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The Myth that James Harden isn't efficient

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by coyotetex, Dec 31, 2018.

  1. coyotetex

    coyotetex Member

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    Was just watching a video of a recent segment on Undisputed where Broussard was asked if Harden was a better offensive player than MJ. Broussard, Skip Bayless and Shannon Sharpe trotted out all the stupid reasons why people discount Harden's offensive numbers and I decided to go look at the actual stats.

    I used the data from the list of all time leaders in Points Per Game for a single season and extended it to the top 26 players so that Durant's 2014 season would be included as it helps make a few very interesting points - https://www.landofbasketball.com/all_time_leaders/points_per_game_single_season.htm

    Here is what I found:

    1. Harden's scoring is due to him getting so many free throws

    If you take Points per Game and remove made Free Throws and divide by Field Goal Attempts, you get Points per Field Goal Attempt minus Free Throws (PPFGA - FT). This is a good measurement of scoring efficiency that doesn't take into consideration Free Throws.

    Dividing by FGAs normalizes the data so you can see who was the best scorer per attempt. This is important given that many of the top scorers (especially Wilt) put up gaudy numbers by shooting 27+ field goal attempts per game.

    Year Player - Points per Field Goal Attempt without Free Throws
    1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1.15
    2014 Kevin Durant - 1.12
    1990 Michael Jordan - 1.10
    2019 James Harden - 1.09
    1989 Michael Jordan - 1.09
    1966 Wilt Chamberlain - 1.08
    1988 Michael Jordan - 1.07
    1980 George Gervin - 1.07
    1985 Bernard King - 1.06
    1963 Wilt Chamberlain - 1.06
    1964 Wilt Chamberlain - 1.05
    1993 Michael Jordan - 1.03
    1975 Bob McAdoo - 1.02
    1965 Wilt Chamberlain - 1.02
    1961 Wilt Chamberlain - 1.02
    1962 Wilt Chamberlain - 1.01
    2003 Tracy McGrady - 1.01
    1982 George Gervin - 1.00
    2006 Kobe Bryant - 0.98
    1973 Tiny Archibald - 0.98
    1987 Michael Jordan - 0.97
    2006 Allen Iverson - 0.93
    1960 Wilt Chamberlain - 0.92
    1963 Elgin Baylor - 0.91
    1967 Rick Barry - 0.90
    1961 Elgin Baylor - 0.86

    FALSE - even removing Free Throws from the equation, Harden's 2019 season is the 4th best in terms of points per field goal attempt all time. I'm not sure why discounting free throws is even necessary (points are points) but the narrative that Harden is only notable as a scorer because he gets fouled so much is not true.

    2. Harden isn't an efficient scorer because his Field Goal % is much lower than other great shooters like Jordan and Kobe.

    This one is easy - here is a list of the top 26 PPG seasons by 2pt%:

    1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 57.4%
    1989 Michael Jordan 55.4%
    2014 Kevin Durant 54.9%
    1990 Michael Jordan 54.8%
    1988 Michael Jordan 54.6%
    1980 George Gervin 54.0%
    1966 Wilt Chamberlain 53.9%
    1985 Bernard King 53.3%
    1963 Wilt Chamberlain 52.8%
    1964 Wilt Chamberlain 52.4%
    1993 Michael Jordan 51.4%
    2019 James Harden 51.3%
    1975 Bob McAdoo 51.2%
    1965 Wilt Chamberlain 51.0%
    1961 Wilt Chamberlain 50.9%
    1962 Wilt Chamberlain 50.5%
    1982 George Gervin 50.4%
    1987 Michael Jordan 49.1%
    1973 Tiny Archibald 48.8%
    2006 Kobe Bryant 48.3%
    2003 Tracy McGrady 48.0%
    2006 Allen Iverson 46.5%
    1960 Wilt Chamberlain 46.1%
    1963 Elgin Baylor 45.3%
    1967 Rick Barry 45.1%
    1961 Elgin Baylor 43.0%

    FALSE - Harden ranks 12th on the list ahead of every other backcourt player except for Jordan. Harden destroys Kobe, McGrady, Iverson and Rick Barry.

    Harden's overall FG% is always lower than other top scorers because he takes (and makes) about 2X as many 3 pointers as anyone else on the list. That makes it seem like he's a less accurate shooter than someone like Kobe when the reality is, Harden shoots 2s at a rate similar to Wilt Chamberlain(!!!)

    This seems like a dumb mistake for a professional sports analyst to make, but it happens all the time.

