COVID-19 (coronavirus disease)/SARS-CoV-2 virus

his chart was gross deaths, this one is percentages.

How do you know his numbers are off? How do we know the number is not hundreds of thousands per year? If millions die a year and the average is 7% the numbers in his chart would be correct.

191680 people died in 2018 of P&I according to the link you provided (thanks)

 

This is wrong.

 

The LV mask is on point

 

Well, we've probably nipped the flu season in the bud...could this be non-covid pneumonia deaths? If everybody is staying home, you'd expect pneumonia from other viruses or influenza to drop.

 

We have cousins that live in New York and they were saying that its highly different depending on which zip code you live in. He's at Houston and Bowery area, sort of Lower East Side, or East Village. Some hospitals are overwhelmed and others are doing OK. He said he was surprised they weren't spreading people out more. Do you find this to be true?

 

I've said before, I work in data...mostly data governance and master data, but a ton of analytics and reporting too. Models are...guardrails? educated guesses? Even the best models have too many variables to really rely on for a lot of things like this.

For example, we do not know if this virus has seasonality yet. Will it grow more slowly the warmer it gets. Many scientists think it is a distinct possibility, but since we don't know...how do you model for it? Do you even try?

They offer a very big picture of possibilities, but often reality turns out very different.

 

I tend to agree with your cousins. There are a couple of hospitals in Queens that have been ravaged by the virus. My buddy works pest control and drove by a particular hospital in Elmhurst and recorded a video showing lines of people out the door waiting to be seen by doctors because they were showing symptoms. I hear areas like Prospect Heights and Park Slope haven't been hit too hard as of yet, likely because they are higher income neighborhoods and it's easier for them to quarantine.

In Long Beach, LI where my family lives, the city had to shut down the boardwalk because there were hundreds of people all walking around and riding bikes. Now they're all conjugating on the beach. After nighttime though, the entire city is a ghost town, including my neighborhood in Brooklyn. It is truly bizarre to watch.

 

Not sure if this should be in a separate thread...but the experience with the SBA Paycheck Protection Program application is crazy. Had every banker and CPA I knew trying to provide insight on an application that got released late Thursday night (along with what docs needed to be included along with it) to tap into a a $350 billion pool of funds that businesses with under 500 employees could start applying for as of Friday. My banker was absolutely overwhelmed. I heard a different story from nearly everyone on various questions I had about it...and I had about 6 clients calling me asking me to explain to them what I thought it meant, which I was trying to get my firm's application in too. Wild experience.

 

Why not show FFP2 or 3 instead of 1?

Incomplete.

 

Only two things are possible....

1) he's lying
2) he wasn't trying to know

 

Can you say more? Are you referring to the application itself, the bank processing of it, both ?

 

yes but the drop off in pneumonia deaths started 8 weeks ago

point is, we are using metrics like COVID death rate to justify policies that impoverish people and lock them in their homes, so they better be accurate and we should constantly be questioning the experts if the data doesn't make sense

 

when NYC has soup lines and 50% unemployment it's going to get real.

 

The survey is only for this year (so it does cover late fall/winter when many expect this virus to come back as wave 2). I can imagine the complexity. The R0 is pretty straight forward given a pretty large data set already. But how do you model "stay at home"? How do you model compliance of that? How do you model 50 interdependent states with different mitigation policies that changes over time? And we know the test data is crap, but the hospitalization and death data is more reliable but is such a lagging indicator. How do you model the impact of "opening back up" sometime between May and said Sept? .... lots of variables and with rapid changes in potential treatment, hospital capacity, labor capacity, supplies, .... crazy complex.

But I think you could make a good estimate with some basic assumption - the R0, the % that require hospitalization, the hospital capacity (labor, supplies, bed, icu, ...). So while we don't know, the range, even though large, is probably capturing the best to worse case. 71k - 1.7m death (with mitigation already happening).

Also, if there is zero mitigation, all the estimate would jump through the ceiling. We do know that so I'm sure some may read this and think models are worthless. That's far from the truth. Model still know plenty, it's just hard to models all the variables. If you do nothing, that remove a bunch of variables and simplify it.

 

The one way for pneumonia deaths to dramatically decrease in actual numbers while increasing as a % of deaths is for total deaths to drop dramatically. Does that sound accurate to you?

 

I'd bet smoking is the main culprit. Why? Because ,like corona, it REALLY affects your lungs. It seems doctors could easily tell if a patient is a smoker. They're taking x-rays of people's lungs all day long. They should relay the information of each victim's smoking history.

This lady posted a video while in intensive care. Turns out she survived.

 

I think the implication of his chart is COVID deaths are being inflated with typical seasonal P&I deaths.

you asked if the chart is real, the number certainly seem reasonable to me. I have heard reports/rumors in Italy COVID deaths accruing no matter what condition the patients were in. If they had COVID, the death was added to the COVID total.

so, as the charters seem to both be legit, I would say the entire point of him posting it is it seems typical season pneumonia deaths are just being totaled along side COVID deaths.

 

Table 1 for US data through March 28 :

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6913e2.htm

 

People should mention and be considerate that it's a double standard safety for the wearer and those around you. Put any of these on and it will retain YOUR cough germs at a high %.