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2012-2013 Astros Offseason: Trade & FA Speculation

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by juicystream, Oct 30, 2012.

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  1. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    We've always had a thread before, why not now?

    Here is a list of non-tender candidates:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/non-tender-candidates.html

    Here is a list of projected arbitration salaries:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2013.html

    Norris: 2.9M
    Lowrie: 1.9M
    Lopez: 1.4M
    Wright: 900k
    E. Gonzalez: 800k

    Astros official release on Free Agency:

    http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/...27&content_id=40084820&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou

    Tags throws some names out there:

    http://brianmctaggart.mlblogs.com/2012/10/29/astros-have-plenty-of-free-agent-targets/
     
    #1 juicystream, Oct 30, 2012
  2. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tmxTtDiWidNuZUZLxaZIu5Q&output=html

    We have $5.5M committed in salary next year, and that is for guys not even on playing for the Astros (Almost no chance Astros pick up Snyder's $4M option).

    If you take the estimated arbitration numbers (excluding Edgar Gonzalez), our salary is at $12.6M for 4 players, with the remainder currently at minimum salaries (around $500k). Ignoring the 15 guys on the 40 man roster, but in the minor leagues who receive salaries less than $70k, that means our estimated payroll for the 25-man roster sits at around $23M.

    IIRC, the Astros have said they expect to have a payroll of around $50M, which would leave $25-30M to spend .
     
    #2 juicystream, Oct 30, 2012
    2 people like this.
  3. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Do you have a wishlist yet as far what positions to focus on and how much should be spent at each?

    For sake of argument, if we did have all of that 25-30m to spend, do we 2 or 3 major dudes or 5 or 6 hole fillers?

    How good do we want to be or are trying to be next year?

    Do we need to be careful not to block upcoming prospects or take away playing time from some folks?
     
    #3 jim1961, Oct 30, 2012
  4. Scolalist

    Scolalist Member

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    My wishlist would be two outfielders and a starting pitcher who can pitch deep into games and rest the bullpen (big problem from when the Astros were 23-23 to where they ended up)

    We need a lead off man and a CF so Michael Bourn. Move Altuve back to his ideal #2 spot in the lineup. 2-3 yr deal (till Springer or whoever else is ready) 20/30 mil

    I read rumours of Melky Cabrera likely having to sign a 1yr deal to re-establish his market value. 1yr 8 mil. If he hits like he did year would be an excellent trade deadline chip to land a top prospect.

    I don't know about pitching but a starting pitcher is where my money would go. Astros are way more thin in the minors in this department. Signing a starter long term doesn't seem like he'd be holding up anyone's spot in the rotation at least right now in 2-3 years
     
    #4 Scolalist, Oct 30, 2012
  5. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Even 2 starters wouldnt be overkill as long as both of them were not signed long term. 2 starters would allow us to move one present starter to the pen. Some have suggested Norris would flourish as a long reliever.
     
    #5 jim1961, Oct 30, 2012
  6. HstnSprtsFan101

    HstnSprtsFan101 Member

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    Hi, just joined the boards but have been reading for a while!

    Huge Texans & Astros fan but keep up with the Rockets as well.

    I would like to see us sign Angel Pagan, Cody Ross, James Loney, Shawn Marcum, & Kyle Farnsworth

    none of these guys break the bank & would keep us around where we wanna spend I believe. I feel we need to be competitive our first year..not expecting playoffs but these guys would help us compete. Our lineup would look something like

    1. Pagan/CF
    2. Altuve/2B
    3. Ross/RF
    4. *Loney/DH
    5. Maxwell/LF
    6. Wallace/1B
    7. Lowrie/SS
    8. Dominguez/3B
    9. Castro/C

    & Marcum would likely be our #2 behind Harrell & Farnsworth would help the back end of the pen.
    Thoughts?
     
    #6 HstnSprtsFan101, Oct 30, 2012
  7. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Free Agency (non) News

    In the least surprising news of the off-season, the Astros won't be huge players in the free agent market, which opens Friday.

    Noted in the linked article is that the only real decision the Astros have to make (which isn't much of a decision) is whether or not to buy out Chris Snyder.

