Fouling Stat Breakdown: Series Summary & Game 4 Officials Predictions

Hey all! Decided to do this again in it's own thread. I correctly predicted that the last game would see much fewer foul calls.

Just like players, officials have tendencies depending on their roles in the game. There is one MAIN ref and two CREW refs. The idea of this is to remain objective and see how much these ref assignments play a huge factor in how we can expect the game to be called. My methodology involves comparing season averages to the actual results. Weighted averages are used to calculate fouls per minute and I break down different roles on defense (defending ball handler, primary scorer and the rim). Please note that the sample size of our series is still very small.

Expectations of Fouls based on Regular Season Stats:

The facts
Houston is 8th in personal fouls drawn (20.3) and 15th in personal fouls committed (19.9)
San Antonio is 17th in personal fouls drawn (19.8) and 7th in personal fouls committed (18.3)

Six Assumptions/Predictions

1. One would expect that Houston would draw slightly less fouls on average because SA doesn't foul as often.
2. One would expect that San Antonio would draw their average fouls drawn because Houston is in the middle of the pack on fouls committed.
3. One would expect that Houston would commit their average number of fouls as San Antonio's average drawn because they are middle of the pack on committing fouls.
4. One would expect that San Antonio would commit slightly more fouls because Houston draws more fouls than normal.
5. One would expect that total fouls should be slightly less than the teams averages because of the above numbers.
6. One would expect that total free throws attempted should be slightly less than team combined averages.

Six Sets of Stats

1. Houston has drawn 13% less fouls than their season average.
2. San Antonio has drawn 2.37% less fouls than their season average.
3. Houston has committed 2.8% less fouls than their season average.
4. San Antonio has committed 3.4% less fouls than their season average.
5. The series has seen a 7.98% decrease in total fouls than what would be expected.
6. The series has seen a 10.76% decrease in total free throws than what would be expected.

Grading the assumptions

1. Houston draws slightly less fouls. Assumption INCORRECT in San Antonio's favor. While Houston is drawing less fouls, a 13% decrease here is huge.
2. San Antonio draws their average number of fouls. Assumption is CORRECT.
3. Houston commits their average number of fouls. Assumption is CORRECT.
4. San Antonio commits slightly more fouls. Assumption WAY OFF in San Antonio's favor. They are actually committing less fouls than their season average against an elite foul drawing team.
5. Average total foul number is slightly lower. Assumption slightly off in San Antonio's favor. An 8% decrease can most definitely sway the series. With that said, this prediction is still pretty correct.
6. Average total free throws is slightly lower. Assumption is off in San Antonio's favor. Houston thrives on making threes and getting to the paint to draw fouls & free throws.

Part 1 - Fouls Committed: The number of fouls called has almost been identical on San Antonio in every game. The Rockets have had quite a bit of variance in their fouls committed. Not much can be taken away from these stats other than the Spurs haven't had one game over 18 total fouls.


Part 2 - Free Throws Allowed: San Antonio is consistently getting 10-20% more free throw attempts than Houston in each game. This is way off from what we can expect from season averages. We all remember the Fizdale meltdown and Memphis was also an elite foul drawing team.


Part 3 - Fouls Rim Protecting Bigs: The more heavily the Spurs have relied on Gasol/LMA, the less they have been whistled. This has been less of a factor than I originally thought (see below). Both the Rockets and Spurs have been getting whistled more down low than their season averages. Houston is getting called for a slightly larger increase, +20.32% vs +17.12%.


Part 4 - Fouls on Defenders of Primary Ball Handlers: This is where I start to see a shift from the norm. I compared Beverly and Ariza to Green, Leonard, and Mills. These two Rockets are being called for 25% more fouls than their season averages. These three spurs are being called for only 3.8% more fouls than their season averages while guarding three solid foul drawing guards Harden, Lou, and Gordon.


