurate then the dems should just put beto as the candidate. If the dems get cali, ny, and texas the republicans can't win. He has been pretty disappointing in the debates.
     
  5. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
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    Texas would be a game changer, but if 2016 held the same and Texas went blue, all the Republicans would need to do is flip either Nevada (2 points), Minnesota (2 points), or Virginia (5 points) and they still win.

    Anyway, it's possible 2020 is a down-ballot blood bath for Republicans like 2018 was. Beto could beat Cornyn if the Dem nominee is strong.
     
  6. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Beto announces campaign re-launch and he can't even get a necro-bump?

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/beto-o...l-paso-shooting-live-stream-today-2019-08-15/



    Anyway, if he really follows through with this, I like his relaunch for a few reasons.

    1. He can't win the primary by continuing to do what he's been doing. His candidacy has all but died already. So, to have any shot at all, he needs to try something different, and campaigning in uncontested states is different.

    2. Following Trump atrocities around, he can take some of the free press Trump gets.

    3. Even ultimately losing the primary (which I still expect), he can help the Democrats by being the attack dog. He can go negative on Trump and let the eventual winner focus on a positive message of how they'll make the country better.

    4. I think he's a true believer when it comes to denouncing the human costs of Trump's policies. He'll have more fun now that he isn't playing to not lose, and he'll be more genuine. I'm sure he's going to get derided hard by Trumpers as an SJW. I'm sure it'll even get tiresome for liberals. But it won't much matter.
     
  7. HTM

    HTM Member

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    2018 had everything going for Beto and he still couldn't beat Cruz. I don't think he has a chance of beating Cornyn unless something dramatic happens.
     
    dmoneybangbang likes this.
  8. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
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    2018 was a mid term which is notoriously bad liberal turnout.
     
  9. HTM

    HTM Member

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    This is nonsense. Historically, midterm elections are almost always bad or disastrous for the party which won the White House.
     
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  10. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
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    I'm not sure why you're arguing with me. I don't believe Beto would beat Cornyn, but he would have a hell of a lot better shot than anyone else, and in the process would likely help a lot of down ballot Dems. Plus his Presidential prospects are dim at best. Further, the statement that midterms are less than ideal circumstances for liberals is not controversial, it's a well documented and understood phenomenon. Trump may have given liberals their best midterm turnout in a very long while, but that doesn't change that fact it was still a midterm and turnout in 2020 will blow 2018 out of the water.
     
  11. HTM

    HTM Member

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    Because you put forward the idea that 2020 could be “a down ballot blood bath for Republicans like 2018 was. Beto could beat Cornyn if the Dem nominee is strong”

    2018 was a midterm election year following a Republican Presidential victory. That was a best case scenario for a Democratic upset. Turn out is nearly always better for the party that lost the Presidential election. Those conditions will not be present in 2020. It completely flies in the face of logic to maintain conditions will be better for a Democratic upset in 2020.

    Your theory regarding liberals and midterm elections needs some sourcing.
     
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  12. dmoneybangbang

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    Beto never really stood for anything tangible other than "I'm not that guy". Texas seems ripe for the takin' but the Dems have this uncanny ability to crash a one car funeral procession.
     
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  13. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking
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    [Educational Post]
    False. Liberal enthusiasm was at a high and most Democrats at that time, like fools, thought Trump was a Russian agent. Off-year elections usually favor the out-of-office political party big time. The fact that you don't know this basis tenet casts major doubt on all of your political opinions.

    GOOD DAY
     
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  14. bigtexxx

    bigtexxx Contributing Member

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    Beto lost to Ted Cruz.

    BWAAAAAHAHAHAHAHA

    ...and after 2016, the liberals are still clinging to their polls? **snort**
     
  15. leroy

    leroy Contributing Member

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    Thought this was an interesting gambit...

    O’Rourke attends Arkansas gun show

     
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  16. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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  17. glynch

    glynch Contributing Member

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    Has he had his teeth cleaned lately?
     
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  18. Roc Paint

    Roc Paint Contributing Member

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    For the love of God please do not allow this jack ass into the White House
     
  19. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    Texas Dems need to rebuild their ground game.

    A guy from El Paso prob won't cut it, but he should at least try.

    If he succeeds, that's an actual accomplishment and could be spun as the guy who flipped Texas into a purple state.

    Right now, he comes off as a well-intentioned, yet ultimately entitled white who speaks well enough but has nothing to back anything up.
     
    FranchiseBlade likes this.
  20. MiddleMan

    MiddleMan Contributing Member

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    Beto and Castro 2020. Open borders and gun confiscation.
     

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