I like the idea of slotting Gattis between two lefties. If the other team wants to throw LHPs at McCann/Aoki/Reddick/etc, force the opponent to use their LHP against Gattis as well, who murked LHP in 2016.
LHPs Springer Beltran Altuve Correa Gattis Bregman Reddick Gurriel (DH) Gonzalez Gattis in front of Bregman protects you if you want to bring McCann in later in the game, Marwin plays 1B and Beltran plays LF.
It appears our FO grades Martes on level with superstars like Correa and Bregman. If they grade him like that, no way that he is packaged for a mid-level SP like Quintana.
I'm sorry, but mid level? That's ignorant. He finished in the top ten in ERA the past two seasons in the A freaking L and had a FIP below 3 the year before. He's arguably one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball which is something the Astros truly lack. And in what world is Martes on par with the number one and two picks in their respective drafts? Sure, Martes is valued, but not to that level. I'm just tired of people acting like trading a guy who has yet to throw a major league pitch is a bad move. This team needs a dependable #1/#2 arm, and Quintana fits the bill. Martes/Reed/not Tucker but anyone else and it's an easy pull.
Lots of variables. Quintana has been dependable in a White Sox uniform. We can't say that he'll be the same as an Astro. He's a fly ball pitcher. He's allowed 85 home runs in his career. 34 were go ahead HR's and 51 of the 85 were hit to LF. Left field in Minute Maid is 15 feet shorter than US cellular. I'm not saying Quintana is bad at all. He has been great for the CWS but if you're Luhnow you have to think about how much you want to risk on the assumption of Quintanas dependability.
So i assume you didnt want Sale either, because we cant be sure his results would translate to MMP. Or any pitcher for that matter. Strikeouts arent everything, Quintana has been awesome, and extremy consistent home and away. Roy Oswalt got results in a very similar way. Honestly i almost have him dead even with Sale.
These same 4-5 names keep popping up over and over .... Martes is clearly on the table as the centerpiece of any deal for Q Bregman and Tucker are almost certainly not Should be enough talent in our system beyond those 3 to work out a deal once WSox realize nobody else will bring a better offer Still really like the idea of expanding this deal to include Abreu Our addition of Reed + 1 or 2 other lesser pieces (#12-20 range in our system) to whatever they want for just Quintana should be a pretty fair deal for both sides They get pro-ready 1B replacement making peanuts next 3 years as they develop all this new talent who is still Top 3 prospect at his position in all MLB We get to accelerate AJ's potential forward a few years with another consistent veteran hitter under our control for this 3-yr window of contention making a relative bargain (approx $12M projected ARB for 2017) Quintana is still the main target, but our chances may even improve with him if we can convince CHI that a swap of Reed for Abreu provides them even more value They currently have zero 1B listed among their Top 30, and have already stated Moncada will play 2B If they are intent on completing the auction by moving Abreu's salary at some point, the list of partners with a replacement as attractive as Reed is only a handful of other teams (PIT-Bell, NYM-Smith, CLE-Bradley) Seems this is the current Luhnow Untouchable List: Altuve Correa Bregman Tucker LMJ Keuchel I would personally add Forest Whitley to that group unless for a superstar like Sale Excluding those core untouchables, I would be willing to part with anyone else in the system to add Q & Abreu For discussion I would also still include Reed & Musgrove among our Top 10 prospects Since WSox are obviously all-in with full youth movement, I don't see a fit with any of our vets rumored to be available Like Sale & Eaton deals, everything headed that way would be very young, cheap and talented To Bear Bryant - I know for this kind of deal the total players moving would be more like 8-10 Originally I meant it would take 5 KEY pieces from us that would hurt to get those 2 KEY guys from WSox The backside filler (Moran Preston Kemp Teo Rodgers etc) involved doesn't really interest me, so I didn't bother including to keep it simpler 7 total players moved in final Giles deal But really it was a 2 for 1 exchange of 3 total 'Key' pieces We got 1 - Giles They got 2 - VV + Fisher (at first) ... then Appel ultimately I never saw the other 4 (Obie Esh both Arauzes) as anything but footnotes Sometimes those footnotes blossom into Frances Martes, but far more often they remain irrelevant Do you think 5 'Key' pieces is the right #? What about the 5 listed ... any others you'd swap in that would entice CHI more? Is 5 of top 7 prospects from a good system like ours not enough? That is basically what they received for 2 others they already moved: Moncada Giolito Kopech Lopez now rank as their Top 4-6 prospects The rest are really just 'guys' Sale is also a better player than Quintana ... is Abreu really THAT much better than Eaton (if at all?) I don't recall any deal where a trade wiped out a team's entire Top 7 at once ... that's like MLB version of Ditka's Ricky Williams draft trade How about this for a complete, fair 9-player deal? 2 - Quintana + Abreu for 7 - (6 of our top 9) (3) - Martes RSP (2) - Reed 1B (8) - Musgrove RSP (9) - Fisher LF (5) - Daz CF (6) - Moran 3B/1B (15) - Arauz 2B/SS *(ASTROS Top30 RANK - MLB Preseason 3/1) That leaves us only 3 (Tucker, Whitley & Paulino) from our current Top 10 Huge price to pay, but accelerating past the growing pains of the 2 big losses (Martes & Reed) into the prime years of 2 established