2019 Astros Minor League Thread

Is there any reason to think Kyle Tucker would be brought up and given the green light to run? Not arguing that he's incapable of stealing bases but the Astros' strategy pretty clearly de-emphasizes the stolen base.

As a team their SB numbers have dropped significantly in the last four years.
0.63 steals per game in 2016
0.6 SPG in 2017
0.4 SPG in 2018
0.38 SPG in the early part of 2019.

That's despite having several young, athletic players who showed strong SB numbers in the minors and/or majors.

 

I do agree with you that Houston has deemphasized the steal over the last few seasons.

This is gonna cause a stink, but I also think Springer, Altuve, Gurriel, and Correa have seen their speed decline over that time frame. Then they’ve added 2 aging players in Brantley and Reddick. Imho Springer Bregman, and Altuve should be stealing more (not as much as they used to, but they should have >10 Sb). Marisnick and Kemp are also threats to steal but probably won’t get the playing time to get double digit steals.

Either way, thats why when I drew the comp I put it at 10 Sb, because even if Tucker’s attempts drop, he should still be able to get to 10 pretty easily, given that he’s had 28 SB in 136 AAA games.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2019&position=&team=HOU&min=10

More than half the line-up is above average speed-wise.

 

Interesting, although that doesn’t tell us if any players have lost speed over the last few seasons. I am very surprised that Yuli and Correa are faster than Bregman.

 

The way Bregman runs, I’m surprised he has as much speed as he does. He looks mechanical and robotic when he runs.

 

Enmanuel Valdez will be Rule 5 eligible this offseason. I wonder if that played into why he was promoted to High A so quickly. If he does really well in High A he would surely be on rebuilding teams’ radars. Still, for now it’s very unlikely he would need protection.

 

The 2017 data is there.

Player 2017 2019
Springer 28.0 ft/s 28.2 ft/s
Correa 27.7 ft/s 27.8 ft/s
Altuve 28.3 ft/s 28.3 ft/s
Marisnick 29.1 ft/s 29.3 ft/s
Bregman 27.3 ft/s 27.0 ft/s
Gurriel 26.9 ft/s 27.9 ft/s
White 26.6 ft/s 24.4 ft/s
Reddick 27.8 ft/s 26.5 ft/s

The top of the line-up is virtually unchanged speed-wise.

 

Speaking of robots...

 

I was wrong then. Looks like the entirety of the decline is likely related to a shift in philosophy. Oh well.

 

When you're pounding homers and doubles at the rate this team is doing it at, probably doesn't make sense to steal bases and even risk getting thrown out. Plus we've been up big in a lot of games and it's considered "wrong" to steal bases while up that much.

 

This is pretty cool to look at, it's shocking Pence still has the speed he does. It is not shocking dough boy White is the slowest on our team.

 

Great points.

 

Stolen bases are great when you really need them, late innings, small ball, playoffs, etc....

Proper baserunning is a constant. I'd rather have that, and it doesn't matter how fast you are.

 

I'm not a big fan of caught stealing, and considering our guys don't have the knack, I'm fine being conservative in the SB department. For playoffs, Straw seems to have the knack.

Getting the extra base on BIP is the more important part of base running, IMO. I don't mind trading an out for a run. If a throw is going home with less than 2 outs, I expect guys on first or second to move up a base if it is going to be close at the plate. Odds are defense isn't going trading a run for an out as that isn't smart baseball.

 

Completely agree. They have a time and a place. I wasn't advocating for zero SB's. Think we would all love if they became Bagwell on the base paths, taking extra bases when possible and taking opportunity stolen bases while minimizing TOOTBLANs.

That being said, they're by far not a "green light" running team.

 

Luhnow talks about his visit to Round Rock, some good quotes:

https://www.statesman.com/sports/20...on-express-prospects-being-back-in-round-rock

 

I wonder if Alvarez will have suddenly improved his defense enough to warrant being called up shortly after the estimated super 2 deadline passes...

 

Ya know I’m starting to think AJ Reed might now have much of a future in the Astros organization.