I don’t get the infatuation with Grandal. Good offensive catcher but not great. Don’t know anything about his defensive stats, but investing heavily in a 30 year old catcher, especially Grandal, makes me a bit hesitant. I guess it all depends on price. What’s he projected to get, 3/34?
I wonder if we will trade Kemp in the offseason, or just keep him through camp as injury insurance and get whatever we can if we don't need him. I don't imagine he will fetch too much. As is, there's just no spot for him, and he's out of options.
I suspect he will get more than that. $64M/4yr would be my guess. He’s one of the top 3 catchers in the league over the last few seasons. He’s a career 117 wRC+ hitter. Hes a switch hitter. He’s a more than capable defender.
After adding Brantley, the Astros project for 29.1 position player fWAR. That’s 4.3 less than 2017 actual and 4.3 more than 2018 actual. Their total fWAR projection is still 4th, but at 49.3 is now closer to the top 3 (Yankees 49.9, Dodgers 50.0, Red Sox 50.8).
I find WAR projections in baseball somewhat laughable. I feel like the biggest factor that can impact a team and individual players is injuries. You can't project them or their severity, and they massively skew data. You can't project that Carlos Correa is going to hit .239 because of a back injury, or that Altuve is going to be hobbled half the year.
Grandal's asking price is likely too high, MLBTR (And Snake Diggit) predict 4/$64M. The infatuation is because he's an above average hitter who consistently grades out as a top 5 pitch framer in MLB. Last year he was #1.
Wow...Luhnow going for it all. We trade Tucker and Brantley suddenly goes from a great signing to a band-aid signing imo. I was wrong last in not wanting to trade for Yelich. But, I still believe that under our financial structure it wouldnt be wise to trade 6 years of Tucker Tucker (super star or average) for 2 years of a Realumuto.
Injury risk is spread throughout the team. Astros were projected for 55.4 WAR in 2018 by Fangraphs. They finished with 54.8. Neifi projected Astros to win 103 games. Astros finished with 103 wins. For the 2018 Astros, the projections were nearly off as much based on injuries, bad years as they were for players having good years. There are a lot of teams that drastically outperform or underperform their projections. The 2018 Astros are not one of those teams.
....It feels like we've heard this before. If we were willing to do Tucker for Realmuto, it would have happened by now. Luhnow sticks to his guns.
That guy is the Marlins beat writer. I could be wrong, but I read that tweet as "Marlins still targeting Tucker" more than "Astros willing to part with Tucker."
If the Astros cash in Tucker for Realmuto, is that an indication of the expectation of Whitley? Maybe James? Not sure what starting pitchers are out there for an Astros tier 2-3 package.
True, and I mostly agree, but could signing Brantly be a sign of giving in? I also agree with what Sealclubber said...if we were offering that or ever willing to, the deal would have happened already. Just wondering if things have changed with the Brantly signing. I think James as a headliner could work...but I also dont think we are willing to part with him, either.
So your telling me that WAR projections work great for the Astros because they were so wrong to the positve and negative side it evened out.... Sounds like statisticians found a way to keep their job and be wrong at the same time.
Do. Not. Trade. Tucker. Why in the world would the Astros trade away a potential superstar for even an all-star catcher? No! Like someone said above don’t trade 6 potential superstar seasons for 2 all star seasons. Tucker mashed in AAA last season and struggled in just 64 MLB ABs. The dude was only 20 years old last season. I fully believe Tucker is going to be a super star level player.
I think he takes Marwin's utility spot, although he is not as good as Marwin. I do see Reddick likely being traded with the signing of Brantley, especially if they plan to have Tucker in the 25 man roster (which I expect they do). Tucker, Brantley and Springer will be the starters with Marisnick and/or Kemp being the backups.