Part 5 - Fouls on Defenders of Primary Scorers: Another huge shift from season averages. I compare Ariza to Leonard and Green. Ariza is being whistled 44.9% more frequently than his season average. Leonard/Green have seen a 22.4% increase, but is only HALF the increase of Ariza. I can note that this is one stat where you beware of small sample size.


Part 6 - Fouls committed by Superstars: This stat is ugly and again I'll say beware of small sample size. If there's one way to influence this series, it's to take Harden or Leonard out of a game. You would expect Leonard's fouls to be a little higher in this series due to the fact he has to guard Harden. This hasn't been the case. Harden has seen his fouls committed increase by 40.5% while Leonard has seen his fouls committed frequency decrease by a whopping 25%


Summary of "WTF" takeaways from stats:

1. Houston has shot 17.52% less free throws per game than San Antonio normally allows.
2. Houston has shot 37.13% less free throws per game than their season average.
3. Houston primary defenders of ball handlers are fouling 25% more than their season average.
4. Houston rim protectors are fouling 20% more than their season average.
5. Houston perimeter primary scorer defender (Ariza) is fouling 44.9% more than his season average.
6. Harden is fouling 40.5% more than his season average.
7. Leonard is fouling 25% less than his season average despite guarding Harden.

GAME 4 OFFICIATING EXPECTATIONS:
Mike Callahan (MAIN)- 38.7 Fouls per game in 60 games
John Goble (CREW) - 40.8 Fouls per game in 44 games
Sean Wright (CRW) - 42 Fouls per game in 39 games
Total Fouls: 121.5
Total Games Officiating at Position: 143
Crew Average: 40.5 Fouls Per Game
Crew Average weighted by games officiated: 40.24 Fouls Per Game

CREW PREDICTION
I expect to see an average number of whistles blown. This crew shouldn't hurt us as much as the last one did (They were expected to call 38.7 fouls in an average game), but they won't help us.

If you don't care to see all of the stats, you can stop here! For those who do... see next post!

 

SERIES SUMMARY


Fouls Committed:

Regular Season Stats
Houston: 19.9 Fouls
San Antonio: 18.3 Fouls
Total: 40.2 Fouls

Game 1:
Houston: 25 Fouls
San Antonio: 18 Fouls
Total: 43 Fouls

Game 2:
Houston: 15 Fouls
San Antonio: 18 Fouls
Total: 33 Fouls

Game 3:
Houston: 18 Fouls (Note: Increased by 2 or 3 at the end of the game on take fouls)
San Antonio: 17 Fouls
Total: 35 Fouls

Series Average:
Houston: 19.33 Fouls
San Antonio: 17.66 Fouls
Total: 36.99 Fouls


Free Throw Attempts ALLOWED:
Regular Season Stats
Houston: 26.1 FTAA
San Antonio: 20.2 FTAA
Total: 46.3 FTAA

Game 1:
Houston: 36 FTAA
San Antonio: 17 FTAA
Total: 63 FTAA

Game 2:
Houston: 18 FTAA
San Antonio: 15 FTAA
Total: 33 FTAA

Game 3:
Houston: 20 FTAA
San Antonio: 18 FTAA
Total: 38 FTAA

Series Average:
Houston: 24.66
San Antonio: 16.66 (-17.52% from Season Average)
Total: 41.32 FTAA (-10.76%)


Fouls called on Rim Protecting Bigs: Capela/Nene vs Gason/LMA
Regular Season Stats
Houston: 0.123 Fouls per minute (5.2 Fouls in 42.2 minutes)
San Antonio: 0.079 Fouls per minute (4.7 Fouls in 60 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.096 Fouls per minute

Game 1:
Houston: 0.146 Fouls per minute (6 Fouls in 41 minutes)
San Antonio: 0.064 Fouls per minute (4 Fouls in 54 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.105 Fouls per minute

Game 2:
Houston: 0.069 Fouls Per minute (3 Fouls in 43 minutes)
San Antonio: 0.101 Fouls per minute (6 Fouls in 59 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.088 Fouls per minute

