Random Houston Rockets Trade Ideas - 2012-13

What about JJ Hickson? Would probably have to give up D-Mo + TJones and maybe some picks at the very least.

 

Two really good veteran players who would not be long term commitments and whose teams are going nowhere and MIGHT want to get a second tier prospect or two plus expiring contracts are Shawn Marion and Andrei Kirilenko. Both are having excellent seasons, and both would represent big upgrades over Patrick Patterson at the "power forward" position in the Rockets offense. Marion makes $9.3 mil in 2013-14 and then his contract expires. Kirilenko makes $10.2 mil in 2013-14 and then his contract expires.

Dallas would like to maximize cap space in 2013-14 and might go for this:

Marcus Morris (second tier prospect) and Cole Aldrich (expiring contract) to Dallas

Shawn Marion and filler (Mike James) to Houston

Minnesota might go for pretty much the same thing:

Marcus Morris and Cole Aldrich to Minnesota

Andrei Kirilenko to Houston

Marion turns 35 in May, and Kirilenko turns 32 this month. I'd say the Dallas deal is way more likely. I realize that everybody around here is all "We want every single player on the roster to be 23!" but Marion's still playing at a high level and he's very likely going to provide more value in a year and a half for Houston than Morris will at any point. Morris is solid but nothing special.

 

I pretty sure Dallas can do much better than Marcus Morris

 

I kind of doubt that. And don't forget that Morris makes about $7 mil less in 2013-14 than Marion, so that's an extra $7 mil in cap space for Dallas to play around with in free agency. So it's really Morris plus whatever Dallas gets with that $7 mil.

 

Morey has stated that he does not want to take on any contract that extends beyond this season. He wants to maintain full cap space for this summer's free agent class. So he likely won't rent out cap space during this trade deadline to take on expiring contracts like Marion and Kirilenko that expire in 2013-2014 instead of 2012-2013.

If he strikes out in this summer's free agency, or doesn't find the deals he wants, that is when I believe he would consider taking on a contract like Kirilenko or Marion that expires in 2013-2014, to roll his cap space forward for the summer 2014 free agency. But by then, expiring contracts like Cole Aldrich will already be gone and can't be used in such a trade.

 

What would it take to get LaMarcus Aldridge to the Rockets?

I know he is a top PF but could you imagine our lineup with him??

Lin, Harden, Parsons, Aldridge and Asik

 

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ajxpls4

 

Wrong forum you put a Bucks and Magic trade.

 

It is absolutely true that if Shawn Marion and Andrei Kirilenko are available now then they will likely still be available in July, and they may even be easier to acquire in July then they are right now. This is a good point.

I will say that the odds of either Chris Paul or Dwight Howard leaving $30 mil (if not more) on the table by leaving their current teams to sign with Houston, or with anyone, are very, very long odds. This would be such an irrational move from a financial standpoint that I just cannot imagine that it's going to happen. And a team with Larry Bird Rights, under the new collective bargaining agreement, can no longer sign-and-trade a player to the contract that only this team can give him (a much larger contract). If a player wants to make the absolute most money possible, and, again, this is significantly more money than anyone else can give him, then this player has to re-sign.

This new clause in the new CBA is so team-friendly, and so restrictive of player movement, that I do not believe that Lebron James would have left Cleveland, or that Chris Bosh would have left Toronto, if this clause were in effect under the prior CBA. That is how significant this new clause is. A team can simply call the player's bluff, i.e., "If you really want to leave $30 mil on the table, let's see it!," and that team will almost certainly win this gamble. And, since the two L.A. teams would obviously very much like to keep Dwight Howard and Chris Paul for themselves, it just makes no sense to hold out for this dream scenario of acquiring either Howard or Paul.

This means that the only free agents who are realistically available will be players whose own team is not interested in getting into a bidding war over. The top remaining free agents appear to be Andrew Bynum, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson, David West, and Manu Ginobili. There are any number of poorly managed teams out there that will get into ridiculous bidding wars for these guys, which drives up price. Plus, most of these players' current teams will want to re-sign them. I expect Philly to re-sign Bynum (probably to a max or near-max deal), Denver to re-sign Iguodala (probably to a near-max deal), Indiana to re-sign West, San Antonio to re-sign Ginobili. Smith is an albatross contract waiting to happen. Jefferson probably is, too. That leaves Millsap, who I like, and who appears to be undervalued in the marketplace, but even then, we're talking about a four year deal here starting at a minimum of $9 mil that will pay Millsap a minimum of $40 mil over that four year time period.

