True, but if we continue our pace from the last two games, we would be 32-18 on June 1st, which surely would lead the division if not the league :grin:
Pretty silly to put any stock in "on pace" on May 5th. Houston is "on pace" for 56 wins. Altuve is "on pace" for almost 50 HR. Anything related to "on pace" at this point that lasts the entire season will be the exception rather than the rule. Again, if Houston gets to .500 by mid-June, they're in good shape. Get there, make a big trade, have a hot July, and they're very likely within 1-2 games of the division with a stacked roster and tons of momentum.
Agreed. If "pace" mattered, I'd be on pace to be dead of alcohol poisoning by June 15th. Hopefully the "pace" changes for the better so I don't have to do that.
Don't look now, but Feldman has the 3rd best ERA on the staff at 3.65. Only Devs and Harris are ahead of him. Right now wouldn't be a good time to relieve him from the 25-man. He's pitched well in the bullpen since being demoted (0.00 ERA / 0 Hits / 0 BBs / 4 Ks ) and should now be pitching not just extended relief, but more pressurized situations. Right now, I'm more confident in him than several other relievers. He might fall on his face, but his role should reconsidered.
ESPN article talking about the Angels trading Trout now that Richards is out for 15 months and it's obvious Pujols is toast. Now, personally I think the hypotheticals they threw out are too light, and I don't think any team will ever trade a player as good as Trout, but here's my Astros' hypothetical: Astros get: OF Mike Trout C Taylor Ward Angels get: OF George Springer SP Lance McCullers IF Alex Bregman SP Joe Musgrove 2B Tony Kemp Sure, Springer and McCullers are a tough pair to give up. But that's the cost of acquiring a hall of famer in his prime with 4+ years of control left.
And why would the Angels do this again? Is it really that hard to develop/draft/acquire all of the players you just listed for the Astros? Yes, those are all solid players... and some have some pretty good potential... but none of them expected to have the ceiling of Trout. They go back to drafting well, scour the international market, and make a play for some arb-eligible players that cheaper teams don't want to pay... and you can build a team around Trout that can win some games.
The problem is they only have Trout thru 2020. They have Simmons thru that same year. But every other decent player they have is either aging or about to reach free agency. And they have no farm. They have 2 decent prospects (Ward and Smith). 2 good players, 2 decent prospects, and some money (not much considering Pujols, Trout, and Simmons are getting paid) are not enough to build a contender in less than 3 years. Developing international prospects has a minimum 5 year payoff. Even if they focus on college draftees it's a minimum 3 year payoff. By that time Trout is gone. The Angels are in a lose-lose situation. Either they keep Trout/Simmons and waste a hall of fame player's prime with mediocre teams, or they rebuild (in which case it will be almost impossible to get "fair value" for Trout). The real solution is for the owner to realize that and spend his way out the situation with free agents and MLB ready Cubans. But he may be tapped out and even that is a risky venture. I don't think they'll trade Trout. But if they did that package from Houston is probably pretty close to what they'll get, in my opinion.
Also, the answer to your question is yes, it is really that hard to develop/draft/acquire the players I listed; Houston had to suck harder than any team in history over 4 seasons and trade away every player of value they had in order to build a farm filled with those types of prospects/players.
I wouldn't do that if I were the Astros. The combo of Springer,McCullers and 100 million you that would be owed to Trout will provided comfortably more value than Trout will himself. Not to mention the prospects. Musgrove and Bregman could be traded for a star without the other 3.
Not really. They drafted Springer, Correa and McCullers in back to back years based on seasons where they were actually trying to win (last of the two Ed Wade years.... Appel was actually the first draft pick after the complete tear down). They also kept Springer down a lot longer than most teams would, while they were trying to continue to execute the strategy that would eventually yield the Aiken pick that obviously didn't pan out. Musgrove and Kemp could have been had by any team in the later rounds. You don't have to suck royally to get those guys. Basically, Bregman is the only prospect the Astros have left that they wouldn't have been in position to draft without intentionally tanking... And again that was a year delay due to the Aiken debacle.
Not sure I would either. We would be depleting a ton of depth. On the other hand, that is the type of haul Trout would command.
