I have a feeling (especially since its Habberman reporting) this story is put out there by Trump to try and play games with Iran to chest pump... thinking that this game will lead to them kissing Trumps feet & Trump getting some a holiday named after him for saving the US from a massive war. .... Regardless, this is not going to have the affect Trump thinks it will. Iran will take this sudden move to defcon 5 after shooting down a drone as an escalation that will cause the US to LOSE the support of our allies in the region and make the US highly highly vulnerable in Iraq & Afghanistan. Trump is treating this like a game like a twitter fight with Rosie O'Donnell. Alot of US military are in deep deep danger tonight overseas in Iraq & Afghanistan. Trump is a freaking moron & is going to get a ton of people killed here much much sooner than anyone could have predicted. Best case scenario is Trump capitulates to Iran, lifts sanctions, and then here at home just lies & says he won because he's Jesus Chris Reincarnated.
We wouldn't get into a ground war (I hope) especially after Iraq, but if we did it's important to remember they lost a war to Iraq and have dealt with heavy sanctions for decades. The general consensus is that we would roll through their military as easily as Iraqs -- the big problems come afterwards. I expect we'll hit all the possible nuke sites and other important military facilities and there will be nothing to stop us. They have acquired some advanced tech but it is limited and wouldn't be effective against US weapons. For example their top fighters are arguably a small fleet of F-14s we sold them in the 70s.
I don't think people realize how modern and huge Iran is as a country with thousands of US citizens there at any given time. Assuming you are going to Tehran, you'll be around plenty of Americans. If the sh$% hits the fan, I'd check in with an embassy of one of our allies. I think you'll be fine even if Trump goes insane and follows through on a strike. The fighting wouldn't be anywhere near Tehran.
The NYT stated that the WH did not object to them releasing the story. Hence why I made the comment about this being an intentional response to “send a message”. Lord..... Also.... Trump is so predictable and just repeats himself on everything. He’s trying the fire and fury nonsense he did with Kim Jung so he can later claim to be the savior of the US later on when he assumes Iran will give Trump the same pageantry that Kim did. Only in this case, Iran is a whole other animal. This faux strike will be seem as an escalation not a “savior Trump shows mercy... lets go kiss the ring”. I’m fully expecting a response in the next two days now, maybe in Iraq. However.... I think someone is a little too fired up about Bol Bol. Calm down with your murderous off the cuff remarks please.
Looks like we found the leaker. DUBAI (Reuters) - Iranian officials told Reuters on Friday that Tehran had received a message from U.S. President Donald Trump through Oman overnight warning that a U.S. attack on Iran was imminent. “In his message, Trump said he was against any war with Iran and wanted to talk to Tehran about various issues ... he gave a short period of time to get our response but Iran’s immediate response was that it is up to Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali) Khamenei to decide about this issue,” one of the officials told Reuters on condition of anonymity. The second official said: “We made it clear that the leader is against any talks, but the message will be conveyed to him to make a decision ... However, we told the Omani official that any attack against Iran will have regional and international consequences.”
Since we blew off the nuclear deal with Iran, they probably don't put much stock in "talk" with the United States. . . .
I think they are smart enough to know what Trump wants... which is a moment of pageantry where him and the Iranian leader shake hands in front of a camera, and Trump claims he saved the world from imminent doom. Then Iran goes about restarting their Nuke program underground, and leaves that issue for the next president. Trump is stupid enough to think Iran is North Korea, and he’s stupid enough to believe the Kim Jung show actually worked politically for him. Most important thing to know about Trump the president is all he cares about is the show and ratings. He has no discipline to actually follow through with the hard work necessary to govern. The reality show won’t work with Iran in the same way it ended up with Kim Jung, and there will be real consequences with this engagement. He’s playing games with a lot of lives right now and he has no idea or real strategy other than tv ratings.
I agree mostly, but: 1) no handshake expected; 2) I do think Trump is averse to war. This sounds like when he fired missiles at Syria: it was for show, and he warned them first. It doesn't seem stupid, actually. If he were bloodthirsty, we could have had blood by now. Is Trump really the one "playing games with a lot of lives," or is it our intelligence "community"? Don't forget: our intelligence "community" is doing hostile acts to Russia, without telling the "stupid" president. Hostility source: intelligence community. Hostile acts and not telling the President are OK if we individually hate the target of hostility? Well I, as an American voter, do not want hostile acts against Russia or Iran. The intelligence "community" does not represent me with their don't-tell-the-president hostilities.
Our intelligence community actually explicitly stated that Iran was abiding by the nuclear deal and there was no reason to pull out of it and Trump pulled out of it and is the only reason why we seem to be 10 steps closer to an actual armed conflict, so in this specific case, the intelligence community's findings would actually prevent war.
They just wanted to make him look like an ass. They were happy to get closer to war! Would you agree with this: Trump had a chance to draw blood and declined? Let's see who's beating the drum for war (besides CNN and CIA puppet Pompeo) today.
Dude, what you are stating is pure conjecture. The reality is the entire chain reactions that got us where Trump had to neg on the last second an a military strike on Iran all stemmed from Trump negging on a deal that the CIA explicitly told Congress Iran was abiding by. If their motivations for war was so immense, you don't think that would out trump their percieved(your narrative) desire to make Trump look bad? In reality, career CIA analysts are not shareholders or recievers of campaign donations from defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin and Raytheon.
Your conjecture: "Trump had to neg on the last second an a military strike on Iran." What do you mean he "had to"? Was someone was forcing him? And you're back to defending the CIA? The intelligence "community" (in wtf sense is it a community??) now gets to say, "Alas, we must kill again." "Because Trump is so stupid, war is now inevitable." No it's not. We have no war with Iran, no war with Russia, no war with North Korea, and there is no inevitable march toward our (alas!) bombing of any of those countries.
Someone very cynical may wonder if this factored in trump's flip flop decision after military action had started... Which was followed by this:
Let's not confuse Bolton as the whole of the US Intel Community. I don't want any military conflict either, but the action of the POTUS put us here by ignoring the US Intel Community that Iran is abiding to the Nuke Deal and deciding to pull out of that deal, and by installing two war hawks in his Admin. Also, if the report is true, the POTUS decided to use thread of military action as negotiation to start talk and so clearly not as a last resort. Good that he chickened out and but history said he will continue to repeat these heavy handed threats... how long can you play this game before these sparks blow up???
Dude... We were on a sustainable track with Iran. Zero threats of war, no means of uranium enrichment towards nuclear armament for at least a decade with IAEA snap inspections to confirm, means for the Iranian people to actually be involved in the Western economy and Trump threw all that advancement in sustainability out the window and now we have a daily "hold on to your butts" clenching feeling that the next subtle move could lead to direct war with the most powerful military the US could face since WWII. If the CIA wanted to push for war, they had the means by going along with the President. If you feel as if they have no qualms outright fabricating intelligence to start wars why the hell wouldn't they take the PERFECT opportunity to side with Trump that Iran in negging on the deal? Why? How does your narrative cope with those events? You think career CIA analysts are so petty, that their multiple decade long ambitions of starting wars according to your narrative is slighted by wanting to irk Donald Trump?
