From the 2011 NFL Draft Combine. Now, Mike Mayock is the most respectable NFL draft analyst in the business today and has been dead on in most of his draft predictions over the years. He is the only guy I care to listen to before the draft, so if he think Watt is that good, then we should all be excited for drafting a player of that caliber. Plus, there were several teams interested in Watt including the Patriots and Chargers who were both look at a 5-technique. The Texans made the selection, knowing they were getting the player they wanted the most. Now, some of you throw around names like Fairley and Quinn who are both excellent prospects, but just because mock drafts 3 months ago had them going in the top 6 or 7 doesn't mean they were actually worthy of that selection. What I mean is that too many fans base their assessment of talent on preliminary scouting and mocks done months before the draft and hold the player at same value on draft day. For example, back in January Von Miller was projected outside the top 10 by most mocks, but right after the combine he became a legitimate top 3 pick. Also, Da'Quan Bowers went from possible 1st overall to free fall into the second round and beyond. So if 10 teams passed up Fairley and Quinn, then it means they weren't as valuable as many people here think. The point is so-called "value" is only arbitrary depending on who is conducting the assessment, fans or team scouts. At the end of day, the Texans got the best 3-4 end in the draft. Period. I love this pick, it almost makes up for Kreamed Jackson. Go Texans!!!
the fact that players move up and down in mock drafts and their so-called "value" changes so dramatically, according to these mock drafts, points to one thing and one thing only: mock drafts are freaking stupid. these players didn't play a down of football between the first "mock" draft and the mockery that happened last night. the only thing that happened in between is they interviewed with some teams and they danced around in shorts and no pads once or twice. "value". pshhh.
Obviously the rating is based on his skill and not on his viability as an actual prospect, when taking into consideration what must surely be a much more serious knee issue than was previously known. That said, someone will probably get a pretty darn good player in Bowers in the 2nd or 3rd round, IF the guy can get healthy, and stay healthy.
And yet he had Watt going ahead of Bowers in his mock. Watt is more valuable as a 5-technique guy going to a 3-4 team than Bowers, apparently.
Can we stop the one-sided argument over Watt's value as a 3-4 DE? No one on the BBS has called him a bust or loser. No one. The folks (like me) that reacted poorly to the pick did so because the Texans drafted for one of two positions on defense where we weren't hurting for help and ignored 3 really good prospects that fell into our lap that could have helped in the positions of desperation. If they stun me and pay for 3 new secondary starters that can play, than I'm happy as a clam. But I know with certainty that they won't. I think Watt will be a nice insurance policy on Mario.
Agreed emjohn. I have no doubt that I will come to really like Watt as a player. I have no doubt he will be good and will thrive here in Houston. That doesn't do much to help the team that has no sure pass rusher (not sure why Barwin has been anointed...) and right now has 1 average player (Quinn) to fill four spots in the secondary.
Says Rick Smith: "We draft according to value... we're going to take the highest-valued guy on our board who is still available..." So, Rick. Do you "value" filling the gaping holes on your freaking roster?? I'm just sayin.
I'd say creating a pass rush for the team that finished tied for the 5th fewest amount of sacks in the NFL last year is filling a need. I think people are looking at this pick like it's redundant or something, yet forgetting that we have an entirely new defensive scheme that probably doesn't involve Mario Williams, Antonio Smith, or J.J. Watt spending much time at all on the bench. If I'm wrong about that, then yeah, that was a dumb pick... but I'm willing to give Wade the benefit of the doubt for now.
good point DM; I admit I am suffering from tunnelvision on our secondary: we have Mario Freaking ProBowl Williams on our DLine. Right now, *I* would have a chance at winning a job in our secondary.
Wade has hinted at the fact he believes the pass rush is the most critical part of fixing our defense. In principle, I agree with him. An effective pass rush can have a much greater impact on your secondary than drafting or signing one good DB, IMO. People will say this is just McNair trying to cheap out on signing any big ticket free agent CBs, and that may be true, but I trust Wade to create a pass rush from scratch more than I trust our ability to get CB help via free agency (both because of Bob's nature and because I don't feel we are a very sexy destination for top talent).
But Watt isn't considered an elite pass rusher. He's a good, traditional, 3-4 end that's really good at occupying blockers, helping against the run, and has shown a knack for batting down passes. He doesn't have a first step and isn't as likely to get to the QB in the pros as he did in college. He very much looks like what we already have in Antonio Smith, should end up a bit better.
I don't know if his rating for Bowers factors in the knee injury or not. Obviously the right move was not taking him early in the draft since he has fallen this far, but I think he is going to make a team very happy.
Knocking down passes and sacking the quarterback are pretty close in my book. They're both incompletions and disruptive plays. Plus, if he's good at occupying blockers, then that is going to do wonders for the rest of the line. He'll also be excellent in the run game because he can get off his blocks so fast.
Bowers' knee is being described as "bone-on-bone". Barring major medical advances, he will be awesome his rookie year and everybody will be gnashing their teeth about what a horrible mistake everybody made, and he will be out of the league by the end of his first contract.
Also on "value" a lot of people had Andy Dalton as the number 3 QB to be taken after Cam and Blaine but Locker AND Ponder were both drafted before him. Right now Mayock has his best available and Ryan Mallet is at about 4 of the 10 they showed. Dalton isn't even on the list, value is obviously based on the eye of the beholder as well.
