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When will the window be closed?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Snake Diggit, Nov 25, 2018.

  1. Nippystix

    Nippystix Member

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    We can lock the thread, the window apparently closed yesterday.
     
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  2. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Exactly.

    This is trending to be even worse than the knee-jerks that were all over the place this past season (conceding the division to Oakland in July...etc.).

    By the end of the year, when the team was winning the most games in franchise history, none of those guys could even end up enjoying the run... as they went from too busy being pessimistic about the division, to then being pessimistic about beating the Indians.

    It should be fun to be the odds-on favorite to win the WS year after year.... certainly more fun than 2011-2014 was.... but maybe the pressure is just too much for some to cope with.
     
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  3. Roc Paint

    Roc Paint Contributing Member

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    Soon after the second parade in downtown
     
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  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    With the signing of Brantley, Houston has 14 free agents between now and 2020. If they trade Tucker for Realmuto, add a short term DH (Cruz or Murphy), and especially if they add a SP with <3 years left, I think the writing will be on the wall that the FO thinks the current window will only be 2 more years.

    Wouldn’t be at all surprised if in fall of 2020 we see them shopping Correa, Bregman, McCullers, and Osuna to kickstart another rebuild.

    Next core:
    Whitley
    Altuve
    Martin
    James
    C Perez
    Alvarez
    Beer
    Nova
    prospects added via draft (will have comp picks for Keuchel, Springer, Verlander, Cole, Realmuto, possibly McHugh and Brantley)
    prospects added via trade (in exchange for Bregman, Correa, Osuna, McCullers, others)

    Should be back in the playoffs by 2023.
     
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  5. AznH-TownFan

    AznH-TownFan Member

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    I’m all in for this plan if it give us 2 legit years of winning a WS or two. We’re not the Dodgers, Boston, or Yankees so it might be a long time before we can content for a WS ring again. Plus, the next core of players will have plenty of major league experience that we won’t be like the Marlins this year.
     
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  6. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    This is a 100 win team next year without Dusty

    This team looks like a 90-95 win WC contending team in 25 unless some big changes are made.

    26 currently looks like a rebuild
     
  7. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    This thread is super interesting to read back through...it's amazing what they were able to sustain, honestly. Is December of 2018 when we lost Springer?
     
  8. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    This thread has more comprehensive breakdowns of Houston's rolling projections: https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/updated-5-year-outlook.300722/page-27

    Houston is extremely likely to contend next season and likely to contend in 2025. After that it gets really risky. Yordan is the only surefire star bat under control after that, and he is injury prone. There are no surefire star pitchers under control after Framber and JV are free agents in 2025. There are quite few players with a very wide range of outcomes post-2025: Diaz, Pena, Meyers, Brown, Javier, Garcia, McCullers, France, Abreu, and a number of prospects could turn into established stars...or they could be middling players or total busts.

    Crane could singlehandedly turn things around by being willing to go Cohen for a year and exceed the threshold to sign 3-4 good players this offseason that would both upgrade the long term projections and allow them to trade some MLB players to rebuild the farm. I find that exceedingly unlikely, which means that the path to sustained contention relies on the front office's ability to avoid bad contracts and develop prospects that dramatically exceed their projections; not impossible, but looking less likely after the way this season has gone.
     
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  9. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Depends on how the FO shakes out and the decision making that follows.
     
  10. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    2026:
    C: Diaz
    1B: ?
    2B: ?
    3B: ?
    SS: Pena
    LF: ?
    CF: Chas
    RF: ?
    DH: Yordan
    bench: Dubon

    SP: Javier, McCullers, L.Garcia, France, ?
    bullpen: Abreu, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?

    75% can't miss impact prospects likely to be up and established by 2026: ?
     
  11. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Yep, they got a lot of work to do to fill all those holes.
    It better be fruitful work or we may be talking rebuild about then.
     
  12. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member
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    We will be awesome next year, in my humble opinion. Like 105 wins awesome.
     
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  13. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  14. Qan

    Qan Member

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    As long as Dusty is not the manager, I think the Astros can become awesome again. Health is important ofc.
     
  15. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I agree that the 2024 roster as constituted (if healthy) is a 100+ win team

    2024 (or even 2025) isn't the issue. 2026+ is
     
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  16. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    The Astros are now 180 degrees from the team Luhnow built. The players are not getting the information that made them the great defenders they where, and more offense has become the clarion call from the leadership. What was great about the Astros has gone from amazing to average and shows no signs of turning up. We have a Manager and a GM who might as well be making their decisions based on carefull study of a Ouija board. The science of decision making that once was is gone and luck is all we can hope for without it.
     
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  17. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    You drunk?
     
  18. Buck Turgidson

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    NOT TODAY
     
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  19. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I have been scrolling through old threads trying to find a relevant place to put this. Sorry if it's not perfect but does apply.

    One of the "problems" I think MLB has in waning popularity is that players are changing teams more than ever and fans must always move on rooting for new players.

    I am 100% in favor of players making as much money as they can, and playing wherever they want (after earning that privilege by paying their dues and original team recouping acquisition and development costs).

    So how does MLB balance giving players that freedom but provide incentive for them to remain with their original team after they hit FA? How do they motivate teams to sign their FA players rather than letting them walk?

    I would love to see teams get a "credit" for keeping their players. Here how it would work:

    To qualify a player would need to be on the team throughout their final 3 years of arbitration.

    Once qualified, the team gets 10% credit toward the CBT if they sign that player to another contract. This would also apply to extensions.

    Let's use Alex Bregman as an example. For example he files free agency in November and he has offers for 8 yrs / $240M. That would be a $30M AAV contract for anyone else but only $27M for the Astros.

    Now let's say Jim Crane and Dana Brown get creative and use the new incentive to keep him but have decided that they will go to 7 yrs but not 8.

    They could offer Alex a 7yr /$240M deal and Alex gets the same guarantee over 1 less season. The AAV towards CBT is just under $31M. I don't see Crane balking at the $0.9M, he has always worried about problems the length if a deal causes, not AAV.

    For current deals: Altuve, Bregman, McCullers, Yordan, and Javier the Astros CBT would be $9.3M less than it is right now.
     
    #59 IdStrosfan, Jan 11, 2024
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2024
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  20. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Building on my idea of a 10% CBT credit for teams to retain their FA:

    Let's say an aging star like Altuve gets an insane offer like 3yrs/ $120M from a team like the Giants who need a "face if the franchise" player to sell the fans and media.

    The Astros may have no choice but to match this offer because losing him would be a complete tragedy.

    The Astros would be able to match that offer with it only costing $36M vs CBT instead of $40M.
     

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