So, realistically, does Houston, a team that obviously values what we call "cap flexibility," want to give Millsap $40+ mil over four years? Or would they rather pay Shawn Marion, what was it, $9 mil for just one season (2013-14), and then enter the 2014 offseason with cap flexibility once again? I have been one of the guys advocating for Millsap for a while now, but there's some risk there, and he's going to be fairly expensive. It might make more sense to just keep the core intact and to add a short-term piece (such as Marion or Kirilenko) here and there, and to wait until something really good comes along.

An additional attraction of acquiring a guy who will, at the end of this season, turn into a so called "expiring contract" (i.e., their contract expires at the end of the 2013-14 season, like Marion's, and Kirilenko's) is that IF a really good big money becomes available, Houston would be able to package this expiring contract with an assortment of draft picks and cheap young players (i.e., dudes on rookie contracts). Houston would be able to hedge its bets. Houston would get good value out of, for instance, Marion while he's on the roster, but would be able to easily move him if an opportunity presents itself. When we talk about "cap flexibility," we're talking about more than just "cap space." We're also talking about being able to make things happen, and to make things happen easily. In a word, flexibility! That's why it's so important to have players signed to team-friendly contracts. Omer Asik, at his price, is easy to move. Chandler Parsons, at his price, is obviously insanely easy to move. The toughest guy to move on this entire payroll is Jeremy Lin, and even he could probably be moved without having to throw in a pick and/or cheap, young guy. If you give a guy a four year contract, which pays him a large amount of money, then he'd better be somebody as good as James Harden, otherwise, he's tough to move, which negatively impacts what we are calling "cap flexibility."

But yes, you are right, if Marion and/or Kirilenko are available right now, then they're likely to be available this summer, which means that Houston doesn't have to pull the trigger now, they can wait until this summer. Although the counterargument here should be obvious: each player is really good, much better than the average fan realizes, and each player represents a big upgrade at the forward position currently manned by Patrick Patterson. If you were to acquire Marion or Kirilenko right now, and you don't have to give up any of your key guys (and I don't consider a Patrick Patterson or a Marcus Morris to be a key guy), then Houston gets noticeably better this season, and probably locks down a 6-7-8 seed, which results in additional revenue plus playoff experience for these guys. Plus, the acquisition itself generates excitement among casual fans, and, more importantly, a playoff spot generates excitement among casual fans. This results in higher ticket sales and the ability to increase ticket prices.

 

I don't believe that CP3 or Dwight Howard will leave LA. I've even argued against those invested in such pipe dreams happening. But I believe Morey is going to try for them anyway, even though he knows there's a 99.9% chance he won't get them. That is why he doesn't want to take on any contracts that extend beyond this season if it interferes with cap space.

All you have to do is pay attention to what Morey says in interviews. He has stated flat out that he is not going to rent out capspace if it requires taking on a contract that extends beyond this season.

He has also mentioned that he doesn't understand why people don't go after the 1 in a million shots, just because there's a 99.9% chance it won't happen. That was how he got Harden and how he got Jeremy Lin.

Every team expected the Knicks to match, even Morey. But he made the offer anyway, fully expecting a 99.9% chance of the Knicks matching.

Morey called every team asking for their crown jewels, frequently. To the point that GM's whispered about him being desparate and flailing. But Morey didn't let public perception or peer pressure influence him. Just because there's a 99.9% chance that the opposing team will say no, and that it's a pointless endeavor, didn't stop him from pursuing this track, no matter how foolish it made him look in the eyes of his peers and fellow GM's. The result was that it eventually paid off and got him Harden. He talks about this process during one of his interviews, the one that also mentions him staying in a car outside his son's game when he got the call from OKC.

This is why he will maintain full cap space and go after Dwight Howard or CP3, despite a 99.9% chance of it failing. He fully expects it to fail, as does everyone else. But he will still go through the motions of doing it just for that 1% chance, even if it makes him look foolish.

He's not going to sacrifice this summer's cap space by taking on Marion or Kirilenko at this trade deadline.

 

I think the big problem here is bad sports journalism. If you rely on sports journalism to tell you that OKC absolutely positively was going to need to trade James Harden for a picks/prospects/expiring contracts package in order to avoid the luxury tax, then you did not see this coming from a mile away. I am not trying to sound like a braggart here, at all, but I did see a Harden-for-picks/prospects/expiring contracts package coming from a mile away, because I understand several basic concepts that the vast majority of people who are getting paid to talk/write about these things somehow do not understand (and these are simple concepts that we can and should all understand, as fans, and as rational human beings who can take facts/data and make obvious inferences):

1) NBA sports media folks do not understand the logic of the collective bargaining agreement and are bad at math.

