So you're basing your analysis on one poll? Early voting this year is especially high in Democratic-leaning counties and the Hispanic vote is on the rise too, both of which are very bad news for Trump no matter how much you try to spin it.
If Hillary's internal polls were showing her losing the election, her campaign would be in total panic mode, which they are not. This proves nothing in and of itself. Romney via his internal polls thought he was cruising for a victory in 2012. (The 2012 Dems polls proved to be more on the money.) We will see.
It is, you are right! And it still isn't turning out Obama 12 numbers. Cubans(Hispanic) favor Trump. The Hispanic vote will not be as effective for HrC in Florida. I'm basing my analysis on 2008/2012 when Obama ran(who was by far a more popular canidate). You are in for a rude awakening.
I think you are going to be surprised by what the Latino vote in Florida is made up of in 2016 vs 2012 or 2008. It's not the conservative Cubans anymore.
This is most likely path for Clinton win. Trump has potential to turn NV, Co,NM,PA,Michigan,Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
Then what is it? Did the Cubans become real Hispanics? Trends suggest Trump. Please tell me how this year is different.
Ironically, the Republicans repealing the Puerto Rican tax exemptions in the 90s might come back to haunt them. Repealing the tax benefits for corporations in Puerto Rico pretty much destroyed the economy there and created a running series of budget deficits that culminated in bankruptcy. All of those job losses resulted in Puerto Ricans moving to the mainland (many of those going to Florida). That group is skewed heavily to the Democrats and are almost as large as the Cuban population in Florida. And that's not even including the Latino population from other areas in Latin America.
Well IMO what the race really comes down to is going to be Nevada. I think Trump gets one electoral vote from Maine and I think he ends up winning Florida. If Hillary wins Nevada, she wins the race, if Trump wins Nevada, he wins the race. Of course some unforeseeable massive turnout by either candidate could sway the election one way or the other.
Older Cubans who know about the horrors that Castro and communism brought to their homeland are generally conservative, younger Cubans....well they don't know any better so they are usually very liberal.
Yeah. Even then, Trump is going to win over more hispanics in Florida than other states. That's just a fact.
I think Colorado swings the election. Trump is dead even right now and independents may swing it either which way. It's something to note that in the last few days, Hilary is campaigning in what states? That's more telling than any poll out there.
Total panic mode?The Potus/Hilary has been campaigning every day in blue states this last week. Inviting Jay Z/Beyoncé to rallies for turnout. Her twitter account has gone unhinged at times. I see panic.
