Realistically you shouldn't expect a huge free agent signing of $100,000,000 any time soon... it would probably require an exceptional deal under market, or a circumstance where they are moving out salary in a corresponding move. Also the reality is that the Astros don't have a lot of money. They were leveraged to the hilt when bought and the bankruptcy issues didn't help. Once more money is flowing in for a longer period of time, I think you will see more money spent, but mostly to keep our own guys.
.299/.489/.788 after March/April. Of course, that was somewhat augmented by his ridiculous # of triples (11). If we cut those in half (give him 6 2B and 5 3B, instead), his slugging % drops 12 points (.477). And if we reduce it down to his previous career high (1 3B; so 27 2B), it falls 20 points (.469). I'd be OK with a DH that slugs .469 except... He drew 30 walks in 604 PAs. His OB% was .285. Even throwing out his worst month, it only rose to .299. That's abysmal. Last year was, to date, peak Evan Gattis - career high in doubles, triples and home runs (not to mention walks). Also, to be fair, plate appearances. And he finished with an OPS of .748. He'd have to improve on peak Evan Gattis to reach 30/.800 - do you think that's realistic?
That's fair and I don't have a major issue with that. But it does give ammunition to the "Crane is cheapskate" crowd. The argument before was that they would spend money when they were competitive and it could put them over the top. That time is reasonably now - I understand they've increased payroll some so it's technically true, but I don't think people read that to mean that our cap would still be near the bottom of MLB teams.
Curious, do people think that Lucroy is that much better than Castro to warrant dumping prospects to get him? I think he is marginally better, but not so much that I'd want to dump very much for him. I could only see a trade scenario happen for Lucroy if Castro gets hurt. And Lucroy only has one more year of control than Castro, so it would be dumping prospects for one additional year. Don't see Luhnow making that move.
I don't think last year was Peak Evan Gattis. While he had higher counting statistics, he worse than normal in other ways. He hit a HR every 20-21 ABs instead of the 16-17 he had one the previous two years. You changed his triples to doubles, but what if you change those to HRs to get more in line with his historical HR rate? If he hit HRs last year at the same pace as the past, he hits 34 HRs. His OBP certainly does suck. He seems suited to the 6-7 spots where he'd just hitting for power and getting people in, but where it's not as critical for him to get on base for mediocre 8 and 9 hitters.
Depending on how this season plays out, I could see us investing big money in an OF. Gomez and Rasmus could be gone creating a hole, and Fisher is the only OF prospect close. It would really be a near perfect scenario (pressing need, no prospects close, spending money available). Plus the DH allows us to move players around when Tucker and/or Cameron are ready. With Feldman/Gomez/Rasmus/Neshek all coming off the books, and a likely continued increase in payroll we should have quite a bit of money to work with next off season.
Assuming last year was a fluke, Lucroy is much better offensively and also offers a different look to the lineup - high BA, high OBP and far fewer strikeouts. Whereas Castro is pretty much just an 8/9 type hitter, Lucroy can actually be a positive part of the offense.
Those triples were sometimes close to HRs, and maybe they become HRs. Gattis had an .800 OPS in 2014 (which to me, is peak Gattis), so I definitely think it is possible. He hit 27 HRs last year, and 3 more is certainly within reason.
And that might very well be a product of more playing time. He had 200 fewer PAs in 2014. I'd be thrilled if he went .317/.493/.810. But 3 more HRs (to get his OPS to .800) assumes 11 triples, which is not going to happen again. He has to increase his slugging % 52 points - and, again, that's factoring in 11 triples.
It could be - but he's a DH now instead of C/LF. It's not exactly a taxing position physically. If anything, you'd think/hope the transition should actually help his offense.
If you believe that Lucroy's struggles last year were related to injuries, then he is a HUGE improvement over Castro. For comparison...... Lucroy averaged 4.4 WAR from 12-14 Castro averaged 2.5 WAR from 12-14
No, if you carry it further, you can sign a free agent as long as a player's contract fits the budget for each year of the contract. If Astros had a budget of 125 million this year and didn't give Rasmus a signing bonus, Cespedes would fit the Astros budget in 2016 and likely in the future as you are counting the value of his contract proportional to the year you expect it to be earned.
http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2016/1/19/10791344/if-astros-sign-cespedes-could-mets-deal-for-springer If Astros sign Cespedes, could Mets deal for Springer?
If you set a budget that it's in the bottom tier of MLB teams, then you're never going to be able to fit a premium free agent in that budget unless you gut the team. You're saying IF the budget was $25MM more AND they didn't have $16MM in Rasmus, they could afford a top guy. That's nice and all, but the problem is that, in the next 5 years, when is that going to be the case for Astros? They promised the budget would go up when they were competitive. If it's not true now, why would we think it would be the case next year or in 2 or 3 years? And if the budget just goes up to keep up with all the increasing salaries of our current good players, where does that leave an opening for a major FA?
I don't see why you are hung up on the 3B's. Some will become doubles, some will become HR. It's really a non factor when projecting him. Maybe 3 or 4 totals bases lost, tops. Getting his OPS to .800 is assuming he avoids that catastrophically bad start, and plays closer to his career numbers. He may or may not do it, but it's certainly not unrealistic to think it can happen. He posted a .253/.304/.487 line in Atlanta, and he posted a .260/.299/.491 line after the first 14 games here. It seems a .255/.300/.490 line is more likely the type of player Gattis is. Expecting something to happen, and thinking it can happen are 2 different things. I don't think he will post a 30/100 .800 season, but if he did I wouldn't be the slightest bit shocked.
BS speculation... not an actual rumor... not even worthy of being called click-bait. I find it highly questionable that the Astros would give up a cheap/club-controlled asset in Springer, sign a guy for $100+ million dollars who is not necessarily better than him, and trade for a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery... but that's exactly what the article suggests could happen. I truly wonder how people actually get paid to write stuff like this, that would be unanimously laughed at on a public message board.
The deal makes some sense (we could use another great pitcher, and have a quality OF), but Wheeler's combination of injury and wildness would be difficult to risk. He is clearly a step down from Syndegaard, Degrom, & Harvey. If they want to come talk Wheeler for Gomez, or their big 3 for Springer, we'd be all over that.
IMO, adding Lucroy makes us the AL West favorite. I think he does a ton for the lineup. If they add another front line starter at some point, then we become a stronger WS contender. Cespedes is nice but I don't believe he adds appreciably more than what we already have...especially for the price.
Makes zero sense. Trading 4 years of cheap Springer + $120 something million dollars for a 30 year old Cespedes and TJ recovering Wheeler. Delusional NY hack writer. (They can always use the money being thrown at Cespedes towards a pitcher... Yes, will cost more but you can try and find a more proven/non-injured one).
This is your assumption, not mine, but if you are correct the Astros will never sign a significant free agent. Astros were sold to Crane who had investors. Astros not being paid for TV contract during the beginning of his ownership hampered his ability to deal with the investors and led to limited budgets. Once Astros revenues get to point that Crane has the investors off his back, I expect the Astros budget to rise to mid-market status. For 2016, the budget is limited, but expect it to grow slowly each year.