2) NBA sports media folks take everything that GMs, agents, players, etc. tell them at face value.

3) NBA team owners do not, DO NOT, want to pay the luxury tax, although some team owners are more willing to pay it than others.

4) A team's current and future payroll obligations dictate what this team can and and cannot do, and what they should and should not do.

5) If you understand each team's financial/payroll/cap/tax situation, then you can fairly easily figure out which players are and are not available, and/or which players will eventually become available.

If you looked at what OKC was doing, rather than what they were or were not saying, it was obvious that they were going to need to move Harden. They had paid Kevin Durant a max contract, and he's their franchise player. They had paid Russell Westbrook a max contract, and he's their other marquee/big money player. They were on the hook for a big chunk of money on Kendrick Perkins. And, most importantly, they had just given Serge Ibaka a big contract extension. They flat out could not afford to match a max or near-max offer sheet for James Harden during the summer of 2013, and they knew that Harden was going to get that from somebody. Therefore, they knew they were going to have to eventually trade him for picks/prospects. They could have waited until this summer but they liked what Houston was offering and they didn't want to wind up in a bad negotiating position by waiting until this summer. In the weeks leading up to the draft, I was dreaming up draft day trades wherein OKC traded Harden for a high 2013 lottery pick. We have since learned that OKC was, in fact, trying to execute such a trade. Again, I'm not trying to sound like a braggart, or a genius; rather, I am just pointing out that if you understand points 1-5 above then you will be able to figure out what teams are and are not doing, or at least what they should and should not be doing, from a rational/financial/roster-building standpoint.

My point here is that the chances of Houston acquiring a Harden-caliber player, once a Harden-caliber player became available, and obviously a Harden-caliber player did become available, as the most Harden-caliber player on the planet is Harden himself (ha, ha), were not 0.1%. The chances were much higher, probably well over 50%, because Houston had positioned itself to make such a move. And the chances of OKC ultimately trading Harden to the highest bidder were 100%!

Well, okay... my ultimate point here is that Houston understood that Harden was available, they understood that they had much greater than a 0.1% chance of getting him. In other words, Houston IS NOT going to walk away from good opportunities to upgrade the roster just because they think there is a 0.1% chance of acquiring Dwight Howard or Chris Paul.

Also, keep in mind here that, from the other team's standpoint, Shawn Marion = Kevin Martin. OKC traded for Kevin Martin and a similarly situated team will trade for Shawn Marion. Martin is a moderately expensive but good veteran player with an expiring contract. Marion, in July 2013, will be, that's right, a moderately expensive but good veteran player with an expiring contract. This means that even if Houston were to acquire Marion, they would still be in a position to acquire a really good player who becomes available, as they can put together the same sort of package that they gave OKC. They can package together cheap young players with perceived upside (Houston has quite a few of these guys), draft picks, and Marion's expiring contract. That's what they gave OKC: a cheap young player with perceived upside (Jeremy Lamb), draft picks, and Martin's expiring contract.

Look. I am a lay person. I am not an "NBA insider." Yet I understood that OKC was quietly shopping Harden and would ultimately trade him. If I understood this, then don't you think that Daryl Morey understood it? Don't you think that Morey understood that his chances of getting Harden were significantly greater than 0.1%, once he realized that Harden was available?

Also, about Jeremy Lin: the chances of Houston getting Lin, that is, of New York refusing to match the offer sheet, were also much greater than 0.1%. Same deal with Omer Asik. Chicago was and still is in luxury tax hell, and Morey knew it. It was predictable that Chicago would not match an offer sheet for Asik. It was less predictable that New York would not match an offer sheet for Lin, but was it 99.9% likely that New York would match the offer sheet for Lin? No way. The point here is that Houston's current roster, which is a good roster, is not a result of a series of miracles. It is a result of an outstanding management team that does a terrific job of a) evaluating talent and b) identifying ways to exploit other teams. Daryl Morey is an opportunist, and he's probably the best opportunist in the league. Dude does an outstanding job.

 

That doesn't change my point at all. Of course Morey saw the possibilities, remote as they are. Just as he sees the possibility of Howard or CP3, remote as those are. His comment about looking foolish and swinging for the fences, and not understanding why others would refrain from doing so just because the likelihood wasn't there or that it would make them look foolish still stands, and was in the context of the myriad of other phonecalls for a rolodex of players, as described by him in that interview.

