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[ESPN/MacMahon] 'There's too much damn turmoil': An unsettling vibe surrounds these Rockets

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by J.R., Jun 17, 2019.

  1. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    The nuggets posted a 115 ortg vs Portland this year
     
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  2. TipsyDixit

    TipsyDixit Member

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    And they had the higher Ortg in the series which is anomalous
     
  3. Jay Craft

    Jay Craft Member

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    It was reported that Tilman made everyone ride 1 bus to games when its normal protocol to have 3 buses.
     
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  4. Mr. Space City

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    The Offense was a problem tho.

    Rockets lost game 1 104-100 and lost game 5 104-99.

    You have to score more than 99 and 100 points against the warriors and if you hold the warriors to only 104 points you should win.

    The main problem with the offense was capela being useless without a wide open alley oop (that the warriors took away) and CP3 not being the offensives superstar he was in the past.
     
  5. cheke64

    cheke64 Member

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    He's just eco conscious. I don't see a problem with that.
     
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  6. harold bingo

    harold bingo Udoka Only Fan
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    You can't just ignore pace like that. If the pace is 80 then scoring 99 points in a game is incredible offense. If the pace is 100 it's terrible offense. It's all about pace.
     
  7. Mr. Space City

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    The average pace of the series was 95.
     
  8. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    ORtg By Game:
    Game 1 = 104.71 (L)
    Game 2 = 117.58 (L)
    Game 3 = 137.25 (W)
    Game 4 = 113.02 (W)
    Game 5 = 105.99 (L)
    Game 6 = 116.74 (L)
    Average = 115.88

    Against Utah:
    Game 1 = 123.60 (W)
    Game 2 = 117.64 (W)
    Game 3 = 103.07 (W)
    Game 4 = 99.35 (L)
    Game 5 = 102.15 (W)
    Average = 109.16

    Playoff All-in average = 112.82
    Playoffs ORtg = 110.9 (average is not the same as this, this is i think total points/total possessions)
    Playoffs standard deviation = 11.30

    Regular season AVERAGE of games Ortg = 111.42
    Regular season ORtg = 116.25
    Regular season standard deviation = 10.97

    Note the total playoff Ortg is lower than the all-in average, because you really shouldn't do it by averaging to see it overall, although given the sample size there can be arguments made both way. They played 11 games. In 5 they topped their regular season ORtg. In 6 they were below - half of those against the Jazz, half against the Warriors.

    The data is interesting in some ways. They were better against the Warriors. This kind of confirms the eye test. The Jazz "strange" style which didn't work at first got increasingly better, and the Rockets got increasingly worse at trying to do anything to counter it. Against the Warriors they lost two games where they played better than regular season offensively - so pretty solid. But the Warriors are even better offensively so not that surprising. Obviously there will always be some up and down. Interesting that the standard deviation is basically the same.

    I didn't have time to look at a bunch of the top teams. I wonder of the top 10 teams in terms of ORtg, what their standard deviation is throughout the season, and then in the playoffs.

    To me, they need more offensive variability, in an attempt to lower the volatility/standard deviation of offensive efficiency. They also needed to be better defensively.
     
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  9. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Quick math...

    Standard deviation on regular season games ORtg

    GSW = 11.29
    Bucks = 10.39
    Raptors = 10.27
    Blazers = 10.88
    Nuggets = 11.77

    Rockets = 10.97

    Standard deviation on playoff games ORtg

    GSW = 10.32 (down)
    Bucks = 11.12 (up)
    Raptors = 9.98 (down)
    Blazers = 11.17 (up)
    Nuggets = 12.49 (up)

    Rockets = 11.30 (up)

    ---------

    So, again it's all pretty tight and not that informative. I guess you could say its interesting the Raptors and GSW both had their Ortg variability go down, and are the lowest variability, while the Bucks, Blazers, Nuggets, Rockets all went up. And the Rockets had the second highest playoff variability of this group, behind the Nuggets (also disappointingly out in the 2nd round).

    I probably should have taken averages, too. But you can already compare the total ORtg regular season vs. playoffs:
    Regular season: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2019_ratings.html
    Playoffs: https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2019.html

    Warriors had the least decline into the playoffs, and as noted were more consistent. Nuggets actually had their ORtg go up in the playoffs, but as noted their variability was also high and up in the playoffs.

