(FiveThirtyEight) Rockets will be the best in the west

Yea. Blazers and Nuggets got advantageous playoff seeding last year. They wouldn’t have made it past the first round if they had to play GSW, Rox, or Utah.

 

They've never needed to pump us up before to discredit us later. They just change the narrative later, consistency and accountability be damned. Remember how no one predicted us to do well when we signed Ryno and EGo? "No defense! They're always injured!" And everyone's predictions on OKC had them solidly as a playoff team? Then at the end of the year they gave the MVP to Westbrook because he played with scrubs and "exceeded expectations" while Harden was playing on a stacked team.

 

When the updated 538 rankings come out, should we make another thread or post in this one?

 

I disagree. Whiteside as a backup? That dude is a force when he has his head on straight. Bazemore and hood are good complimentary pieces to their big 3. Portland will be right in the mix with everyone else IMO.

 

Lol. The shitty Blazers and Nuggets.

 

So on one hand 538 says we will be the best team, but then in the other hand 538 says Westbrook will be a huge liability? Talk about hedging your bets. these guys are the proverbial "im glad I was wrong" analysts!

 

They never said he was a huge liability. "Badly overrated" does not mean bad. The stat they posted still had him as a hugely positive player.

 

People really struggle with statistics. It's no wonder they hate them so much. They don't understand them.

 

Like with Tmac you judge him as a Rocket. Unfortunately Tracy was much more superior as a Magic.

WB will probably be as good as with OKC but with more efficient stats. Less usage.

 

To this day, 538 gets so much grief over a certain 30% probability of theirs that happened. Yet, these same people would probably bring an umbrella and not be shocked if it rains, if they hear that there's a 30% chance of thunderstorms on a given day.

Pretty remarkable.

 

People take this as an attack on Westbrook, but 538, like any good statistician wants perfection. It's not about Westbrook nor the Rockets (I'm sure they like Morey for example) it's about constantly striving for more accurate data. They didn't just suddenly realize they were wrong about Westbrook with their models, they've known it. They've been trying to perfect their data models. Why the pursuit of better data makes people so salty is beyond me.

 

Probabilities are the most easily attacked.

"70% of outcome X, 30% of outcome Y."
Outcome Y happens.
"LOL YOU ARE SO STUPID TAKE THAT FOR DATA!"

 

A-****ing-men.

 

It intrigues me though how we are so different.

When I come across stats that I don't understand they fascinate me and I want to understand them. It's not an endorsement of them, it's a marveling at the effort at the data collection and processing to try to find meaning in the numbers and use them to project. Others see them and laugh and call them stupid and revel in their imperfection.

 

It's really frustrating. It's not even "statistics." It's just: "We project them to do really well. When our model uses a different variable that likes Westbrook less than the one we're using, then they'll do less well."

 

Context is key

 

GSW and LAL.

Injuries IMO.

 

Has to be my biggest pet peeve.

Especially since they actually beat the market on this prediction. Other forecasters had uncertainty 2-4%. That singular variable is great data point to a strong model.

 

I was not familiar with that term. Thanks for linking it.