This is also why he will insist on maintaining full capspace for a forlorn run at CP3 and Howard. Whether Marion or Kirilenko is good or not is besides the point, they would inhibit using free capspace to make a run for CP3 and Howard. Which, based on his comments in that interview regarding the history with the myriad trade calls to every team for their top players that season (Harden was not an isolated incident), means I fully expect him to try for the longshot again, even with little chance of it happening.

He won't take on Marion or Kirilenk because it goes against his policy of going for those 1 in a million shots (CP3 and Howard this summer, Lin and Harden and the fifty other players he targeted last year but failed to get). You really should read the interview if you want a better understanding of his risk-taking behavior. And his recent comments about preserving cap space for this summer's free agency and refusing to rent out capspace if it means taking a contract extending beyond this season serves to reinforce the point. He's not going to take on Marion or Kirilenko at the trade deadline.

 

I think you may have misunderstood my point. Harden was not a one in a million shot. Asik was not a one in a million shot. Lin was not a one in a million shot. If a person believes that such acquisitions were highly unlikely then this is a result of poor sports journalism and a failure to understand points 1-5 in my post above. Howard and Paul, on the other hand = one in a million shots. These two dudes have tremendous, tremendous incentives to re-sign with their current teams and there is close to a 100% chance that they will re-sign with their current teams. Not the case at all with Harden, Asik, and Lin. Totally different!

Although, again, I think that you may be right (obviously I am not convinced, but I will concede that you may be right) that Morey will not take back contracts extending beyond this season. But if that's his strategy, my point is that it's NOT because he thinks there is a 0.1% chance (one in a thousand, rather than one in a million, technically; still, a ridiculously long shot) that he can pluck away Dwight Howard or Chris Paul. Rather, it will be because he wants to be in the best possible position to exploit other teams, to be opportunistic, and because he has decided that the best way to position himself to exploit other teams is to have as much cap space and to accumulate as many attractive assets (read: dudes on rookie contracts and draft picks, oh, and also good veterans signed to excellent bang-for-your-buck contracts) as possible. And that he believes he can acquire a better asset than Marion, or Kirilenko. And maybe he can.

I do not take everything that GMs say at face value, as explained in my post above. There is what people do, and there is what people say. I choose to pay attention to what people do. We can't just listen to or read an interview with Daryl Morey, or any team's GM, and accept it as gospel. Again, Daryl Morey is an opportunist, who exploits other teams pretty routinely. Morey is also a poker player, and he's not going to tip his hand. He will be opportunistic between now and the trade deadline, and will not turn down an opportunity to acquire a desirable asset just so he can make an idiotic, ill-fated run at Dwight Howard or Chris Paul. I am not going to quit my job that I have right now, which is a good job, so I can attempt to become a major pop star, or to build a landing pad for a spaceship that will come down from the heavens and take me to a perfect planet full of beautiful women who want to have sex with me all day long. Morey was for sure presented the opportunity to acquire the junk that Memphis traded Cleveland, along with a Grizzlies first round pick, and he wasn't crazy about that opportunity, not because he is dead set using up 2013-14 cap space (in my opinion), but because he believed (and I agree with him on this) that a better opportunity can and will present itself between now and the February trade deadline, or perhaps in June/July.

I think we agree on most points here, actually. What we disagree on is that Morey's goal is to hit the jackpot this summer by somehow acquiring Dwight Howard or Chris Paul. Morey's goal is to improve the roster and to accumulate assets, all while preserving cap flexibility (which is not the same thing as cap space). He is aware of each team's financial/cap/tax situation, and is aware of which players may become available, the likelihood of such players becoming available, and each team's asking price. So he is aware that Marion is an opportunity, and that Kirilenko is an opportunity, but that there are other opportunities right now, and that there will be other opportunities that present themselves this summer, or this fall. He is also aware that acquiring Howard is highly unlikely, and that acquiring Paul is highly unlikely, in the same way that I am aware that it is highly unlikely that I am going to turn into a major pop star. Morey may pass on Marion, or Kirilenko, or, for instance, Ersan Ilyasova (who may be available right now), between now and 2/21, or he may not. I'm not going to assume that he's going to pass on these guys just so he can have as much cap space as possible this summer, no matter what the guy says in an interview.

