Beer was a late first round pick. Teams should have looked closely at him. He's going to have to hit a lot to be worth a lot in the majors to be valuable. He's got a little over half a year in AA. While I expect Astros to have liked him based on his batted ball profile, half a year in AA has not historically been enough for teams to treat a bat-only prospect as a guy who will likely hit in majors instead of a late first rounder. Rojas hasn't been in the AAA long. He has a little more than half a season in the upper minors doing very well in traditional stats. He should be on the radar, but can't remember Astros trading a guy that scorched ball in upper levels for half a season that had a nothing traditional scouting pedigree before (not counting Rule 5 crunches at end of season). Seems like a guy Astros have valued more than other teams which makes it hard to trade for value without a longer track record. Both of these guys I expected Astros to value more than other teams and their prospect rankings (with Rojas having a little more uncertainty).
I really would take all of those lists and publications with a serious amount of suspicion. Yes, Dauri Lorenzo is expected to be one of the Astros top 20 prospects to begin his minor league career based on his tools. He isn't a "can't miss prospect" and any further evaluation is really going to be worthless and any ranking as well as he is very young and raw and it will depend on how he responds to professional pitching. Rivas and Uceta are a couple of very young players that no one knows what to expect from. They are worthy of following but that is about it. Cal Stevenson is a 23 year old in A+ ball. He doesn't really have any power but can draw a walk and put the ball in play. That is a nice but not enough to make him someone worthy of much at this point.
List of prospects remaining in Houston’s system that received a bonus roughly what a player drafted in the top 2 rounds would receive: C Korey Lee C Juan Santander 1B JJ Matijevic SS Yorbin Cueta SS MiguelAngel Sierra SS Freudis Nova SS Dauris Lorenzo SS Anibal Sierra 3B Joe Perez OF Kyle Tucker OF Colin Barber OF Ronnie Dawson P Forrest Whitley P Cionel Perez P Riley Ferrell P Akeem Bostick P Jayson Schroeder P Angel Macuare P Elian Rodriguez That’s 19 pedigreed prospects. A rule of thumb I use to gauge the health of a farm system is an average team should have 15-25 of those guys (given a team picking in the middle or back of the draft can net 4-5 of those guys each year, and a proper farm should have 4-5 years worth of those guys in its pipeline). When that number dips below 10 at any point, I will officially be worried about Houston’s ability to sustain a contender beyond the following 2-3 years.
I kinda like what they have pitching wise in the minors Bielak/Ivey/Javier/Paredes/Conine etc... Lee gave them a top notch Catching prospect. But they're thin now with position player prospects. I expect this to be restocked in next yrs draft.
I remember when Luhnow took over GM duties. He said guys in the Minor league are there to help the Astros team, either by earning a spot in the team or via a trade chip. And Luhnow actually is delivering.... Not all of his moves have paid off, but he is quick to extract value when there is any remaining. And I don’t think Luhnow sets out to do highway robbery, one reason he has built quality relationships with other teams. Luhnow has been quoted as saying, and I paraphrase, he loves it when the prospects he trades away do well because it’s good business...
Big opportunity for Arauz. Only about 20 games left but if he could have 100 stellar AA PA he makes his Rule 5 case more interesting.
Not sure if we're kind of saying the same thing. That the Astros farm teams win more because they have better 3rd tier depth, is because they've developed as such more so than drafted as such, and developed to increase their chances of becoming 2nd and ultimately 1st tier. That's what this stellar article is all about: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php...os-revolutionizing-player-development.299284/
Put it this way: a AA team full of 4th round draft picks in their 3rd full season would probably be a winning team. My comment is that Houston has winning farm teams because they have an inordinate amount of 3rd tier prospects: guys who signed for $200k-$500k, guys who aren’t gonna be in the top 30 and probably profile as Org depth or bench players in the majors, but who do well in the minors. So it’s that they’ve done well maximizing the number of those guys they have, not necessarily being better at developing them. Example: Nick Tanielu was an overslot signee who was taken in the 14th round but required a bonus more in line with the 6th round. He’s probably not been developed any better than he would have elsewhere, but Houston got a 6th rounder in the 14th round. He’s not a likely everyday big leaguer and he won’t show up on any prospect lists, but he is more than able to be an everyday player on a winning AAA team. The system is full of guys like that.
The Stros are going to have to start spending real money for international talent. Maybe the draft keeps things up, maybe Luhnow is that good, but....
He is spending what he can spend. The cap really limits (eliminates) flexibility. Their haul this year (Lorenzo and Santander) was on par with their bonus pool allotment.
International scouting (not so much money) is going to be incredibly important, given that they will be drafting in the back end of every round.
As long as they keep producing players like Laureano (.284 21 HRs), Rojas (coveted in both Greinke and Bumgarner scenarios), James (effective in post-season), Urquidy, Straw (12th round)... and that’s just the last couple of years off the top of my head, then I’m all for it.
On the international side they've gotten at the very least decent trade assets out of Jorge Guzman, Albert Abreu, Jorge Alcala, and Hector Perez. They have similar assets in Jojanse Torres, Cristian Javier, and Enoli Paredes still in the system. Bryan Abreu is a little better than those guys, while Jose Rivera and Armenteros are probably a little worse. I think Albert Abreu got the biggest bonus of that group at $185K. Now if only they were good at signing international position players...
I kept hearing his name in proposed Yankee trades, but no other team wanted him. So sad for the Yankees.
