Given the talks about the Rockets offense, I decided to look at a comparison of how the Rockets used their possessions between last season and this one. Spoiler <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif font-size: 12px; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style><table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>% of Attempts by Distance</th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th></tr> <tr><td>Year </td><td>Team</td><td>0-3</td><td>3 to 10</td><td>10 to 16</td><td>16 to 3PT</td><td>3PT</td></tr> <tr><td>2013-14</td><td>HOU </td><td>34.1%</td><td>21.4%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>6.5%</td><td>33.0%</td></tr> <tr><td>2014-15</td><td>HOU </td><td>31.0%</td><td>14.6%</td><td>4.6%</td><td>6.7%</td><td>43.1%</td></tr> <tr><td>Change</td><td> </td><td>-3.1%</td><td>-6.8%</td><td>-0.3%</td><td>0.2%</td><td>10.1%</td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>FG% by Distance</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Year </td><td>Team</td><td>0-3</td><td>3 to 10</td><td>10 to 16</td><td>16 to 3PT</td><td>3PT</td></tr> <tr><td>2013-14</td><td>HOU </td><td>66.3%</td><td>40.5%</td><td>39.1%</td><td>34.3%</td><td>35.8%</td></tr> <tr><td>2014-15</td><td>HOU </td><td>62.0%</td><td>32.6%</td><td>23.3%</td><td>32.3%</td><td>35.3%</td></tr> <tr><td>Change</td><td> </td><td>-4.3%</td><td>-7.9%</td><td>-15.8%</td><td>-2.0%</td><td>-0.5%</td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Year </td><td>Team</td><td>TOV %</td><td>FTA/FGA</td><td>Avg Shot Dist.</td><td>Pace</td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>2013-14</td><td>HOU </td><td>14.6%</td><td>38.6%</td><td>11.9</td><td>96.3</td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>2014-15</td><td>HOU </td><td>17.2%</td><td>37.3%</td><td>13.8</td><td>93.9</td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Change</td><td> </td><td>2.6%</td><td>-1.3%</td><td>1.9</td><td>2.4</td><td></td></tr> </table> The first part of the table shows what % of HOU's shots came from each distance last season vs. this one. The second part shows HOU's FG% from each distance. The last part shows a few other stats that I found relevant-- turnover %, free throw rate (FTA/FGA) and Pace (# of possessions per 48 minutes). A few observations: - This year's team is taking many more 3s, and shooting at about the same % as last year's. But I don't think it is the 3 point attempts themselves that are the problem-- these are still efficient shots at the FG% that the Rockets shoot. If anything, the problem is where these additional 3 point attempts are coming from-- The Rockets are not trading long 2s for 3s, but rather trading paint baskets (from 0 to 3 feet, and from 3 to 10 feet) for them. The 3 to 10 feet "floater range" shots are overall not an efficient shot, and often result from attempts to get all the way to the basket being cut short, but the 0-3 ft shots are the most efficient shot out there. Also, these paint shots tend to result in FTAs, which are high efficiency. The Rockets' rate of FTAs are also down from last season. - Perhaps even more significant is the team's FG% at these closer distances, from the basket all the way to about 16 feet. They were a top team in FG% at rim (0-3 feet) last season but are among the bottom 10 so far this year. The Rockets similarly regressed from 3 to 10 feet and from 10 to 16 feet. So, the team is not only not getting close to the basket as often, they are also not finishing as well from these closer distances when they do get there. - It is also interesting that while the Rockets are not getting into the paint as often-- and thus presumably not having guys working in crowded spaces as much-- they have actually been turning the ball over at a significantly higher rate than they did last season. People b****ed a lot about Lin and Asik's high TO rates, but it does not look at their departure helped that much. A part of it is probably missing Terrence Jones due to injury, who was good at not turning the ball over. Another part, though, is that the Rockets are not exactly giving those Lin/Asik possessions to someone like Chris Paul. Instead, the guys who got these possessions are 1) Howard and Harden, both high TO guys themselves, 2) bigs like DMo, Tarik Black, etc., whose TO rates this year are high, and 3) Jason Terry and Canaan at PG, who again, have high TO rates.
