Yeah betting in the downwards direction has been great the last few weeks, but with market down so much already, this is getting riskier. I closed my puts on Deustche Bank today. Price/Book was already down to 0.15(!), despite being a bad business, its priced so ridiculously cheap now it seems like there's more upside than downside left.
Damn. Now my waitr stock is up 300% in 2 days. I’ve been a little nervous about being laid off, I sell point of sale to restaurants.... which are all closed, but at least if the worst happens this can supplement my income.
This is actually one of the reasons for pausing. So nitwits that want to OMGSELLSELLSELL are given time to think about it. Not to mention give the servers a breather. lol. There are people who do think they should let the markets do what they want. lol. I bought Boeing years ago at around $100 and rode it up to $400+ 1 year ago. I sold it recently just under $200. *sniffle*
They've been saying that for the last 10-20%. During the Financial Crisis, the S&P lost over 50% of its value -- I think the S&P is down around 30% or so during this collapse, and I don't think we're done yet considering : coronavirus. The other half of the equation is the whole V vs. U bottom and how long before the leg back up? I'm with you this will be a buying opportunity, but this obviously isn't necessarily a bottom. I don't mind legging into stuff here, though. Not because I know anything -- nobody does, really, but because I'm sure 5-10 years from now, we'll look at this as a "shoulda bought moment". That being said, I'm still waiting.
I feel like if this happens someone is going to spread that we need to make a run on the ATMs and have it go viral on social media and incite the same dumb panic shortage we're having over toilet paper and hand sanitizers.
Let me see if I can write something up on this. Or at least send some links. I have like a certain strategy for short plays that seems to work but I've only been using it to make like a conservative 5-10%+ a day or so this week and not trading my whole portfolio. If you have no concern on a loss there's a ton of money to be made but it's super risky/dangerous so I won't even bother with trying to share stuff like that. I mean if it's not something I'm personally doing I'd rather share real examples of things I've done and not a "well if I.... Shorted everything I'd be a millionaire" etc and make up a bunch of get rich overnight scenarios. Sure they exist, but if you want to be realistic it's better to make something than lose everything in the market. On a side note, Right now my main play is to get up some on short holds and then wait to invest in Disney/travel (so cruises and airlines), BYD that was mentioned could be huge but let all of these fall more. Like those are long plays for later. Obviously these would be stuff I put money in and Basically forget about it for years (or plan on it staying there). Like there's a sliver of hope here that once things are going up it could be life changing investments for some maybe in 10-20 years but it's a hope). With that said, other than making small moves to gain some the safest play is to take profits while you can and hold money on the side line. No one can really time the perfect dip but once you pick it, unless you plan on averaging down it's ideal to let it sit (again only on stocks you know will last and not go out of business) - so think Disney/Apple type stocks that are more safe and then diversify types mentioned here. I'm just mentioning this now, because when some of us are chasing the vaccine news it's basically a very short play in most cases because unfortunately newer investors put it in don't take profits and not realize they're in something that has all of its gains falling on news (think of any Wallstreet type movie, where someone invested in a penny type biotech stock and lose it all). Sure one of these could be a homerun, but if you invest in one and forget it, and it's the wrong one... We might have been better off using it as TP. For example a few pages back the swine flu vaccine was perfect example, people get emotionally tied to a stock and don't get out. Then when another company comes along w/ a cure or let's say the weather changes the spread, all the sudden your left holding empty bags etc.. There's definitely money to be made though, just once you take profits don't think about what if's or jumping right back in - unless you know some news is coming etc. - I'll try to detail that more.
Damn man, very nice find! I know it was discussed some, I hope you're killing it on this. Are you going to hold overnight?
Very nicely done, I hope it keeps going up for you or at least hope restaurants don't stay closed long term. I mean this is like the whole service industry, I hope with the amount of delivery type stuff your point of sale remains absolutely needed. I mean w/o it I think it might limit if a restaurant is directly only offering delivery from them etc. (I mean hopefully). This just sucks regardless.
NYSE to temporarily close floor, move to electronic trading after positive coronavirus tests https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/nys...lectronic-trading-because-of-coronavirus.html
Sold some when it hit $2.35. Still have most of my position and will hold in hopes in hits $3.25+. If it starts to recede I'll put a stop loss sell at around $2.20. With the way things are going though, I think it'll hit $3.25 before $2.20. Edit: Misread my numbers
WTRH up 27% AH trading, I think it'll continue to climb. Not sure it's the time to enter though with it already up 650% in the past week. Feeling just as confident in VXRT. My position average is $1.96 but this is a longer term hold for me. They have a signed agreement to pursue oral vaccine for flu and coronavirus. If they get the approvals and success they're aiming for, this could rocket up to double digits and then some.
Very nice, I'm in both atm too, I'm hoping for gap up like we've seen on a few of the vaccine and food companies (like APRN hopefully, but I got out early... on that at $9.60)- hopefully like maybe $3+ open like you're saying. At least that's my hopes. I'm going to set a TSL on some of WTRH in the morning depending how it looks. And def agree on WTRH, I got in during early AH trading so in positive etc. just wish I didn't wait, was watching the rest of the exchange... Couldn't believe today. On VXRT I have some I'm holding too, worth a shot for sure especially after seeing some of these others rocket. I haven't checked on these or researched - so definitely not my opinion but heard - ACHV GHSI VISL were ones to watch or look at. Again, definitely not anything I've bought yet/researched but if I do buy I'll let you know.
Oh That comment about being so cheap was specific to DB; it's been hammered since 2008 high of $150; I bought my puts at $8 strike just a few weeks ago, wasn't expecting it to drop to $5 so fast. I think there's more money to be made betting things will go down, just pointing out there's more risk now, and to be careful and selective. I'm still holding puts on BANC and HSBC, think those have more downside. My thesis is Among US banks BANC is uniquely positioned to be hurt by NIM compression (96% of income is from interest income; last quarter NIM was already at 3% and profitability was already very low). Defaults will be an extra bonus. With HSBC, 1. in addition to virus there's the threat of more protests in HK if virus clears up, and anger over last few months has actually increased due to gov actions. 2. Situation has resulted in capital flowing out to other cities; property market is still in a big bubble and crash and defaults could spike 3. HK buys usd and mirrors US interest rates to the maintain peg to usd; HSBC will face the same Nim compression for now and if HK gives up on maintaining the peg due to depleting usd reserves capital flight could accelerate. 4. HSBC is technically a uk bank. Unlike DB which is likely to get bailed out by German gov if it gets to that stage, I'm not sure who does that for HSBC. Not expecting all of these things to happen before my option expires, but the potential is there for much bigger drops which is why I'm still holding.
I opened a new bank account just in case existing bank goes into Lehman Brothers fashion, KPMG new client acceptance is subject to one month background check