    3. Harden gets to the line at an unprecedented rate

    Free throw attempts per Field goal attempt:

    1966 Wilt Chamberlain 0.49
    2019 James Harden 0.48
    2014 Kevin Durant 0.48
    2006 Allen Iverson 0.45
    1964 Wilt Chamberlain 0.44
    1989 Michael Jordan 0.44
    1962 Wilt Chamberlain 0.43
    1988 Michael Jordan 0.43
    1961 Wilt Chamberlain 0.43
    1960 Wilt Chamberlain 0.43
    1987 Michael Jordan 0.43
    1985 Bernard King 0.42
    1965 Wilt Chamberlain 0.42
    1963 Wilt Chamberlain 0.40
    2003 Tracy McGrady 0.40
    1961 Elgin Baylor 0.40
    1967 Rick Barry 0.38
    2006 Kobe Bryant 0.38
    1975 Bob McAdoo 0.37
    1973 Tiny Archibald 0.37
    1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 0.36
    1990 Michael Jordan 0.36
    1963 Elgin Baylor 0.35
    1982 George Gervin 0.32
    1980 George Gervin 0.31
    1993 Michael Jordan 0.28

    FALSE - For something to be unprecedented, it has to have never happened before and you can see that's not the case. Yes Harden is #2, but only a fraction ahead of Kevin Durant's 2014 season. If you want to understand the bias against Harden you can stop here. Durant handles the ball FAR less than Harden and yet in 2014 he went to the line with the same frequency per shot as Harden. Clearly the refs called more fouls per touch in favor of Durant than Harden, and yet no one in the media ever questioned whether or not Durant is getting to many friendly calls.

    4. Harden isn't a great shooter, he just takes a lot more shots than anyone else

    3 point percentage:

    2014 Kevin Durant 39.1%
    2003 Tracy McGrady 38.7%
    2019 James Harden 38.3%
    1990 Michael Jordan 37.5%
    1993 Michael Jordan 35.3%
    2006 Kobe Bryant 34.7%
    2006 Allen Iverson 32.3%
    1980 George Gervin 31.3%
    1982 George Gervin 28.3%
    1989 Michael Jordan 27.3%
    1987 Michael Jordan 18.8%
    1988 Michael Jordan 13.8%
    1985 Bernard King 11.1%
    1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 0.0%
    1966 Wilt Chamberlain 0.0%
    1963 Wilt Chamberlain 0.0%
    1964 Wilt Chamberlain 0.0%
    1975 Bob McAdoo 0.0%
    1965 Wilt Chamberlain 0.0%
    1961 Wilt Chamberlain 0.0%
    1962 Wilt Chamberlain 0.0%
    1973 Tiny Archibald 0.0%
    1960 Wilt Chamberlain 0.0%
    1963 Elgin Baylor 0.0%
    1967 Rick Barry 0.0%
    1961 Elgin Baylor 0.0%

    and 3PM / 3PA:

    2019 James Harden 4.6 11.9
    2014 Kevin Durant 2.4 6.1
    2003 Tracy McGrady 2.3 6.0
    2006 Kobe Bryant 2.3 6.5
    1990 Michael Jordan 1.1 3.0
    1993 Michael Jordan 1.0 3.0
    2006 Allen Iverson 1.0 3.1
    1980 George Gervin 0.4 1.3
    1989 Michael Jordan 0.3 1.2
    1987 Michael Jordan 0.2 0.8
    1988 Michael Jordan 0.1 0.7
    1982 George Gervin 0.1 0.5
    1985 Bernard King 0.0 0.2

    TRUE - Harden isn't a great shooter, he's an EPIC shooter.

    You want a truly unprecedented accomplishment, here it is; no one has ever scored as many points per game and made as many 3 pointers as Harden. He's making double the number of threes that Durant, Kobe and McGrady made, making roughly the same percentage of shots per attempt and he's doing it while being the primary ball handler and having to create his own shot.

    5. Harden isn't as good an offensive player as Jordan

    Here are the top 26 PPG seasons ranked by Points Created:

    1973 Tiny Archibald 56.8
    1962 Wilt Chamberlain 55.2
    1963 Wilt Chamberlain 51.6
    2019 James Harden 51.5
    1989 Michael Jordan 50.6
    2006 Allen Iverson 49.8
    1988 Michael Jordan 48.3
    1964 Wilt Chamberlain 48.2
    1990 Michael Jordan 47.8
    1987 Michael Jordan 47.5
    1961 Elgin Baylor 46.3
    2006 Kobe Bryant 45.6
    1966 Wilt Chamberlain 45.3
    1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 45.3
    1993 Michael Jordan 45.0
    1963 Elgin Baylor 44.9
    2003 Tracy McGrady 44.5
    2014 Kevin Durant 44.5
    1967 Rick Barry 43.7
    1960 Wilt Chamberlain 42.8
    1961 Wilt Chamberlain 42.7
    1965 Wilt Chamberlain 42.4
    1985 Bernard King 41.3
    1975 Bob McAdoo 39.5
    1980 George Gervin 39.0
    1982 George Gervin 37.7

    TRUE - but it's not a done deal because Harden's career isn't over yet...

    If you are looking for the all-time great offensive season, it hard to argue with Tiny Archibald 1973. For best offensive player all time, its a fight between Chamberlain and Jordan.

    But Harden's 2019 season (so far) is better than any season that Jordan ever put up and I wouldn't be shocked if Harden is able to maintain this level of offensive play for the next 3 - 4 years. If that happens, then the Harden vs. Jordan conversation becomes much more interesting.