    Too deep and nerdy a dive, probably, and sample sizes are small, etc. Hard to tell what the data supports.
     
  10. Tfor3

    Tfor3 Member

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    Financial issues tbh
     
  11. BMoney

    BMoney Contributing Member

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    You are being willfully obtuse. When the Rockets couldn't stop 10 straight pick and rolls between Curry and Draymond, that was the series. The difference in a close series was ultimately this stretch and their inability to secure defensive rebounds.
     
  12. TipsyDixit

    TipsyDixit Member

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    I would suggest that the variability is tied to the defense you are facing.

    Rockets variability in the playoffs *as a whole* is pulled down from the Jazz series. Warriors played three no-so-great defenses until they played the Raptors. Nuggets played two bad defenses.
     
  13. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Well variability is up from the Jazz series. They had great offensive games and horrible ones, from an efficiency perspective.

    But absolutely, sample size and makeup issues abound.

    Here is the Warriors playoffs game by game:
    https://www.basketball-reference.co...me_num_type=team&team_id=GSW&order_by=off_rtg

    Interestingly, of their 22 games, 3 of their 7 worst ORtg games were against the Rockets. The Warriors went 2-1 in those games.

    This speaks to those of us who think the offense needs as much work as the defense. Of course, without the Warriors being the Warriors now, who knows.
     
  14. Newlin

    Newlin Member

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    [​IMG]
    But, it was a really big bus!
     
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  15. BallSoHarden

    BallSoHarden Member

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    Harden burned down CP3s kitchen mid season and then acts like he had nothing to do with it, how did no one see this coming? He should have just taken responsibility like a real man and maybe we wouldn’t be here.
     
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  16. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=27024883

    Brian Windhorst, Jackie MacMullan & Tim MacMahon

    BW: Let's talk about the Rockets. This is a great chance in the Western Conference. Warriors are down. While the Lakers made a power move, I don't think they'll be at their best in year one. I think it'll take until year two. I saw it with the Heat, Cavs. They'll need two cycles to build the team. I don't think they'll have the depth. Warriors are down. Lakers will not be fully operational. It's a time to move. The Jazz made it. They went for it. My point is this is the Rockets chance. What are they doing?

    TM: That's why even people directly involved in the drama are saying "If we calm the **** down, we're probably the best team in the West." Things have gone sideways with D'Antoni, the front office & D'Antoni's agent.

    BW: What happened there?

    TM: Original offer was one year, $5M base, up to $4M incentives (playoffs advancement). If they fired him, $2.5M buyout. D'Antoni says it'd be fine if they got rid of the damn buyout. Fertitta does the press conference. Says all kinds of things. Realized that's a disaster. Fertitta realized I opened up my mouth & made bad worse. Flies up to West Virginia with Daryl Morey. They go out to dinner. Said I didn't realize the buyout was the problem, we'll take it out. We're sorry things got sideways, we'll pack $2M incentives this season just as an olive branch. We love you Mike, let's get this done. Mike says that sounds good, I'm cool, just give Warren a call. Off they go, flying home, alright we got a deal done! Days go by, I get wind of it, I put it out there. Warren is not thrilled. Here's the deal now: Warren is one of D'Antoni's best friend, responsible for getting him his first crack in the NBA, rep'd him for over 35 years, Mike is very loyal to him.

    BW: When he won COY last year & stood up on the stage, he basically said when I was down & out & nobody thought I'd work in the league again, Warren got me back.

    TM: Absolutely. Warren is saying it's not fair for a coach of your stature & not fair to set this precedent for other coaches around the league. Warren is holding firm at no, we want a 2 year extension & bump that base salary up. Fertitta is holding firm, no we shook hands with Mike, what the hell?

    BW: They got a mess there. Then the whole Chris Paul thing. Should I say something that will get aggregated? No, I won't say it. What do you say MacMahon?

    TM: I wrote what I wrote. There is definitely friction. There is tension. The prevailing opinion within the Rockets & from those who know both players very well & are still involved as Rockets employees or close to the players, etc etc..., hey, it's not that atypical, it's not ideal. Chris can be a tough guy to deal with on a regular basis. James probably needs to adjust some things as well but it's manageable. With some tweaks to the offense. D'Antoni has to tweak the offense to satisfy CP3 without alienating Harden. It's a delicate dance. As far as unsalvageable? I was told all those same things by people who do not have the Rockets best interest in mind and as I continued reporting, it did not check out so that's why I did not include that stuff in the story.