Good analysis. I would guess if T-Jones was healthy, the quantity and efficiency of the 0-10 feet would both be higher.
Cool.. I was thinking about all of those things today and was going to look up the stats later to see if they supported my perception from watching the games. My thought was that the Rockets aren't getting to the basket because Parsons and Lin used to be pretty good at getting to the rim last year. They were replaced by Ariza and Terry, two guys who do not get to the rim much and are basically spot-up shooters. They also have not been pushing the ball up the floor, so they aren't getting any easy baskets in transition.
Parsons and Lin are a factor, but also Terrence Jones was 18th in the league in FGM/game in the restricted area last year.
Lack of finishing near the basket has SO much to do with TJones being out. We've all seen DMO blow baby hook after baby hook and get blocked. TJones is a dunker. Sooner we get him back, the better. What was our off. efficiency before Jones was out?
It was really good. But those were also 4 games when the Rockets were red hot from the 3 point line (Ariza, especially was just scorching) and playing 4 bad teams. Yes, Jones does finish around the basket much better than DMo does (dunks vs. Spinning hook shot) so it is a factor. Jones would help but it seems to be more than just him. Even in Jones's 4 games he was turning the ball over more than he did last season and being less efficient than before. DMo, too, was more efficient last year than he has been this year.
The Rockets pace and fast break points are down too, right? That certainly would make a dent on those 0-3ft shots.
I've missed a couple of games, but last night it seemed like the Lakers had a decent plan. Show hard after screen or ice the screen. Bring weak side defensive big man into paint so that if Harden goes to hole he's got three defenders to deal with. If screener goes to the hole, weak side defender is there. Other two defenders guard PG and SF at line. Let DMo, Black, or Dorsey (weak side big) go where ever they feel like it. 2 of DMo, Black, and Dorsey killed the offense. 1 of DMo, Black, and Dorsey killed the defense. Papanikolaou at the 4 got some good looks, but he had trouble protecting glass and defending the paint without Dwight behind him. 2 of Dwight, DMo, Jones, Black, and Dorsey should not be on the court together or the Rockets will see defenses play like that all year. I'm thinking the Rockets would settle for a mid range shooter at the 4 at this point.
That's the thing, though. If we had to overcome the loss of Parsons and Lin, that might be doable, but Jones is the straw that broke the camel's back.
Carl Can you do a comparison for both last yr and this year and compare it with Dallas. They have a super high octane offense. It would be interesting to see if Cuban is taking some of our strategies or is the philosophy really that different.
Nice post, thanks for this. I do agree that preferably we could trade long 2s for those extra threes.
Obviously, the fact the Rockets have slowed down their pace is part of the reason they are getting less shots at the rim. I'm more interested in seeing the difference in how the shots are coming, as opposed to where they are coming, meaning pick-and-roll attempts, isolations, post-ups ect. Does anyone have a synergy account?