    One thing this data proves to me beyond a shadow of a doubt - Harden is clearly superior to Kobe by a wide margin. Kobe only makes this list once and 2006 Kobe is clearly statistically inferior to 2019 Harden.

    The other interesting thing is how hard it is to make this list 2X or more. Only Chamberlain (6), Jordan (5), Gervin (2) and Baylor (2) have done that. If Harden does it this year and one more time in the future with similar stats, I'd say that puts him in the conversation for #3 Best Offensive player of all time.

    In any case - the media isn't giving Harden his due. Harden 2019 is shaping up as one of the best all around offensive seasons of all time and none of their "arguments" against that fact are legit.
     
  2. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    James Harden is representative of the era we live in. Facts, statistics, and essays can't overcome a saturated idea.
     
  3. oogie boogie

    oogie boogie Member

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    I could have gone without points 4 and 5. otherwise this was a tremendous post. Points 1 through 3 are godly.
     
  4. clos4life

    clos4life Member

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    First of all, great post OP! It's unfortunate that no matter what Harden does he will be the pariah of the average NBA fan and clickbait websites but at least Clutchfans will know his true greatness.
     
  5. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    What idiot thinks Harden isn’t efficient?

    Oh....Broussard, Skip Bayless and Shannon Sharpe....

    Now it makes sense
     
  6. Classic

    Classic Member

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    Great post & data compiled.

    I would have expected Harden's last two campaigns, or at least the 16-17 year, be listed in #5 right behind Tiny Nate's...
     
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  7. Classic

    Classic Member

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    Great post & data compiled.

    I would have expected Harden's last two campaigns, or at least the 16-17 year, be listed in #5 right behind Tiny Nate's...
     
    Lawlruschang and don grahamleone like this.
  8. coyotetex

    coyotetex Member

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    They may be - I only used date from the top 26 seasons in Points per Game. If I started with all seasons I am sure Harden would have 3 of the top 25 seasons for points created. But I thought it was more definitive to limit the data to the top scoring seasons.
     
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  9. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    I'm pretty sure Harden's 2018 season should be at the top of this list, either that or 2nd at the lowest. I know he set the record for most points created in a season, but I'm not sure about the per game number.
     
  10. jcf

    jcf Member

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    I'm shocked that Lebron is nowhere on these lists. Interesting.
     
  11. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Where are these stats from. Harden was 1 POINT away from breaking Archibald's 56.8 points-created in 2016-17. At 56.02 per game.

     
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  12. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    well that's silly. Who cares about Wilt Chamberlain in this discussion...half of those will be Wilt's.
     
    Sweet Lou 4 2 likes this.
  13. coyotetex

    coyotetex Member

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    All of these stats are comparing only the Top 26 player seasons in Points per Game.
     
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  14. BamBam

    BamBam Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]

    .......
    .......
    .......
     
  15. SuperMarioBro

    SuperMarioBro Member

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    Yeah, Harden is an impressive scorer even when free throws are removed from the game... But the thing is that it's also silly to discount Harden's ability to get to the line. Yes, sometimes he draws a cheap foul here or there (every superstar does, maybe Harden does it slightly more than most, but not much), and I get that it's frustrating as a fan of not-the-Rockets to see someone get to the line as often as Harden, but the fact is that he really does draw a lot of foul-worthy contact, and he deserves the vast majority of those free throws. They are an important and necessary part of the game, and Harden takes advantage full advantage of them by both getting to the line and making his FTs at an incredible rate when he does.

    He's an incredible player with or without that part of the game, but it's not fair to brush off FT points as cheap or irrelevant.
     
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  16. omgTHEpotential

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    That's why I find the FG% stat so dumb. It just confuses casual fans and helps spread false narratives. Why combine both 2PT and 3PT field goals when you have a separate category for 3PT field goals. Just go the Euroleague route and make the boxscores include 2PT shots instead of FGs.

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Air Canada

    Air Canada Member

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    Why isn't Harden on here twice? He led the league in PPG last year... 2018 season should be here too
     
  18. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Then why say this, too.
    |
    v

    Wilt doesn't even need any assists to make the points-created list. The points-created list should have no requirement to also be a Top 26 ppg list. That's just a weird cut-off for points-created. Harden is 2nd all-time

    bottomline: I really do appreciate the data here. But, I find that the discussion in the media never includes centers, so am scratching my head why'd you'd bump out a lot of valuable comparison years merely to include Wilt and Kareem's top scoring years.​
     
  19. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    Harden does all this while being assisted on only 13.2% of his made field goals

    05-06 Kobe was assisted on 37.7% of his 2 point field goals and 70.6% of his threes...overall, 43.8% of his field goals were assisted which is much higher than I would’ve thought

    13-14 KD was assisted on 47.7% of his 2 point field goals and 55.7% of his threes...overall, 47.2% of his field goals were assisted
     
  20. Blurr#7

    Blurr#7 Contributing Member

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    Magnificent post, simply magnificent
     

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