    JM: I think they want D'Antoni out.

    TM: They'll tell you they want D'Antoni there as long as Harden is the face of the franchise for a contender. That's where it gets delicate.

    BW: It's time to get together & sing kumbaya. Let's get our act together & get on the same page.

    TM: They'll be together for the awards show. They'll smile & pose and "Oh, I thought there was tension?" They'll do that whole dance.

    BW: There was something that happened in that Warriors series with the way they were defending the Rockets. They were doubling...where James was operating enabled Chris' man to kinda come double & Chris got frustrated & they knew he wanted to make an adjustment. There was a moment in that series where they snapped at each other but more like we're getting beat & it's unfortunate.

    TM: It was stuff lingering throughout the season. There was this unease throughout the season. When Harden really took off, that's when Chris Paul was hurt. He goes on this historic tear & Chris comes back & Harden wasn't adjusting off of that but Chris is no longer capable. Year one in Houston, Chris - outside of Harden - was one of best iso players in the league. He was #2 in the league. He lost a step & that offense no longer suits him. He wants plays, sets, screens, deception because he needs that where James is like, Give me the ball, space the floor & I'm the damn MVP of the league. Just shut up and watch.

    BW: I've gotten into a back & forth about their LT or non-LT spending. Last year, in a vital year, they made deals not to improve their team but to get under the tax and didn't spend their MLE in a year where it was an opportunity to go for it. I've questioned whether Fertitta was willing to spend the tax & got push back hard on that. Fertitta has pushed back on the record about spending.

    TM: We went back & forth on that. They wanted to avoid the repeater tax. The plan was year three. With the moves they made, they had an opportunity to do it. They felt Ennis fell out of the rotation. They didn't feel like it weakened the roster. My point was, OK, I hear all that but Chris Paul is getting older & more expensive as the contract goes.

    BW: That's my point.

    TM: Daryl pushed back "We did end up using most of the MLE." That was on like G-League call-ups to sign them to 3-year non-guaranteed deals. No.

    BW: That's shenanigans.

    TM: You didn't use it in the summer to get a quality rotation player when you had 2 key guys walk out the door. Now Luc was damaged goods but was a key role player the year before & didn't replace that. Trevor Ariza, a 35 MPG starter, you didn't replace that. If you're all in in year one of Chris Paul's max contract, you use the MLE to get a rotation player in the summer.
     
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  17. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    TM: You didn't use it in the summer to get a quality rotation player when you had 2 key guys walk out the door. Now Luc was damaged goods but was a key role player the year before & didn't replace that. Trevor Ariza, a 35 MPG starter, you didn't replace that. If you're all in in year one of Chris Paul's max contract, you use the MLE to get a rotation player in the summer.

    BW: That's my point. Also midway through the year, they made an offer for Jimmy Butler & maybe they always knew it was going to be rejected so maybe it wasn't a real offer but how can you go for Butler, a guy you have to re-sign? They have an opportunity again. Use it wisely. I'm hearing the rumblings, is there any chance for Jimmy?

    TM: They're real rumblings. Rockets think they have a chance.

    BW: It would take cooperation. Either they take all those first round picks they offered initially & trade them to a team with salary cap space (Knicks, Hawks, Bulls), they'd have to trade them to a team and use those picks to do one of those big...you remember how the Warriors wiped the books for Iguodala? They'd have to do that & then sign Jimmy or work a sign-&-trade with the Sixers, which would be very difficult.

    TM: I don't doubt Daryl to do the cap gymnastics. I doubt them getting Jimmy to agree to it. Philly will come with a 5-year max. That is happening.

    BW: Are you sure about that?

    TM: I'll put it at 99%.

    BW: I think they're coming with a max, not sure it's a 5-year max.

    TM: I'm pretty confident about that.

    JM: Hearing the 5-year too for Philly. He's their priority over Tobias. They want both but Jimmy is their closer. Jimmy has a wandering eye. You're never sure. A little bit like Kyrie. Where will he be happy?

