That's why his advisor became desperate and brought it to the media. They have absolutely zero leverage in this situation.
Callis thinks all 3 sign <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Still believe all three sign. May happen at end. <a href="https://twitter.com/mrdband82">@mrdband82</a>: any rumblings about Aiken/Nix/Marshall? T-Minus 3.5 hours… <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBDraft">@MLBDraft</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/astros">@Astros</a></p>— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/statuses/490186731015372801">July 18, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Remember that Nix and Marshall were always considered tough signings. They viewed themselves as 1st round picks but other teams didn't. Every year there are a lot of players that fit the bill. Nix and possibly Marshall were always viewed as a package with Aikens. A shrewed move by Lunhow. Who would have expected this situation with Aikens. This fiasco is going to cost the Astros a fifth round pick and a year in player development. But you dont play Russian Rullett with the First pick in the draft. Astros more than likely dont want Aikens to sign. Another shrewed move by the Astros.
This. If the Astros sign all 3, they will have had an excellent draft getting 3 of the top 12-15 high high arms.
I am inclined to Aikens just walking into the sunset and the Astros getting the number 2 pick next year. The risk is too much..... He will likely get 4 years in the minors, which will probably use up his UCL ligament. Astros picked their right guy, but this was bad luck. As a fan i will not point fingers at the Astros regarding this. Just bad luck situation. But now Aikens hold the cards. With this medical report, he wont get near 3 million again.
It is.... and combined with Appel's struggles, I'm now soured on the whole "suck for picks" strategy, and I'm sure MLB is going to have to revise some of the slot/pool rules with the next CBA thanks to the Astros (and others) exploiting the system (even though it could backfire in this case...)
Which medical report is that? The conjecture one about how having a small UCL has no increased risk for (or against) injury? Or the one that hasn't been released yet which says there really is a serious problem... In the end, a $3-5 million dollar investment in a pitcher who may have injures regardless of his UCL is not that crippling of an investment...and since nobody knows what next year's draft is going to be like as of now, I just can't "root" for that pick.
I agree, and though it isn't popular to say on here, I'm not excited about getting the #2 pick next year with the same front office making the pick
I just don't understand the logic behind that reasoning. At worst, you should be indifferent about whether we end up with this year's pick or next year's, if it's the same FO making both.
I hope this experience "humbles" some of them who likely got a little too "cocky" about the success (and recent good press) their tactics/strategies were receiving (despite the MLB team still floundering). Then again, being brash and "the smartest guys in the room" may just be who they are... and maybe they just don't care about fostering relationships amongst agents, other gm's, the player's union, or MLB execs. If they don't sign anybody (meaning Aiken has enough confidence in the medical reports that there is not a significant problem with having a small UCL)... I will be intrigued to know how the Astros spin it.
I'm indifferent! I actually think they'd rather have multiple 2nd or 3rd round picks, and pick guys who nobody will go after.... vs. having a top pick. They seem to value the top pick more for the money pool it creates than they do the actual player itself (just my opinion).
If the three sign, the Astros will spend the bulk of pick 1.1 slot monies ($8m) to get 3 HS pitchers worth about $4m* If Aiken balks at signing, the Astros get 2015 pick 1.2 worth about $7m. Given the low probability of any of these draftees making it, the 3 HSers might be the best option. Nix plus Marshall versus the 2015 1.2 pick. You should double the odds hitting the draft lottery. The best business decision is to not spend $3m+ on Aiken since his arm will blow out way before he gets to The Show. * Aiken with his bum elbow -- $0.5m Nix -- $1.5m Marshall -- $2.0m
As far as I know the rules do not allow teams to perform physicals. Players have to give them the information (not quite sure on the last part)