There are prospects out there that do have a bit of the "unknown" when it comes to the limits of their potential...I'd say for the Astros, those players currently include Martes, K. Tucker, and D. Cameron (albeit he's off to a slow start). That sort of potential obviously dwindles as a player gets older and advances up the system. If the Angels were ever to actually trade Trout... and were doing it in the name of fully rebuilding... I would see them going after the guys with more upside than the ones listed (even though the ones listed have actual MLB time). But lets be honest... this is exactly why they wouldn't trade him... no guarantee that is actually makes them better either short-term or long-term, vs. simply drafting well, signing key free agents, and building around a brand/franchise player still in his early 20's.
Great feedback. I think Reed & Moran is the simplest yet potential highest reward move the Astros can make. Could significantly help out the offense. For pitching, I think Dallas eventually turns it around. He's had a couple pretty bad outings, but he's also dominated a couple outings. I tend to think he's putting too much pressure on himself due to team struggles. When Lance comes back, some of the pressure will (hopefully) be alleviated and we can roll with Dallas/Lance/Devenski/Fister/Fiers rotation. Colin needs to prove he hasn't actually fallen off the cliff just yet. This is where a trade could pay enormous dividends. We need some additional starting pitching depth. Bullpen seems like it needs an overhaul. I really like Giles, but dude is rocked right now. Can't pitch in pressure situations. Luke isn't really a Closer, but who else do you throw out there? Harris? We've certainly got talent in the bullpen but it all hinges on Giles getting his ***** together. Harris/Gregerson/Giles for 7/8/9 could be dominant. If he was just massively overrated, then we better have a 3+ run lead heading to the bullpen every night. Last point, and I don't want to overreact, but has Lunhow won a big time trade yet? Gomez has never really clicked with us, and Fiers has 1 half of a good season. Giles has been absolutely awful. Yet guys that we've been getting rid of (Carter, Martinez, Vince) seem to really be hitting our stride. Sounds like a systemic issue...
They face the same dilemma any club contemplating rebuilding does. By the time (4-5 years) you build up the farm system via the draft, the guys you have now (Trout) maybe out of team control. So in essence, by the time your rebuild takes hold, the guys you have now that are really good maybe gone, which is why the Astros did, and perhaps the Angels as well, would see the logic in getting all they can for their current players if a total rebuild is their plan. There is a rebuild and then there is total rebuild. Astros went total rebuild. Angels may not. But Trout will be 25 in August. In 5 years, 30. Would it make sense for the Angels to keep Trout and waste his best years during a rebuild? No doubt he will still be useful at 30 years old. But I cant imagine Trout being too happy about winning 50 or 60 something games during his peak years waiting around several years before his team will compete again. That said, if I were the Angels and I was going to trade Trout, id want high ceiling guys that are 20-23 years old, guys who will be peaking in 4-5 years. Maybe not a guy like Springer that is only 2 years younger than Trout is.
I just don't think teams with money face the same dire circumstances where you have to dump your stars (in this case, HOF stars), in their primes, in order to jump-start the system. Even the Astros... who had Oswalt, Pence, Berkman, and Bourne (not really a star, but still had value) didn't really get the sort of return on those guys that made a lasting impact. Pence was the closest... with Cosart, Singleton, Santana, Zeid in return... which then turned into Marisnick, Moran, Martes, draft pick (Cameron), and helped get Gomez. In the end, the Astros fortunes will still be largely determined by Keuchel (already in system), Altuve (already in system), Springer (drafted after 2010 when they were still trying), Correa and LMJ (drafted in 2011, a year they were also still trying, but finally gave out... something that could happen with the Angels). The rest of the depth acquired through sucking and trading stars is so that they hopefully don't bottom out again... and can continue to trade pieces for established players to supplement the core (so far, not really working out as planned). Also, Springer is actually 2 years OLDER than Trout... again, not likely to be done.
Ooooops. All the more reason they would want someone like Reed rather than Springer in this hypothetical deal and rebuild. By your own logic though, a guy like Trout might bring a return that is lasting. Certainly having $$$ to spend helps. But they have had the money all along and haven't been able to break out. They are already 6th in spending at $168M. Unless they are willing to add another 30-40M to that, I cant see how their situation will change greatly in the perceivable future merely going about things as normal. I probably agree trading Trout is unlikely in any case.
If I were trading for Trout no way I would include Springer If I'm moving a ton of young talent for a hundred million dollar player I'm adding Trout to Altuve Springer Correa and trying to develop a dominant lineup, not trying to just upgrade from Springer to Trout