Game 3:
Houston: 0.077 Fouls per Minute (4 Fouls in 48 minutes)
San Antonio: 0.058 Fouls per Minute (4 Fouls in 69 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.068 Fouls per minute

Playoff Average
Houston: 0.098 Fouls per Minute (+20.32% from regular season averages)
San Antonio: 0.082 Fouls per Minute (+3.79%)
Weighted Average: 0.068 Fouls per minute


Fouls called on Defenders of Primary Ball Handlers: Beverly/Ariza vs Green/Leonard/Mills
Regular Season Averages:
Houston: 0.076 Fouls per minute (5 Fouls in 65.4 minutes)
San Antonio: 0.070 Fouls per minute (6 Fouls in 85.3 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.096 Fouls per minute

Game 1:
Houston: 0.146 Fouls per minute (6 Fouls in 41 minutes)
San Antonio: 0.064 Fouls per minute (5 Fouls in 54 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.105 Fouls per minute

Game 2:
Houston: 0.069 Fouls Per minute (3 Fouls in 43 minutes)
San Antonio: 0.101 Fouls per minute (6 Fouls in 59 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.088 Fouls per minute

Game 3:
Houston: 0.077 Fouls per Minute (4 Fouls in 48 minutes)
San Antonio: 0.058 Fouls per Minute (4 Fouls in 69 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.068 Fouls per minute

Playoff Average
Houston: 0.098 Fouls per Minute (+25%)
San Antonio: 0.082 Fouls per Minute (+17.12%)
Weighted Average: 0.068 Fouls per minute


Fouls called on Defenders of Perimeter Primary Scorers(Perimeter): Ariza vs Green/Leonard
Regular Season Stats
Houston: 0.049 Fouls per minute (1.7 Fouls in 34.7 minutes)
San Antonio: 0.058 Fouls per minute (3.7 Fouls in 63.4 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.096 Fouls per minute

Game 1:
Houston: 0.146 Fouls per minute (2 Fouls in 35 minutes)
San Antonio: 0.055 Fouls per minute (3 Fouls in 54 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.105 Fouls per minute

Game 2:
Houston: 0.069 Fouls Per minute (3 Fouls in 43 minutes)
San Antonio: 0.101 Fouls per minute (6 Fouls in 59 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.088 Fouls per minute

Game 3:
Houston: 0.077 Fouls per Minute (4 Fouls in 48 minutes)
San Antonio: 0.058 Fouls per Minute (4 Fouls in 69 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.068 Fouls per minute

Playoff Average
Houston: 0.071 Fouls per Minute (+44.90%)
San Antonio: 0.071 Fouls per Minute (+22.4%)
Weighted Average: 0.068 Fouls per minute


Fouls committed by Superstars: Harden vs Leonard
Regular Season Stats
Harden: 0.074 Fouls per minute (2.7 Fouls in 36.4 minutes)
Leonard: 0.048 Fouls per minute (1.8 Fouls in 37.4 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.096 Fouls per minute

Game 1:
Harden: 0.146 Fouls per minute (3 Fouls in 31 minutes)
Leonard: 0.000 Fouls per minute (0 Fouls in 32 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.105 Fouls per minute

Game 2:
Harden: 0.118 Fouls Per minute (4 Fouls in 34 minutes)
Leonard: 0.00 Fouls per minute (0 Fouls in 38 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.088 Fouls per minute

Game 3:
Harden: 0.100 Fouls per Minute (4 Fouls in 40 minutes)
Leonard: 0.097 Fouls per Minute (4 Fouls in 41 minutes)
Weighted Average: 0.068 Fouls per minute

Playoff Average
Harden: 0.105 Fouls per Minute (+40.54%)
Leonard: 0.036 Fouls per Minute (-25.00%)
Weighted Average: 0.068 Fouls per minute

 

I definitely noted the small sample size. You can definitely validate certain assumptions based on season averages and matchups in the series. The general idea of this is to compare these assumptions to how the actual stats match up. It's unfortunate that things aren't working our way. With that said, it's not a conspiracy against us. It's been more about the ref assignments that we're given.