an 18wheeler in Karachi needs constant police escort , it's what it is ...a lot of things aren't under Pakistan Govt control, but... Trump's twittering over Pakistan has more to do with 1- the opening of China Silk road's port 2- replacing US$ with Yuan in bilateral trade 3- capitalization of future Afghanistan projects with China
I understand being unhappy with Pakistan's performance as a partner. But what @Exiled says is what concerns me. If we become combative with Pakistan, we push them into the arms of China and give China an opportunity to grow their sphere of influence. China isn't going to care about human rights abuses, and Pakistan will welcome their investments. It also would empower Islamic forces as the more pro-Western people in Pakistan are shown to be ineffective at bringing benefits. I don't think Trump is necessarily wrong in pushing Pakistan away. Courting Pakistan is probably a lost cause anyway. But, if someone is hoping that Pakistan was going to 'do better' and really fight Islamic terror to get back into Trump's good graces, well I don't think that's going to happen. I think they'll become more Islamic in their international stance, and they'll do more business with China. China will become more influential internationally and the United States' ability to meddle in South Asia will be reduced. If we're going this route, I hope at least we get closer with India. There is a lot of territory between Israel and South Korea without any other good friends.
It should be obvious that all endeavors in the Middle East are doomed to fail but we keep plowing more money and resources into that region.
Not sure about China empowering the Islamic forces in Pakistan. Pakistan borders Xinjiang, the last thing that China wants is some kind of fundamentalist Islamic regime next door. The Islamic factions in Pakistan probably dislike China as much as the US due to their treatment of some of their muslim minorities. As for getting closer to India, not sure if that's a viable long term strategy. India is becoming increasingly nationalistic & more fervent religiously, they are willing to play a secondary role globally right now but in 20-30 years when their GDP, military budget etc catch up to China's current level I'd imagine they'll behave very differently.
I'm less concnerned with Islamist militants. China doesn't want that at all. Where we'll see an impact is Indo-Pakistani relations. Severing the current relationship with Pakistan means losing any voice and influence with the Pakistani government/military in relation to India. So when things flare up between the two (which will inevitably happen), we'll have little to no power to do anything about it. And these are two countries with nuclear weapons after all. This is just another example of the US ceding its global influence. That isn't to say that our military aid is doing much for progress in the region but there are much smarter ways to go about this than a Trump twitter tirade. Also rather than looking at this like a Kissinger style map of risk, we just need to look holistically at the value of global stability. The world as a whole is quite stable relative to its overall history and a lot of that does have to do with US influence around the world. We're just creating new and uncertain futures while ceding our influence to China who has a different set of ambitions and objectives. Also its interesting you bring up our lack of allies in the region. This was the whole point of the Trans Pacific Partnership. The TPP was intended to help bind those regional economies to the US rather than China. We instead did the opposite. Even more interesting, TPP included NAFTA countries. It was the rewrite of NAFTA that Trump wanted all along and would've eventually replaced NAFTA as a trade agreement. We're focused on some of the outrageous tweets that Trump puts out but Trump's asia policy has been far larger and impactful
Agreed on China and Islamism. China doesn't want fundamentalists there any more than we do, I'd imagine, so there is still a tension there between being an Islamic nation and being an agreeable international partner to non-Muslim powers. The point I'm trying to express is that there are other power centers pulling on Pakistan and they are not likely to bend over backwards for the Americans when there are potential substitutes. As for India, I think they need better friends right now. They have the Islamic world on 2 sides of them and China on a third. They need a little extra muscle with China so close. They could use more help on development. They could use an ally on international interests. And we are not unfriendly with them and have a bit of cultural kinship with them. If we can help them now, it builds goodwill for relations 30 years from now.
Besides China and Pakistan, who cares? There is nothing wrong with nations having relationships outside the sphere of the US's influence. No. We're already close enough.
Well, probably everyone. The US is a global hegemon that maintains its wealth and power by leveraging other countries and blocking rivals. That provides American citizens peace and prosperity. It's not nice or just, but that's the way it is. If we stop doing that and our hegemony shifts to China or the Islamic World or some other center of power, the peace and prosperity you and I enjoy will be diminished. It is possible to enjoy life as an ex-hegemon -- France and Britain and Germany do that (though, with the formation of the EU, they are back as an international player) -- and I actually think we might be happier and less dysfunctional that way, but I wouldn't say it doesn't matter to anyone or that we shouldn't care what other countries do. They have their right to do whatever, but what they do will impact us.
I just don't see India as some kind of natural ally. The only reason why India is not more assertive & willing to challenge US as a global hegemon right now is because they are not powerful enough to do so yet. In 20-30 years when they catch up to China's current GDP, military budget levels etc I just can't imagine India being ok with US as a global hegemon and I think akhand bharat (greater India in which India claims several of its neighboring countries as it's territory) will become even more prominent and they'll increasingly view the Indian ocean as their exclusive playground. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/09/opinion/false-teachings-for-indias-students.html https://qz.com/1054692/in-the-versi...ks-china-lost-1962-and-gandhi-wasnt-murdered/
Holy cow! We could have been giving them an extra $900 million and Pakistan still would be a dirthole of a country that no American would ever visit, let alone immigrate to.
