ESPN: Computer Simulation shows HOU 6% chance at top seed, 88% chance home court advantage

Who claims the top seed in the West?

Projections: San Antonio Spurs: 61 percent; Oklahoma City Thunder: 23 percent; L.A. Clippers: 10 percent; Houston Rockets: 6 percent

Oklahoma City's loss to the Lakers moved San Antonio back into first in the West, and with the Thunder struggling defensively since losing starters Kendrick Perkins and Thabo Sefolosha (but getting Russell Westbrook back), the Spurs have become heavy favorites to claim the No. 1 seed. If San Antonio stumbles, the Clippers and Rockets still could make a late run.

Who else gets home court in the West?

Projections: Oklahoma City Thunder: 96 percent; L.A. Clippers: 95 percent; Houston Rockets: 88 percent; Portland Trail Blazers: 18 percent

The Thunder are no longer assured home court and in fact the Clippers are now slightly more likely to claim the second seed thanks to a 2-1 edge in the season series with the final game at the Staples Center on April 9. The Clippers and Rockets are the two hottest teams in the West, and the Clippers perform especially well in simulations because their point differential (plus-7.1) is the best in the West. In fact, when adjusted for schedule, the Clippers now rate as the conference's best team, ahead of both San Antonio and Oklahoma City.

Meanwhile, Portland's 1-3 week has likely doomed the Blazers to the fifth seed. In more than 40 percent of simulations, Portland faces Houston in the first round, and last night's Rockets victory will make it difficult for the Blazers to hold home court in that scenario. The single most likely first-round matchup is Brooklyn-Toronto in the East (51 percent of simulations).

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...roject-how-east-west-playoff-berths-shake-out