 

The ultimate dream for Morey and us is to acquire both Paul and Howard and keeping Harden, Parsons, and one of the youngsters (Jones/DMo).

 

One more point: Daryl Morey understood last summer that acquiring Dwight Howard was achievable, and he made a strong effort to achieve that goal. I believe, and I am not alone, that Orlando behaved irrationally by turning down Houston's package. Aaron Afflalo is getting paid a lot of money to be nothing special, and Al Harrington is getting paid a lot of money to just flat out suck. And both guys are on the books for a while. Morey's failure to acquire Howard last summer was, in other words, largely a result of mismanagement (i.e., irrational behavior) by Orlando. A rational person can behave rationally but s/he is often impeded by the fact that not everybody out there is rational! OKC, on the other hand, was a rational actor, which resulted in the Harden trade. Chicago was a rational actor, which resulted in the Asik acquisition. New York behaved irrationally, by refusing to match the offer sheet for Lin, but this worked out in Houston's favor.

Acquiring Howard last summer was an achievable goal. But acquiring Howard this summer, when his current team is the great Los Angeles Lakers, a team with very deep pockets, a team that very much intends to keep him, and the league's marquee team? This is not an achievable goal, and Daryl Morey understands this, because, again, he is a rational person. L.A. is a rational actor and will not let Howard walk. Howard is a rational actor and will re-sign. Morey is an opportunist, and he positions himself to seize upon opportunities that present themselves. Acquiring Howard this summer is not going to be one of those oppotunities, and neither is acquiring Chris Paul. But, again, you may be right that an opportunity will present itself that trumps Shawn Marion, and that if Morey were to trade for Marion right now, he will not be able to seize upon this future opportunity. You've made a good point here.

 

I think you're getting too hung up on the phrase "1 in a million shot." It doesn't mean that the literal odds are statistically 1 in 1 Million. Let's say unlikely to happen. The chance of the Knicks matching according to most people, and even Morey himself, was greater than 50%. The chance of Harden not being traded at that time was similiarly greater than 50%. They were more likely to either work something out, or perhaps hold onto him till the trade deadline in an effort to win him over, or perhaps just trade him to another team than the Rockets. Sure, Harden may have to be moved eventually, but not at the time Morey started spamming GM's early last season, and certainly no one expected it to be at the start of this season. They expected it to be at the trade deadline if it did happen. That was why it was a surprise to everyone. The fact that the Knicks didn't match Lin was as surprise even to Morey.

And then consider all the phone calls he made to other teams, Lin and Harden weren't isolated attempts. And this isn't just him speaking, but his actual actions, if you want to judge him on actions instead of words. He details how he and his staff went through each team's roster and identified 2 or 3 targets, then went to the phones and phoned every team, cycling through them and checking up frequently, even though he knew it was extremely unlikely that those teams would part with the targeted players, such as Harden being one of them. This shotgun approach of just spamming other GMs worked with Harden, but failed with the extensive list of other players targeted that season.

So I think he will make the run at CP3 and Dwight Howard, even if it's just pro forma.

 

Oh, sure, Morey will probably try to acquire Chris Paul and/or Dwight Howard, but the point is that it's a pipe dream, and he is a smart dude, so he knows that it's a pipe dream. Acquiring Howard last summer = not a pipe dream (and, in fact, had Orlando behaved rationally, Howard would be a Rocket right now, in my opinion). Acquiring Harden this fall, or eventually = not a pipe dream. My point is that I don't think that Morey will forego opportunities to upgrade the roster and to accumulate desirable assets, all while maintaining cap flexibility (again, not the same thing as cap space, but you seem to recognize the distinction between the two), simply so he can pursue a pipe dream. Just as I am not going to quit my job and start working toward becoming a major pop star. Morey is a rational actor.

I think we actually agree on most points. Nice to have a discussion with a knowledgeable fan!

 

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=aapoyw5

Houston gets Casspi and Ellington

Cleveland gets Aldrich and Morris or Patterson.

 

No No No Casspi does not get PT in Cleveland and I do not think Ellington is even in the rotation since the trade..

Rockets and Bobcats

Aldrich for Byron Mullens

Last 3 games from coming back from injury for Mullens

2/4 Heat 28 mins 12 Pts 9 Rebs 1 Blk

2/6 Cavs 18 mins 15 Pts 7 Rebs 1 Blk

2/8 Lakers 39 mins 20 Pts 12 Rebs 1 Blk (Against D Howard 12 Pts 11 Rebs)

 

Casspi has potential though.