If they end up going after Stanton, its with the mindset that they're not optimistic about re-signing all the core 4, and they simply want to stack the deck for the next 3-4 seasons with the best possible team in baseball. Realistically, they win just one more title over that time period, and they're in the upper echelon of results for any given era/regime. Winning another title may happen anyways (without obtaining Stanton)... and they may lose the core 4 anyways (without obtaining Stanton).
Couple of points.... 1) $25-$26MM/year for 3 years is actually on par with his value - before factoring in the cost of prospects. I don't think "a fraction of his value" is close to being accurate. 2) just to make sure you understand his deal - it's NOT a three-year deal; it's a 10-year deal. And he's owed, at minimum, $295MM. The wrinkle is that he CAN opt-out after three years - but to do so, he'll have to know he can land a deal bigger than 7/$208MM. If his next three years look like this past MVP season, that's certainly possible. But he has a history of battling injuries and as good as he's previously been, last year stands out as, for now, an anomaly. I've seen this elsewhere, so it's not directed at you alone - but people need to stop worrying about what National League teams do. It's silly to base personnel decisions on a team you MIGHT play in the World Series. Frankly, they don't really need to chase AL teams, either; although at least there's a greater chance of them fighting for seeding and/or meeting in the playoffs. But, even then - it's a crap shoot and you never know. [QUOTE="Houston_Rockets, post: 11468267, member: 46196"Now look, I understand, we want Correa, Altuve, Breg, Springer, Dallas to be Astros for life, but I think the earlier fans understand that it most likely won't happen, the earlier we start to maximize our big window we have in front of us IMO[/QUOTE] You wanna guarantee it never happens? Swallow a $295MM deal for a player on the back-half of his career.
Stanton is a want and NOT a need. Our offense is fine. Use that money for Altuve and pitching (especially after next yr...for DK or someone else).
25 million/year is likely about half to 2/3's what he's worth assuming he'll regress to about a 4-5 WAR player and Fiers doesn't bean him in the face again. Risk with him is more post-30.
Stanton is not a Luhnow-type move. We are, and will, function as a mid-market team. Stanton has a lengthy injury history and that type of contract can sink this organization if plans go awry. If they don’t, than he’s just here for 3 years. I’d rather ride those 3 years with Tucker, Springer, Reddick, Yuli, Marwin, and the rest of our youth manning the OF than risking 10 years of an oft-injured Stanton. Don’t get me wrong, fantastic player, but he’s one helluva risk that we don’t need to take. Much rather lock up other players, but hey, I’m not the GM of a WS winning team, so what the hell do I know.
We payed Beltran 16 a year to be a consultant on the bench most of the season. We can afford the money to get a guy who supplies an elite WAR every year. If you stick him in left or DH, then the Astros become very scary for the next three years. It would be a shocker if they didn't represent the AL in the world series in that time period every year.
Wow. Dee Gordon to train w/ Ken Griffey Jr and Mike Cameron, will play CF this year. SEA has quite a team coming together.
The Astros are very scary. If Astros are going to pay a guy that much money, I'm picking Altuve first. If Stanton has limited teams to Astros, LAD, ChC, and NYY, Miami may be forced to pick up a good portion of contract in later years or keep him.
The Astros have a damn good offense, but I think it's a mistake playing it safe and not trying to actively improve it. I thought we made a mistake at the deadline not trying to get another bat, but it worked out OK. Here's the question, and the answers might be different now after this season -- if we send out our farm for Stanton, and we win one more world series, was it worth it? I feel like 99% of us would say absolutely a year ago. How about now that we have one under our belt? One of my good friends is a die-hard Marlins fan -- would love to trade with us, though he did mention a Springer-Stanton swap. I don't think we'd do that... we have the pieces in the minors to get it done though.
If he were hitting the open market right now, he'd likely make.... more than $25MM, I guess - but there's no way he'd get $40-50MM/year.
No need for me to go point for point in some of the things you guys said because there is like 1% this actually happens but I appreciate them anyway. In my head, there is no way Stanton plays in our Astros offense, in Minute Maid Park and his numbers go down to the point where is agent, in 3 years thinks he can't get more money then what he will be getting in his current contract. As for injuries I don't believe Stanton is more injury prone then any other guy, so that risk is mute IMO. And as for our core, I think our guys are too good for teams not to go ham on them, I look at Correa and Altuve alone and I see 70M every year on the new contracts. Look I understand this is not basketball where one guy can win 20 games just by being on the team, and giving the farm for anyone is counterproductive but to me, if Martes is the best prospect you give up (guaranties that you don't pay all of the salary if you compare to the prospects rumored to be in the Sf deal), and you get Stanton for 3 year hitting bombs in Minute Maid, we put ourselves in the best position to win for those years, increasing also the probability of him opting out. Is a guy like Stanton our biggest need? No, but considering what we would be giving up and anticipating how productive he would be I think he becomes more valuable to us then his 295M contract would have you believe. And yes I mentioned NL teams because they are stacked, and he is (rumored) to be interested, so of course they should be mentioned even if Al teams are in fact our biggest threats.
Stanton can opt out if he wants to play elsewhere or feels that he deserves more money after the incoming Harper contract.
Games played, past six years: 159, 119, 74, 145, 116, 123. That is the most significant concern. If he can't stay healthy, he'll almost certainly opt-in. And then you're (way over)paying for seven years of a Carlo Lee-like decline. It'd be fun to have him - but a significant risk.
Wary of Stanton. I don't like deals that long. They can easily turn into a huge albatross. Maybe huge numbers and years will be floated when our guys start coming due in the next few seasons and while I love our core i'll still be wary of giving any player a 8 - 10 year deal.
I agree with this point. Shocked that Luhnow even reached out to kick the tires, although I guess it never hurts to ask. This team needs some help in a couple areas, bullpen being the most important. You don't spend that type of money on a guy like Stanton and risk fielding a worse team next year because your bullpen is a leaky faucet. If we add $25M to the payroll, I'm hoping it's because we added one or two elite relievers.
I mean, publicly, we have to appear interested. At the least, having our name in the hat ups the ante for other WS opponents. Helps MIA, too. I’m not surprised we’ve kicked the tires. Plus, I mean, imagine our lineup. For 3 years. To quote Bregman, “you kiddin me?!” Hell, who knows. Maybe we do pull it off. Maybe JL is set on letting several core players go. That’s really the risk. Maybe JL is confident enough that his future draftees can supplant the exodus of 3-4 core guys, enough to warrant the addition of Stanton, anywho. Stanton just seems very “anti-the-plan”. But if Luhnow thinks NYY is gonna make big money moves in the next few offseasons, which they will, then there may be merit in getting ready now while we are flexible. And you know JL would love to rub it in STL’s face, though he’s obviously not going to let that bias his decision.
