Neither Springer nor Correa is a better offensive player than Harper. Is your decision to prefer Springer/Correa over Harper about keeping homegrown talent, or is it because of the defense?
More about keeping the home grown guys. I know they enjoy playing together, I know the chemistry works there. Plus, I’ve seen both come up huge in postseason, not every star can perform in those situations But....if I don’t think we could keep them both, I’d love to have both plus Harper for the next two years
Why would you have 3 max players in baseball? Max contracts in the NBA are like 30% of the cap - that's the equivalent of $70MM/yr in baseball. Assuming you're talking about a lower max, baseball teams could afford many more max players since their rosters are bigger. If you are talking about that kind of max, it wouldn't affect anyone anyway. If we say something like $25MM (only 14 players made more than that last year), NYY/BOS/LA/etc would be crazy not to try to sign every premiere free agent they could find for that. Go after Harper/Machado/etc and try to build a "superteam" just like basketball because you're collecting tons of excess value in each contract.
I’d take Springer at $20 million per year over Harper at double that. Springer year-over-year has a higher WAR (excluding Harper’s 1 10 WAR season), more hits on average (granted Springer has more plate appearances), the same number of HR on average, slightly less RBI, doubles and triples. If you take out Harper’s 2015, which is a clear offensive outlier, Springer eclipses him in just about every metric.... at likely half the cost.
Then if there are only 14 of those players now, why haven’t they done exactly that? They could do it now. Reality is it wouldn’t get teams like the Red Sox to add more top salaried players at all. The size of rosters and just the way teams are build just doesn’t resemble basketball at all. What’s happening in basketball was very predictable. The other thing a max could do is get the TWO players it would affect now, Harper and Machado, signed much earlier and teams would know what they could offer guys like Keuchel, Kimbrell, etc As I’ve said, seeing what they actually do will be fascinating, there are so many issues. We talk so much about free agents on here, but things like holding players down for an extra year of control, possible international draft, the whole draft slotting system (which I think is a huge problem), the DH...lot of issues the sides don’t agree on And with the amount of money both owners and players are raking in right now, a work stoppage which could devastate the sport for years, would be incredibly stupid on both sides
I absolutely love playoff Springer too But if I’m Luhnow and don’t think I can sign Springer...... I think Harper signs a deal front loaded for 3 years of 30-35 per year, opt out at that point with lesser salaries after that...guarantee his money before a possible work stoppage
Because Harper/Machado/etc can't be had for $25MM/yr. That's the point. If you want the best ones, you have to pay more, which prevents you from getting all of them. Baseball is a WAR-driven sport and it seems there's some general $/WAR pricetag. If you could pay a superstar less per WAR than you'd have to pay a regular player, why wouldn't you always just pick the superstar and skip the regular players? Of course, there aren't enough superstars out there, but what reason would have Harper have to go the White Sox or Padres if they couldn't offer more money than NYY/BOS/LA, where he could be in the playoffs every year? EDIT: Another way to look at is that $25MM/yr for Harper is a no-brainer. Every team would offer it, so instead of teams having to make strategic decisions for their team, it's just about where the player wants to go. Presuming that winning comes after money, they'd all pick the winningest places. Same thing you see in the NBA. Every team in the league will offer max money to Durant or Lebron if they have the space - there's no decision-making on the part of the team.
I’d be more inclined to agree if the top players were signing with lesser teams in baseball because that’s there the higher offers were Truth is they aren’t Even if Harper/Machado do sign with Philly/Chicago, that’s two teams with a huge ability to spend. If Kansas City and Tampa were in the middle of These negotiations, or even Minnesota and Cincinnati, I’d be more inclined to agree. Reality is with the system we currently have a small number of teams can sign the top guys. If there was a max, a team like KC or Minnesota or Houston might not get the best players available in free agency, but a guy like Springer or Correa certainly might stay instead of getting 300 million from a major market, as opposed to 225 million from the Astros
Im totally not buying that Correa signs here long term. Anyone that follows him and his girlfriend on social media know that they are obsessed with New york. His fiance follows a bunch of fashion designers and modeling agency's in New york and when they play games there they seem to have the best time. I think Machado could even sign a 1 year deal as it stands now. From what im reading hes being offered 7/175 and thats not going to change next year barring a substantial injury.
While Harper may have the edge offensively, a healthy Correa is more valuable than Harper...by quite a bit. For some reason people put a ton of faith in Harpers one monster season.
IF healthy is a pretty big assumption at this point. Being his age and already having back issues is never a good sign. Harper is still only 26 and it seems like hes been in a shitty situation in DC for awhile. A fresh home at his age could do wonders.
Oh I’m not totally buying any of the others are necessarily staying long term. I hope they do and think it’s possible, but nowhere close to a guarantee. Luhnow don’t know for sure either, but he has a lot better idea than any of us do The whole NY thing isn’t as likely as some see it though. They have Didi and Torres and Andujar, all young and controllable past Correa. I don’t see them breaking the bank for a guy who isn’t in a position of need, fortunately George ain’t running that shoe anymore so just outspending everyone on a guy they don’t really need isn’t the norm now I guess he could sign a big contract with the Mets till he is old and not productive, then come back here for a title to finish his career...if he really wants to be in NY
Carlos Correa has a lot to prove IMO. He has only played more than 110 games once and has only had an OPS over .840 once. We all know how good he is capable of being but he still needs to go out and do it and prove he can stay healthy.
If I were Boras/Harper/Machado, I’d get them to take 2-3 year deals to get them through this CBA. Then they can be ready to play hardball and hopefully improve the landscape for free agents; they’ll still only be 28-29.
No doubt, there's no way in hell I would give him a huge deal right now, but I honestly wouldn't feel too much better about giving one to Harper. He literally has one season where he put up an elite WAR. It's always something with him, poor fielding, or a poor average, or an injury. For as much as he's demanding, there's a lot of excuses. I've never even given it a thought. I've always just assumed it was a lock that he was gone once his team control is up if he's even close to his potential. The fact that his service time lines up perfectly with the looming strike does throw a bit of a monkey wrench into things.
Not counting the year he was called up, he's played 153 games at a very high level, 109 games at an very high level and won a World Series, and played 110 games with half the games being at a high level and half being absolutely horrible because of his back. The only thing Correa needs to prove is his back is fine. Even with the back injury, he's in the Top 30 in WAR since he was called up and basically equal with Harper since he was called up (Harper did accumulate about 5 WAR in 2015 before Correa was called up). He plays like he did before the back injury, he's a top 15 player in the league and young.
I personally would not give a large contract to a player that had played a single full season and has back issues. We all know he can be elite, as he has been at times, I personally just have not seen enough as there are too many question marks to pay him like a top 15 player in the league.