stars (Q & Abreu) might put us over the top Musgrove, Daz & Fisher would be the painful cost of that acceleration Considering the ridiculous value both Q & Abreu also bring financially for several more seasons, it would still be worth it Whatever other pieces end up involved will most likely become trivial details in the big picture How much more than that can WSox reasonably expect for those 2 from anyone even in separate deals? Quintana is NOT Sale or even close to true 'Ace' status after just 1 great season preceded by 3 good years In 5 seasons he's 46-46 with 1 AS nod & 1 Top10 CY finish If anything he's more on the Keuchel level His prospect cost should be more in line with guys like Sonny Gray or Archer ... maybe slightly lower bc he's already making decent $ In the end, even Sale only netted 2 KEY pieces in return (Moncada + Kopech) and a couple of fillers Granted, Moncada might be the most valuable trade chip in the minors, but Sale might be the best LH SP in the AL over the past 5 seasons Verlander is the only real Ace still likely to move, but I'm terrified of his mileage leaving us in a SF Zito situation the next 3 yrs unless DET picks up a ton of that $ to lighten our risk Greinke would also qualify, but his contract is even worse and he has nearly as much mileage coming off an awful season As for Abreu ... his timing in hitting the market is quite unfortunate for him and CHI I mentioned before that in this pathetic 2016 FA market, the only type of player with an excess abundance of cheap options available is the Abreu style: Big/slow/old DEF-weak power hitters with little upside or positional flexibility whom are limited to DH/1B/LF Many of the teams looking for someone like this have already found their solution with guys like Holliday, Moreland, Pearce and Beltran signed Despite this, several more (EE, JoeyBats, Trumbo, Carter, Napoli) are still waiting for decent offers as a result of this flooded buyer's market How many of the few teams still in need of this style player would be willing to surrender anything of value in an Abreu-only deal when they can just go sign a similar FA and lose zero prospects? Even we don't really need him I brought up pairing him with Q in an expanded deal simply as an alternative to EE originally I see him as a low-risk, proven upgrade at 1B over both Yuli (cheaper & younger) & AJ (patience & consistency) He could provide EE type impact on the lineup at a fraction of the price and without sacrificing a draft pick Why not if all it costs you is Reed and another spare part or 2? The Cubs traded way more to rent Aroldis for a couple of months ... think anybody on N Side is sweating those traded prospects today?
Well, then there was this guy... Though I agree -- Bregman and Correa were both top 3 prospects in baseball (and for some, top 1) when they were called up. Martes isn't quite at that level, but he's a notch below.
I love Martes as much as the next guy, hell I even picked him up a few years ago in a dynasty league I'm in. I think he's going to be good, really good. But even with that, you are basically hoping he realizes his potential and becomes as good as Jose Quintana. So why not trade him, along with other pieces, to eliminate that risk, and simply use him to actually get Quintana. The real crux is "what else would it take?" I am sure the White Sox are demanding BOTH Kyle Tucker and Martes, and I am sure our front office is standing firm with "We'll include Martes as the centerpiece, and we will add intriguing prospects as well, but probably in our 6-10 prospect range, instead of Kyle Tucker." I'm ok with both stances honestly, it makes sense from both perspectives. For the same reason I would do a Martes-centric deal for Quintana, I would not do it if I am the White Sox.
We need a starter...Mets need catching....how about trading Gattis to the Mets for one of their starters....Lugo and even Wheeler.
And I would bet, in response to your post, is me warning everyone to be careful not to set expectations too high with "what if"s... So I get it. I'm not suggesting the Astros should assume success and health for both guys and forgo searching for additional arms; I'm merely underscoring that, even with Keuchel's disappointing season and McCullers' injuries, the rotation was still above-average last year. Therefore, the search for arms should be appropriately managed in that light. (ie Alex Bregman's name coming up should prompt an immediate hang-up.)
Someday maybe ... I hope To this point I'm a petrophysicist who spends way too much time recording my thoughts on an obsessive hobbies I save these as email drafts in various stages of development so they end up pretty lengthy sometimes over the course of a few days/weeks/months You should see some of the threads with notes on fictions I've been building for years ...
I've had my eye on Quintana for a loooong time. I'm floored there are seemingly this many people that undervalue Quintana and overvalue prospects. I would trade the potential of Martes for Quintana every day of the week and 14 times on Sunday. It's a no brainer, IMO.
I know you have a presence on Twitter. Astros Twitter (particularly some of the bloggers) overvalues prospects so much it's ridiculous. Every prospect is Mickey Mantle or Cy Young waiting to happen...so trading 22 year old Cy Young for Quintana!??!!?? No way!!!! Kills me.
Bregman I get; there is literally not a pitcher in baseball I'd trade Bregman for. But Daz Cameron? I think some of this might be NL hangover - they see a 3.25+ ERA and think that it's bad. It is NOT bad in the AL. Quintana is a legit TOR starter who turns 28 next month and makes $38MM the next four years. I honestly don't care what *prospect* they want, I'd do it.