    There's a mutual option for $4m for 2013, but the Astros can buy him out for $500,000. Snyder, who "hit" .176/.295/.308 in 76 games for the Astros in 2012 for an OPS+ of 65. Only the Padres' Nick Hundley had a worse batting average among catchers with at least 200 PAs. And $4m isn't a good number for a player with -0.2 WAR. Obviously.
     
    #7 No Worries, Oct 31, 2012
  8. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    I want the team to focus on good buys. I think back to when we originally signed Brett Myers. That was a great value, we need deals like that.

    If I have a wish list by position, I'd look for a starter, backup catcher and a closer. Given how I feel about our 40-man roster, I'd like to concentrate on adding fewer players.
     
    #8 juicystream, Oct 31, 2012
  9. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Well, the past 2 seasons they have been focusing on good byes.
     
    #9 bobrek, Oct 31, 2012
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  10. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Guys I would be tempted to go after:

    Mike Napoli to be our backup catcher/DH
    Hiroki Kuroda/Shaun Marcum/Dice-K/Anibal Sanchez/Brandon McCarthy/Chien-Ming Wang/Chris Young/Eric Bedard/Edwin Jackson/Joe Saunders/Randy Wolf
    Mike Adams/Jeremy Affedlt/Broxton/Taylor Buchholz/Jenks/Lyon/Myers/Rauch/Rodney/Valverde
     
    #10 juicystream, Oct 31, 2012
  11. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    The quote won't be huge players seems to be saying, Dont expect much.

    Yes, Snyder was pretty horrible at the plate. No brainer on option. But on that note, our entire outfield wasnt much better.
     
    #11 jim1961, Oct 31, 2012
  12. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    To no one's surprise, Astros have declined the option on C Chris Snyder. He'll get a 500K buyout.

    CC, really?!
     
    #12 J.R., Oct 31, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2012
  13. PippenAintEZ

    PippenAintEZ Member

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    Since this was ignored in the state of the system: offseason thread, I'll throw it out here again.

    Does anybody know much about this Shohei Otani kid out of Japan? I think it makes a lot of sense to make a big push for this 18 year old. For one, the timing makes a ton of sense. In 3-4 years, when we hope to be contending, he could hopefully develop into a 21-22 year old ace for our pitching staff. That is best case scenario of course, but even if he was to be a solid #2-3 starter, it could still be worth the investment. On top of that, he would add significant exposure for the new look Astros in the big Asian market. I'm not sure how much he would be demanding or how much we would have to outbid other teams, but additional revenue from Asia should be calculated against the net cost. Again, he could end up being a bust and never pan out, but this could be a bold risk that transforms our future. I think the biggest glaring need in our entire system is the lack of a true ace. Sign this kid up and use that #1 pick next year on the top pitching prospect, and we could quickly add 2 much-needed aces into our system. If I'm Luhnow and company, I think long and hard about going all in to try and sign him.
     
    #13 PippenAintEZ, Oct 31, 2012
  14. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    #14 No Worries, Nov 1, 2012
  15. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    #15 juicystream, Nov 1, 2012
  16. cardpire

    cardpire Member

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    why does it make sense for us? DH?

    castro got going towards the end of the year. makes more sense to let him continue to develop, IMO.
     
    #16 cardpire, Nov 1, 2012
  17. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    As backup catcher and DH.

    I'm fine with Carlos Corporan, but if we are going to spend money, someone that can play catcher and be an excellent DH would fit nicely.
     
    #17 juicystream, Nov 1, 2012
  18. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Mike Napoli is on the wrong of 30 and will want to sign a 4+ year contract.

    If you exclude Napoli's 2011 numbers, you have a good-not-great player. Some team will pay Napoli for those 2011 numbers, which he likely will not be able to reproduce.

    Methinks, Luhnow will not overpay and Napoli will sign elsewhere.
     
    #18 No Worries, Nov 1, 2012
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2012
  19. cardpire

    cardpire Member

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    yeah that's what i'm thinking. serviceable DH and backup catcher isn't where i'd think luhnow would allocate money unless he will sign for a song.
     
    #19 cardpire, Nov 1, 2012
  20. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    What Napoli wants and what Napoli gets are two different things. I wouldn't give him more than a 2 year deal.

    Nobody is going to pay Napoli based on his 2011 numbers (which would be $20M/yr production). He's only surpassed 400ABs once in his career, and that was 3 years ago.
     
    #20 juicystream, Nov 1, 2012
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