Who are the likeliest prospects to be traded by the Astros that would be considered a main part of the package? Last year, it seemed Bukauskas was the biggest trade chip. This year, it doesn't seem as cut and dry as some of the likely trade chips have had rough starts. My best guesses are: Beer Nova Toro Bukauskas Unless Astros take on a lot of salary, it may be difficult to get a non-rental ToR SP with these chips.
Corbin Martin seems like the most likely player to headline a deal for a starting pitcher. I also think Derek Fisher has more trade value than he’s given credit for. We can safely assume Tucker, Whitley, and Alvarez are untouchable. So here’s how I would break down the trade chips: Potential Headliners: Martin Beer Bukauskas James 2nd tier: Fisher Straw Stubbs Toro F Valdez C Perez Abreu Nova Interesting to the right team: Rojas Bielak Ivey Armenteros Urquidy Paredes L Santana R Dawson Torres Arauz E Valdez Pena Schroeder Carrasco Throw-ins: Reed White Kemp Rodgers Guduan Stassi Deetz I think a package of Martin, Beer, and Fisher should be able to get them a good starting pitcher with some control remaining. That’s certainly more than it will take to get Bumgarner.
While I think it will be difficult to keep Kemp based on other players being better, he deserves his own category as he doesn't fit with these guys.
He doesn’t have the ceiling of Reed (once one of baseballs 20 best prospects) or Guduan (lefty who throws 100). He’s been a worse player than White and Stassi in the majors: MLB PA, fWAR Kemp 604, 0.8 Stassi 398, 2.9 White 733, 1.3 If you want to drop Rodgers and Deetz down from “throw-ins” to “DFA”, fine. But as lovable as he is, Kemp belong in that group.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/is-there-a-trade-market-for-edwin-encarnacion.html MLBTR lists Astros as best fit for EE. Interesting that the $5M buyout on his option is already covered. If it weren’t for the clubhouse implications, a Reddick/Gurriel for EE trade seems to make a ton of sense to me. Astros get: 1B Edwin Encarnacion Mariners get: 1B Yuli Gurriel RF Josh Reddick RHP Rogelio Armenteros They are owed roughly the same money this season. Next season Reddick/Gurriel will he owed ~$22M combined and project to be worth about $15M. The buyout on EE’s option roughly covers the amount Reddick/Gurriel are underwater. Mariners get a 3rd tier pitching prospect for their trouble.
A lineup of: Springer CF Bregman 3B Altuve 2B Brantley LF Correa SS Alvarez DH Encarnacion 1B Tucker RF Chirinos C is probably the best lineup of all time.
Imagine that lineup, with Diaz/Marisnick/Vogt as the bench, with this pitching staff: Rotation: Verlander, Cole, Bumgarner, Peacock, Miley Bullpen: McHugh, James, Joe Smith, Rondon, Harris, Will Smith, Pressly, Osuna
I don't value data from 2016 evenly with 2018 and 2019 data. Current Fangraphs projection has Tony Kemp as 1.5 fWAR per 600 PAs. FV 50 position player prospects typically provide 3.1 fWAR average value and 0.8 fWAR median value for their club control years according to Fangraphs. Basically, Kemp is likely better than most FV50 prospects, though he doesn't have the upside of the very best FV50 prospects. Granted, I think it would be difficult to trade someone like Kemp for a FV50 player, but that is because most teams value upside over likely value. Though, some teams are like the Pirates that value cheap production as they don't have the money for free agents and would consider guys like Kemp (though I'm not sure Pirates have a current fit) a decent piece. I don't trust White and Stassi as much as their projections (Stassi for game calling and White as he needs to find his swing while being out of options makes him a tough sell for short term). If you trust Stassi and White's fWAR numbers as representations of their value, they should not be throw-ins either. On Guduan and Reed, their current 90% ceiling likely isn't at least 1.5 fWAR per season.
Big Red Machine ('76) Rose 3B (HOF) Griffey RF Morgan 2B (HOF) Bench C (HOF) Perez 1B (HOF) Foster LF Concepcion SS Geronimo CF
They'll like be in packages which muddies up who is the a significant piece and who is a throw-in. Simple question...Do you think Kemp is likelier to produce closer to 1.5 fWAR or 0.8 fWAR over his next 600 PAs?
That deal would make me hard for a week. Fix the one real problem we have in the offense with not enough production out of 1b, and give Tucker the chance to play.
