That is the same as not caring if you add a lefty. All things being equal, you pick a lefty over a righty based on Astros roster. All things are never equal in complex systems.
Astros actual fWAR, 2017: 33.3 hitting, 20.2 pitching, 53.5 total Astros actual fWAR, 2018: 24.8 hitting, 30.6 pitching, 55.4 total Astros current projected fWAR, 2019: 27.9 hitting, 20.1 pitching, 48.0 total So their expected position player output is superior to the 2018 team, and the expected pitching output is equal to the 2017 team. But in total, this roster is a handful of wins worse than either team.
I assume there are two primary spots driving most of the pitching decline, but Morton was going to be an expected regression regardless while Keuchel is a serious loss (I assume McCullers can't be too huge of a drop given his inning limitations). So if we replace Keuchel with a very good #2/#3 and then find a surprise a la Morton's 2018 we should be closer to last year's pitching while still getting the hitting boost from hopefully better health, a full year of Bregman being Bregman, and at least a slight upgrade at C (even Chirinos), LF (Tucker assuming better BABIP) and DH (White all year). Any of James, Valdez, Whitley, or McHugh have the potential to generate upside similar to Morton while the others replace McCullers ... or Morton himself could be back and at the least replace McCullers' output. If all of that is right, then even without another hitting upgrade we should be in terrific shape with one more solid SP and at least one of our pitching 'bets' hitting. That said, I still want a hitting upgrade!
Spoiler http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...ing-extension-changes-cleveland-indians-plans Olney: Carrasco's surprising extension changes Indians' plans December 09, 2018 Not long after the World Series, the Cleveland Indians made it known to the rest of the industry that they would take offers for their best available starting pitchers -- two-time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, right-hander Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, who was coming off a breakout performance in 2018. It was not part of the Indians' strategy at the time to work out an unusual contract extension through their trade conversations, but that's exactly what happened. Carrasco has really enjoyed his time with the Indians, and likes the life that he has built for himself in Cleveland. So after the first reports of the Indians' willingness to trade a starting pitcher, Carrasco and his agents, Sam and Seth Levinson, approached the team about extending his existing contract. Carrasco is 31 years old and, like Kluber, has been working under a contract that has a succession of one-year team options. Carrasco and Kluber got a chunk of money guaranteed at the front end of their deals; in return, there is less risk for the team through the options. Carrasco was guaranteed to make $9.75 million in 2019, and the Indians held a club option for $9.5 million in 2020. After Carrasco's surprising idea about a possible extension, the Indians worked out new terms -- Carrasco will be guaranteed $10.25 million in 2020, $12 million in 2021 and $12 million in 2022. The Indians hold a $14 million option on the 2023 season, with a $3 million buyout. In addition, Carrasco's deal possesses a $3 million assignment bonus if the Indians trade him -- something Cleveland has no interest in doing, and Carrasco has demonstrated that he has no interest in leaving, having fostered an excellent relationship with the folks at the Cleveland Clinic, the team's medical and support staff. Chris Antonetti, the head of baseball operations for the Indians, talked on Friday about how thoughtful Carrasco is, and how he understands and appreciates what he has. Other teams expect that the Indians will trade Kluber or Bauer, and because the Indians possess more cost certainty with Kluber, some executives with other teams believe that Bauer is more likely to be dealt. No matter what happens, the Indians can now start to envision a rotation that will be fronted by Carrasco, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber in 2021 and in the years that follow, meaning that even after Kluber, Bauer and perhaps shortstop Francisco Lindor move on, Cleveland will continue to have a core necessary to contend in the AL Central. •The Levinsons also represent Nathan Eovaldi, the right-hander who just signed a four-year, $68 million contract to return to the Boston Red Sox. Eovaldi is incredibly polite, dutiful and understated, which is part of the reason teammates responded so strongly to him as Eovaldi took the ball for a seventh inning of relief in Game 3 of the World Series. Rick Porcello acknowledged afterward that he was moved