ClutchFans Game Thread: Thunder @ Rockets 4/16/2017 (Playoffs Round 1, Game 1)

Hell no.

Give them nothing!

 

If Russ explode and Harden choke, Rockets would be in trouble.

 

We gotta make sure to box out on D too. They have way more size than us

 

Rockets win game one then sweeeeep

 

I would agree but you have to remember. McHale was at the helm. Somehow he assumed LMA lighting our asses up was just luck so no adjustments needed until it was too late.

 

This is going to be a fun one. So many storylines.

MVP situation obviously. Then you can't skip Bev and Westbrook.

This is where you find out how Mature Harden is. If Westbrook starts off hot, as hard as it may be Harden has to stick to the game plan, do not try and match shot for shot with Westbrook, and so far when we've played them he's done a good job at that.

To me, the X factor is Ryno... yes... I said Ryno. I just don't see any of their 4's willing to go as far out as his range allows him. Now all you gotta do is Pray Beverley smacks him upside the head and teaches him that boxing out is hustle. Don't have to be the biggest or the fastest, just put a body on a the guy, that's it.

 

We also would've won Game 1 if Dwight could've hit a free throw to save his life.

 

I would say "Let it Rain" but that's probably bad weather karma for Houston given what's happened the last two playoff seasons.

 

That year the Rockets had the same record as Portland. Much more evenly matched then that this series with the way Russell plays.

 

So when we beat the Thunder does anyone think we'll beat the Warriors?

 

Would have to go through the Spurs first to even think about the Warriors.

 

If we don't beat them, hopefully the ghost of Dmo's sweat will injure their star players so they can take another L in the finals.

 

that plus 16-17 Harden>>>>>13-14 Harden

back then Harden was just an all star, now he's a legit MVP candidate

 

Man Clutchfans this is taking for ever go ahead and start up the Rockets vs. Golden State WCF game 1 thread so I can keep it warm as our Rockets ascend .

 

Haha well my gf actually just got us tickets through her contact at the NBA, so I'll be there! She worked for Sky Sports in London and I've reaped the benefits. She also got me tickets to game 4 NBA finals Heat @ Spurs. Bet I'm not letting her out of my sight.

 

Awesome! Bring the energy. We gotta rep clutchfans haha

 

Our offense gets a lot of attention, and rightfully so, but I take a lot of comfort in the fact that we have two ++ perimeter defenders in Bev and TA and a masterful tactician in Bzdelik crafting our defensive blueprint.

 

5-on-5: Does Westbrook or Harden have edge? Can OKC pull upset?

Spoiler

What's the most important thing to watch when Russell Westbrook and James Harden are on the floor? Will the Houston Rockets look like title contenders?

Our 5-on-5 crew breaks down the Rockets-Thunder first-round playoff series and predicts the winner.

1. What is the most important thing to watch in this series?

Chris Herring, FiveThirtyEight: Oklahoma City's tempo. The Thunder have very little offense outside of Russell Westbrook, so they try to get out and run whenever possible. But playing an up-and-down game against a fast-paced, highly efficient team like the Rockets sounds like a death wish.

A slower pace might work better for OKC, but it figures to be an uphill battle either way. Houston went 8-1 in games where it took 95 shots or more, and 12-3 in games with 80 shots or fewer.

Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: How many minutes can Russell Westbrook play? Coach Billy Donovan exhibited remarkable discipline in keeping Westbrook's minutes below 35 MPG this season. I certainly wouldn't have the stomach to do it. Now he can enjoy the big payoff.

Westbrook played about 40 MPG in non-blowouts last postseason, but that was when the Thunder had Kevin Durant to help carry the load. With Victor Oladipo as the second playmaker, will Donovan dial Westbrook's minutes up to the 42- to 45-minute range? It might be the Thunder's only hope. But they don't want to burn him out too quickly. That is, if he's subject to human limitations.

Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Will the Rockets hit their 3s? The Rockets take more 3s than any NBA team in history, about 40 per game. That's great if the shots fall, but it can lead to increased variance. When you're playing a better team, variance is great. Since the Thunder are only slightly inferior, the Rockets' high-variance approach may end up biting them in the behind if the 3s aren't dropping.

Micah Adams, ESPN Stats & Info: We know Houston can be competitive with Harden off the floor as their net rating of plus-2.8 is still playoff-caliber. But can OKC's reserves keep it close when Westbrook needs a breather? While you'd expect his minutes to approach 40, it's untenable to expect him to play much more given his style of play. With Westbrook off the floor, OKC had the scoring margin of a 21-win team.

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: The Rockets' 3-point attempts. Oklahoma City allowed the sixth-lowest 3-point attempt rate during the regular season, and obviously Houston was No. 1 by a wide margin in attempts. The Rockets won three of four in this matchup during four regular-season meetings, averaging 40 3-point attempts per game.

2. When Russell Westbrook and James Harden are on the floor, what will you be watching for?

Haberstroh: I wonder whether Harden or Westbrook will get caught up in the MVP race and try to win it by himself. Yes, the MVP votes have been cast, but it's in their competitive nature to settle it on the floor.