    TM: Jimmy sees in Philly, they can claim they're as close as anyone. Also, Jimmy is self-aware enough to understand he's perhaps not the most calming influence. As the Rockets are trying to perhaps put some fires out, Harden & Butler are buddies, been talking blahblahblah but adding that alpha dog to a mix when you got two other alpha dogs barking at each other? Be careful what you wish for. Daryl hunts stars. He hunts faded stars. Carmelo blew up in his face. He thought it was a good idea. It wasn't. I'm confident the Rockets are trying to make it happen. I don't think it's a good idea. They don't have much depth anyways. If they become a thinner team with another personality like that, I don't know.

    BW: They need some unified leadership. This is where the owner would lead or the GM would lead or where Chris would lead.

    TM: PJ is that guy in that locker room.

    BW: Knowing the characters, it's really hard to get Tilman, James & Chris together. They're complicated characters.

    TM: Fertitta has buyer's remorse on Chris Paul. He's an inexperienced owner & talks a lot & when he talks, he doesn't make things better. I shouldn't say out loud because I like when he talks.

    BW: My sympathy for their Chris Paul contract: put a zero and then a decimal point and then infinite level of zeros until you go off the page.

    TM: Daryl doesn't have buyer's remorse. He said what the hell are you talking about? We got a chance to win a championship that we wouldn't have without Chris Paul. That makes him worth every freakin' penny.

    BW: When they made that deal with the Clippers, everyone's eyes were explosively wide open & then Tilman bought the team, made the purchase knowing what he would have to do with Chris Paul. Even if Chris couldn't walk right now, I'd have sympathy for Chris but no sympathy that they got themselves into the position they had to give him that contract.

    JM: One hamstring away. If Kawhi goes to the Clippers, think Toronto will say we never should have done this? No, they're holding the trophy. It's hard to win a championship. You overpay sometimes to make it happen. It's easy to play MMQB with the Rockets but if they won & they came close, the Chris Paul deal would have made sense.

    TM: It's not hindsight yet. As messy as this Rockets offseason started, they still may be the best team in the West.

    JM: Daryl said that to me yesterday. ... Why is Capela someone they'd move on from on a good contract?

    BW: They can't trade anyone else.

    TM: Eric Gordon maybe. Tucker they don't want to trade. I kinda feel like it's an overreaction to a bad series vs. the Warriors. He's their best asset because of the contract. You mentioned DeAndre to the Lakers. This is pure speculation. They can't trade Capela & not have a rim-running center, rebounder, defensive anchor. DeAndre Jordan, despite him butting heads with Chris with the Clippers, he's close with Chris, he's a Houston native. Do they think they can get him for the $5.7M. If they trade Capela, I gotta think they feel they got a shot at DeAndre, who should be fresh because he took a year off playing competitive basketball. He has not declined physically. Size, explosiveness, athleticism, he's still elite. Big, strong, athletic. He stopped rolling to the rim last year, stopped making any sort of effort defensively. Basically, he'd dunk when it was easy & pad his rebound stats. If he's locked in, he may be a short term upgrade over Capela. Capela is such a great fit with Harden & I'd be careful with that. Harden would not be thrilled giving up Capela & you bring in what's considered a CP3 guy....the chemistry equation is not Daryl's strength. I think it's something he needs to consider when making some of these moves.

    BW: Sam Hinkie, he cared about asset maneuvering more than chemistry. ... Rockets have a golden opportunity. I hope they get it together. That team was close. They may not be fun to watch but have gone through so much. I'll be fascinated to see if Jimmy Butler thing could ever be real. I feel it's one of those things Daryl tries to do but can't actually pull off.

    TM: And then signs him 5 years down the road on a minimum deal like Carmelo. He'll keep going after him.
     
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  18. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    now that was funny :D
     
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  19. Zergling

    Zergling Member

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    I guess everyone wanted to join Eric Gordon and not have fun in Houston
     
  20. ferrari77

    ferrari77 Contributing Member

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    EXCELLENT recap. Thanks a ton for posting this.

    This part here I felt needed to be reposted.

    That was by Tim McMahon. I thought that Goodwill article was crap. To my knowledge he doesn't cover the Rockets, he has hardly spent much time around them over the CP3-Harden era but his "sources" gave him "reliable" intel on whats happening. Yet Tim McMahon who covers the Rockets and has been around the team at practices and games over the past three seasons(and a bunch of other teams in the division) doesn't report that? Yeah no.

    I also like this part
    Tim doesn't back down from his reporting or info. Windhorst feels he is the $hit (it seems) but when Tim feels he has solid info he isn't just going to bow down.
     
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