to tears by Eovaldi's effort, and David Price stayed by his side in the hours after that performance. The first decade of Eovaldi's time in professional baseball has been somewhat luckless, filled with injury, including a second elbow reconstruction -- elbow revision surgery. Through his time on the disabled list, his rehabilitation stints and trades, Eovaldi has maintained that same personality. So it was with some relish that the Levinsons made the call to Eovaldi to detail the biggest contract that he will get in his lifetime. Sixty-eight million dollars. The pitcher was on the roof of his house, putting up Christmas lights. On the call, somebody joked that Eovaldi might think about climbing down the ladder and let somebody else decorate the house. Eovaldi was quiet, taking it all in, and happy. •On paper, Eovaldi seemed like the perfect fit for the Houston Astros, who have a history of taking pitchers with really good arms and making them better. But the Astros never really engaged on the right-hander, leading to one industry theory that Houston is more locked into the trade market than folks realize and looking to pluck one of the best available starters in a swap -- and right now, the best appear to include Kluber, Bauer, Zack Greinke and Noah Syndergaard. •While the New York Mets have pulled back in their public comments about possibly dealing Syndergaard, other teams say they think the Mets absolutely would trade the right-hander for the right offer. •Just as the Diamondbacks have this winter, the Pittsburgh Pirates executed tough financial decisions last winter when they traded Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen. Following a year in which their attendance dropped significantly, the Pirates are not operating with much payroll flexibility for 2019. The Dodgers, Astros and Mets are all in the market for catching help, and if one of those teams makes an offer on catcher Francisco Cervelli, the Pirates will listen. Cervelli, who turns 33 in March, will make $11.5 million next season before becoming eligible for free agency. •The St. Louis Cardinals have a long history of trading for veterans and then coaxing them to stay with contract extensions, from Mark McGwire to Matt Holliday, and it's possible that they could do that with Paul Goldschmidt, just acquired from the Diamondbacks. Goldschmidt, 31, will be eligible for free agency after next season. But the financial trends are also very different now than even five or eight years ago, when teams routinely made multiyear, big-money investments in players in their early and mid-30s. (See: Carlos Carrasco.) That does not happen nearly as frequently as it once did, and talks between Goldschmidt and the Cardinals -- a star player in his 30s, and a team flush with money -- will be seen as an interesting test of that recent trend.
Notes from Buster Olney -The Dodgers, along with the Mets and Astros are 'All in' on finding a catcher. Suggested all 3 could find the answer by trading for Pirates Francisco Cervelli. -Astros didn't seriously go after Eovaldi. Probably looking to go through the trade route to add a starter. Noah, Kluber, Baeur, Greinke mentioned. Heyman note -Astros are 1 of the 5 teams looking at Josh Harrison. On a side note, I saw a top 5 prediction for the Winter meetings and one was Yankees getting Edwin Encarnacion and Kluber. Would you guys go after a Encarnacion/Kluber (or Baeur) package? Or does Encarnacion cost too much to be the DH($20mil/year). Also I think he has two years left. With his age, can he fall off a cliff anytime soon?
Hasn’t Stroman been linked to HOU in the past? Wonder if Luhnow is checking tabs on either of these guys
The Astros never really in high level negotiations with Eavoldi and mostly looking to improve their team through trades? NO WAY... I AM SHOCKED! -sarcasm-
I saw that earlier and couldn’t believe they didn’t take that offer over the St. Louis one. IMO I think we get punished at times in negotiations for having such a deep, good prospect pool on top of having a great MLB team. Other GMs are fixated on getting Whitley or Tucker and when they don’t get their way they go elsewhere.
I have thought this before. Can't quite put into words how exactly, but seems like teams could sort of come to the table with the thought of..."you can afford to give up one of the top guys, so that's all we want to consider." I also have the thought that maybe teams are just flat out not high on JBB. This is now the second time that a deal centered around him has been turned down. Could be problematic for us in trade discussions if we cant get a team to bite on him as a centerpiece.
I bet other GMs do not want to get fleeced by Luhnow, fearing Luhnow has a much better valuations of players than they do.