Here's what I got for Dallas: (These numbers don't include the Lakers game tonight) Spoiler <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif font-size: 12px; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style><table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th></th><th> </th><th>% of FG attempted from each distance</th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th></tr> <tr><td>Year</td><td>Team*▴</td><td>0 to 3</td><td>3 to 10</td><td>10 to 16</td><td>16 to 3PT</td><td>3PT</td></tr> <tr><td>2013-14</td><td>DAL</td><td>26.20%</td><td>15.60%</td><td>13.50%</td><td>17.30%</td><td>27.40%</td></tr> <tr><td>2014-15</td><td>DAL</td><td>29.60%</td><td>13.40%</td><td>8.50%</td><td>18.10%</td><td>30.40%</td></tr> <tr><td>Change</td><td> </td><td>3.40%</td><td>-2.20%</td><td>-5.00%</td><td>0.80%</td><td>3.00%</td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td>FG% by Distance</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Year</td><td>Team*▴</td><td>0 to 3</td><td>3 to 10</td><td>10 to 16</td><td>16 to 3PT</td><td>3PT</td></tr> <tr><td>2013-14</td><td>DAL</td><td>65.50%</td><td>41.80%</td><td>42.60%</td><td>42.80%</td><td>38.40%</td></tr> <tr><td>2014-15</td><td>DAL</td><td>70.30%</td><td>39.00%</td><td>44.20%</td><td>44.00%</td><td>35.60%</td></tr> <tr><td>Change</td><td> </td><td>4.80%</td><td>-2.80%</td><td>1.60%</td><td>1.20%</td><td>-2.80%</td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Year</td><td>Team*▴</td><td>FTr</td><td>TOV %</td><td>Pace</td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>2013-14</td><td>DAL</td><td>0.253</td><td>12.70%</td><td>93.5</td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>2014-15</td><td>DAL</td><td>0.259</td><td>10.50%</td><td>93.3</td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Change</td><td> </td><td>0.006</td><td>-2.20%</td><td>-0.2</td><td> </td><td></td></tr> </table> - They are getting some more shots at rim and from 3 point line, but the change isn't as dramatic as the Rockets' year over year change was. Seems like they are trading in mostly those 3 to 16 feet shots-- maybe the Shawn Marion effect? He likes to throw up those random floaters especially now that he isn't as explosive as he was in his youth. - The one big increase in FG% is right at the rim. Tyson Chandler is a better finisher than most of their other guys-- just look at his FG%. The Mavs were already great on offense last season (3rd overall) so even their historically great offense this year didn't require a dramatic improvement from where they were.
Watched them tonight against Lakers , I am gonna skip tomorrows game now I cant witness the possible massacre
After hearing Kevin McHale mention not having "north south" guys in a recent interview, I updated numbers for this year: Spoiler <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif font-size: 12px; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style><table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>% of Attempts by*Distance</th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th></tr> <tr><td>Year</td><td>Team</td><td>0-3</td><td>3 to 10</td><td>10 to 16</td><td>16 to 3PT</td><td>3PT</td></tr> <tr><td>2013-14</td><td>HOU</td><td>34.10%</td><td>21.40%</td><td>4.90%</td><td>6.50%</td><td>33.00%</td></tr> <tr><td>2014-15</td><td>HOU</td><td>31.20%</td><td>14.20%</td><td>4.90%</td><td>6.70%</td><td>43.00%</td></tr> <tr><td>Change</td><td> </td><td>-2.90%</td><td>-7.20%</td><td>0.00%</td><td>0.20%</td><td>10.00%</td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>FG% by*Distance</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Year</td><td>Team</td><td>0-3</td><td>3 to 10</td><td>10 to 16</td><td>16 to 3PT</td><td>3PT</td></tr> <tr><td>2013-14</td><td>HOU</td><td>66.30%</td><td>40.50%</td><td>39.10%</td><td>34.30%</td><td>35.80%</td></tr> <tr><td>2014-15</td><td>HOU</td><td>59.90%</td><td>37.70%</td><td>25.40%</td><td>34.00%</td><td>35.10%</td></tr> <tr><td>Change</td><td> </td><td>-6.40%</td><td>-2.80%</td><td>-13.70%</td><td>-0.30%</td><td>-0.70%</td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Year</td><td>Team</td><td>TOV %</td><td>FTA/FGA</td><td>Avg Shot Dist.</td><td>Pace</td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>2013-14</td><td>HOU</td><td>14.60%</td><td>38.60%</td><td>11.9</td><td>96.3</td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>2014-15</td><td>HOU</td><td>15.90%</td><td>31.50%</td><td>13.8</td><td>93.4</td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Change</td><td> </td><td>1.30%</td><td>-7.10%</td><td>1.9</td><td>-2.9</td><td></td></tr> </table> Still basically the same shot distribution by distance-- which reflects a difficulty getting to the rim. Also, with Dwight missing games, the Rockets FT attempt rate and FG% at the basket both suffered. They have, however, gotten less turnover prone (still very bad, but not ridiculously so like before). Would seem reasonable to see that Morey is still going to gun after a perimeter guy who can drive at the basket to give the Rockets offense a lift.
