Remember this, we are trying to add two primary stars.

Just did a little checking. If both Butler and Horford opt in we do have enough salary in Capela gordon deyonte harty Clark chiozza frazier and Nene to trade for both.

I know horford told the Celtics he was opting out. But that is about Horford controlling his destination. If he had opted in they could have traded him today or at some point in the future. I think there is the possibility that the Celtics and Horford agreed to extend the option date to June 29th so that they could continue to discuss extension SB's also trade scenarios with Horford.

The Celtics Sixers Nets triangle is a big key today to hope the draft unfolds. I can easily see a Hayward Butler Capela deal unfolding today to be executed on July 6 among the many possibilities. And it might involve Gordon and Horford either simultaneously or in a separate deal a little later.

 

We will not run it back. 100%.

 

It was Tuesday. And the story was put out that he opted out. But that day can be adjusted if both player and team agree. I think there's a good chance that both sides agreed to defer the decision and they just didn't announce it. It is in both sides best interest to defer the decision until after the draft. There's no reason why they wouldn't. ; )

 

Yeah...I'm not banking on anything.

I'm just convinced this has legs. And I'm convinced Morey is trying to get Butler..and SOMEBODY ELSE done. And I think Horford is a perfect fit as that other guy.

I'm also convinced that Kyrie and Tobias are going to the Nets as a pair.

And I'm convinced that Ainge is trying to create enough cap space to put an offer sheet on the table for DLo so the Nets are forced to match it and keep DLo for a year. Which would lead to Marks having to cooperate with Ainge on a Kyrie trade to avoid Ainge putting an offer sheet in front of DLo.

And I'm convinced Philly knows Tobias and Butler are leaving to Brooklyn together and Philly is ready to deal for replacements rather than face the possibility of going naked in free agency.

And I'm convinced the Nets want to sign two guys to max deals while holding on to DLo's birds rights and keeping him restricted so they can then use him as another asset.

So...all those things convince me that we are probably playing this situation as much to our advantage as possible. Especially IF Butler wants Houston.

 

So

I talked to an insider last night.

Don't ask. Im not going to tell. He knows Butler and Butler's agent.

He insisted to me that Jimmy was "opting out because he had to sign a max deal because he needs more money. This is about paying the bills. He's going to opt out and sign a max. There is no way he's going to opt in." (I'm leaving out a lot of stuff he said in the middle here. Just giving you the bookends of the conversation.)

I tried to reason with him but he cut me off. Wouldn't even allow me to lay numbers out. He talks to Jimmy's agent all the time. He's friends with Jimmy's agent. Jimmy is opting out because he needs money now!

So I'm putting this out here for several reasons. Let's see if it happens. This is a legit insider. If i named this person many of you know who he is and you would say, "Oh yeah, he's definitely an insider."

My perspective: I have no doubt Jimmy's agent said this. I don't doubt for a minute he's got to pay the bills, etc. I am 100% convinced Jimmy's agent told his personal friend this. And i can easily see that Butler is living a very lavish lifestyle when you consider his take home pay, etc.

But here's the facts:

Based on a $109 million cap number for 19-20 and a $118 million cap number for 20-21 and holding at $118 million cap for 21-22

1. If Jimmy opts out to sign a 5- year max deal in Philly he'll make $189.66 over 5 years.

2. If Jimmy opts out to sign a 4-year deal elsewhere he'll make $140.61 million over the next 4 years.

3. If Jimmy opts in and then signs a 4-year Birds rights deal next summer he'll make $179 million over the next 5 years.

4. If Jimmy opts in and signs a 5-year max next summer he'll make $225.765 million over 6 years.

5. If Jimmy signs a 1+1 deal this summer, then opts out to sign another 1+1 deal next summer (ala KD) and then signs a 3-year deal with Early Bird rights in 2 seconds when he's a 10-year vet he'll make $198.195 over 5 years.

6. If Jimmy opts in, then signs a 1+1 deal next summer with Birds rights then signs for 3 more years in 21-22 with full Birds rights he'll make $202 million over 5 years. (This puts him at age 35, 2 years younger than Cp3 will be when Paul's 4- year max ends.)

7. If Jimmy opts in, then signs a 1+1 deal next summer with Birds rights then signs for 4 more years in 21-22 with full Birds rights he'll make $253 million over 6 years. (This puts him at age 36, 1 year younger than Cp3 will be when Paul's 4-year max ends.

8. And finally if Jimmy opts in, then signs a 1+1 deal next summer with Birds rights then signs for 5 more years in 21-22 with full Birds rights he'll make $307 million over 7 years. (This puts him at age 37, the same age Cp3 will be when Paul's 4- year max ends.

These options are on the table for Butler. If he's willing to take incremental risk on an opt in he's not going to lose.

If he needs cash that bad..... he hcan float a loan for one year.

This thing is building up just the easy i anticipated it would.

It makes more sense for all parties involved.... the Rockets, Jimmy, and the Sixers to negotiate this deal before the moratorium. In my humble opinion this is going to play out over the next few days. And if Butler wants to come to Houston it will be an opt in and trade.

And this is based on insider information that I simply don't believe will happen. When it comes actual decision time the numbers matter.

With that I'm predicting Butler opts in and is traded here by Saturday or he opts out and he goes somewhere but here. Our free agency recruiting and pitch are taking place now. If we can't get Butler and the Sixers tti cooperate now then it's because he don't want to come here or he wants to come here and Philly is being unreasonable.

And if he wants to come here on an opt in and Philly won't cooperate i think Jimmy wil lime sign a 1+1 in Phoenix or somewhere else...(maybe LA...Clippers) with the agreement that they will trade him whe he wants to go after Jan. 15).

So basically if Elton Brand is worth a plug nickle they'll trade him for reasonable value if Butler decides he wants Houston.

That's why if Butler isn't a Rocket by Sunday he probably won't be one this summer. It'll be time to move on. All this talk about SnT of Butler here is media bullcrap put out by the team to get a deal done now.

Because.......

We are trying to get two guys.

 

So jumping forward

IF Butler does decide to opt in and be traded here......

The most likely scenario is we move out both Capela and EGo in- a multi team deal.

Capela's outgoing salary for trade purposes between now and Sunday is $15.293 million. Using the +$5 million rule that is likely enough to trade for Butler's salary straight up. I can't quite get a handle on Butlers incoming salary because he's got a trade kicker and a signing bonus that have already been paid. Worst case scenario is that his salary is $20.445 million.....would necessitate us having to add Nene or Clark or Harty to the deal (if we wanted to hold Ego for another incoming salary of up to 18.5).

Why am i talking about this? Because we ate trying to get 2 guys and we've got to be ready to get the next guy after this trade.

Boston has an urgency to get something done now in order to be able to pressure Brooklyn to deal and to block Brooklyn from lining up 3 guys.

Philly faces urgency of continuing to contend. They cannot afford for both Butler and Tobias to walk and have enough cap space tti fill but no mac guys to give it to.

Phoenix has max cap space open July 6 and has Tyler Johnson and Josh Jackson on potential expiring deals.

Atlanta needs a starting center. Boston wants Capela and wants to move Hayward. Philly needs to replace Butler.

Boston Philly Brooklyn Houston Phoenix Atlanta. Watch those teams.

 

rh isn't on my screen.

Worth the cost of our guys and picks????

Half the people here will say no if it gets done. The other half of us will be ecstatic. And we won't actually really know until they play it out.

But this is our time. It's time to go all in if we get two guys. And if we'r got those two guys and they stayed healthy and meshed were a 70 win team.