Here's the thing: I wonder whether Harden will confidently lean on Lou Williams, who, amazingly, has a worse effective field goal percentage in a Rockets uniform this season than Corey Brewer. If Harden tries to win these playoff games by himself, I could see it going sideways. But Williams has infamously stunk it up in the playoffs. Can he come up big for Harden?

Pelton: Whether the teams can take advantage of the other star defensively. The starting lineups in this series should offer friendly hiding spots, with Harden presumably defending Andre Roberson and Westbrook on Patrick Beverley. But both teams can throw out better offensive lineups that would force the MVP contenders to work harder on defense.

Adams: Which team can force the opposing superstar to work hard at both ends. Since both are integral to facilitating everything offensively, can either team make the opposing star expend energy on the defensive end?

I wouldn't expect to see much of Harden and Westbrook guarding each other, which puts pressure on the wings to keep them honest. While you wouldn't want to take the ball out of your best players' hands too much, leaning on Oladipo or Eric Gordon ensures Westbrook and Harden can't simply conserve energy.

Herring: The supporting casts. Both players are great, but they'll likely cancel each other out. Houston has players who can score regardless of whether Harden's on the court, whereas the Thunder may need a player or two to contribute more than usual on O to really stand a chance in this series.

Engelmann: This season, Harden (464) and Westbrook (438) had the most turnovers for a season in league history. (The previous record: Harden in 2015-16 with 374.) So it'll be interesting to see who takes care of the ball better. If Westbrook can somehow keep his turnovers low, he'll increase the Thunder's chances significantly.

3. Fact or Fiction: Patrick Beverley will slow down Russell Westbrook.

Pelton: Fact. When Beverley was on the court against the Thunder this season, Westbrook shot just 41.5 percent, according to NBA.com/Stats.com, and had as many turnovers as assists. The problem for the Rockets comes when they try to defend Westbrook with someone -- anyone -- else. In those situations, Westbrook's shooting percentage improved to 48.0 percent from the field.

Engelmann: Are the Rockets even trying to slow down Westbrook? According to Dennis Rodman, when the Bad Boy Pistons played Michael Jordan, they'd let MJ get his points but focus on shutting down everyone else. I can see the Rockets employing a similar strategy with Westbrook.

Herring: Both. Beverley will probably slow him down some, but not singlehandedly. I'd expect for Beverley and the Rockets to occasionally trap Westbrook to force the ball out of his hands. OKC, which according to Synergy has shot just 3-of-14 this year when Westbrook gets trapped, will have to prove someone else can score.

Adams: Fact. In the three games Beverley played in versus the Rockets, he guarded Westbrook nearly 60 percent of the time, more than twice as much as any other Rockets defender. When guarded by Beverley in the half court, Westbrook averaged 0.84 points per play. When guarded by anyone else, he averaged 1.05 points per play.

Haberstroh: Fiction, but that might be a good thing. Here's why: Westbrook wants to destroy Beverley, but that plays precisely into the Rockets' hands. With Beverley on the floor, Westbrook scores 39.4 points per 36 minutes. Amazing! But there's a catch: It's hyper-volume, not efficient, scoring.

With Beverley out there, Westbrook shoots 41.5 percent on 29.8 field goal attempts per 36 minutes (30 percent on 11.3 3-point tries, per NBA.com/Stats). When Beverley sits? Westbrook shoots 48 percent on "just" 21.4 field goal attempts per 36 minutes (46.7 percent on "just" 6.4 3-point tries). The sample size is small, but the Thunder are minus-16 when Beverley is on the floor with Westbrook and plus-14 when Beverley is out of the picture. In this case, maybe less is more.

4. ESPN's BPI puts OKC's upset chances at 20 percent: Too high, too low, just right?

Adams: Just right. Westbrook can single-handedly win this series and could legitimately threaten Jerry West's record for highest scoring average in a playoff series (46.3 PPG). However, Houston's ability to catch fire from 3 and Harden's own ability to blow up the box score give the Rockets multiple options to negate Westbrook's individual dominance.

Engelmann: Too low. My own projections, which estimate team strength by summing up the real plus-minus (RPM) ratings of a team's players, say the Thunder have a 29 percent chance of pulling off an upset. It helps that the Thunder bench, which was often terrible in the regular season, will see less playing time in the playoffs.

Haberstroh: Too low. This series was decided by a Harden beard hair in the regular season. Yes, the Rockets won three of four. But three of the games were decided by three points or fewer. With everyone healthy on the Thunder's side and a question mark on Harden's wrist, this is closer to a toss-up.

Herring: Just right. The Rockets have far more firepower and should win. But the Thunder's defense is very good. If they can force Harden into even more turnovers than usual -- and prevent Houston from killing them at the 3-point line -- they'll have a chance of winning the series.

Pelton: About right. Given the gap between the two teams in point differential - which is larger than their difference in wins because Oklahoma City outperformed its differential -- and the Rockets' 3-1 advantage head-to-head, my model puts the Thunder's chances around 11 percent. However, turn one of the close finishes into a win and that would increase to ... 20 percent.