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Even "Moreyball" Basic Formulas Show Chucking Is Bad

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by napalm06, Jan 20, 2020.

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  1. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    [Rockets 3-point %] * 3 points / 2 points.

    The result of that very simple math is what the Rockets would have to shoot inside the 3-point line to have the same efficiency, if they redistributed all of those bricks.

    Do the math on the fly as you're watching so you can be as sad as I am!

    When they are shooting 9-of-45 from 3 (as they are so often recently), that means:

    9/45*3/2 = 30.0% shooting inside the line would have the same effect.

    Even the Moreyball formula says that what we are watching is stupid.

    If you want to be a three point shooting team, get a 3 point shooting roster.

    Don't take your minivan to a rally race.
     
    #1 napalm06, Jan 20, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2020
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  2. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    I am pretty tired of Moreyball, or rather all this undisciplined chucking from the team

    we have no snipers, but jack up the most threes in the league...bricks flying all over the court, the rim getting beat up every night

    Which other GM dictates an offense to this degree? Harden’s chucking is getting worse. EG takes the dumbest shots. MDA holds no one accountable and just watches it unfold.

    and that’s just on offense...on defense, this team is dumb as hell as well
     
    #2 Reeko, Jan 20, 2020
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  3. dmoneybangbang

    dmoneybangbang Member

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    It's just too damn predictable. You really aren't spreading the floor as much as you think when you never take what the defense gives you.
     
    #3 dmoneybangbang, Jan 20, 2020
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  4. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    It's hard to watch.

    We can even take a break from bashing specific players. It's a systemic problem.

    Westbrook "has value in his playmaking" but can't shoot
    Tucker "has value in his D" but can't shoot
    Capela "has value in his vertical spacing" but can't shoot

    Who shoots?

    There's no way I'm smarter than Daryl Morey, so this has to be a Fertitta thing.
     
    #4 napalm06, Jan 20, 2020
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  5. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    I don't disagree. And the flipside is, a lot of shots are wide open and we are still missing. That's the only rational reason you trade a dead-eye shooter in Chris Paul for a non-shooter in Westbrook - to create open shots. But then you have to have guys who can make them.
     
    #5 napalm06, Jan 20, 2020
  6. dmoneybangbang

    dmoneybangbang Member

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    I think it's more of a "cater to your superstar" thing, which has been going on almost from day 1 and spanned two owners. I get the feeling Harden isn't a "structure" type guy.
     
    #6 dmoneybangbang, Jan 20, 2020
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  7. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    If Harden really wants to win, he has to realize this ain't it.
     
    #7 napalm06, Jan 20, 2020
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  8. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    Morey has never been able to bring in snipers or build a roster that isn’t full of guys that are limited offensively...this has been going on before Tilman

    Before they were taking 30 or so threes a night which u could stomach, but once MDA arrived, it’s been ratcheted up to 45, and they’ve even talked about wanting to average over 50 attempts a game. Over 50 attempts with these brick layers and civilization builders? What a joke. My eyes hate me right now.
     
    #8 Reeko, Jan 20, 2020
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  9. dmoneybangbang

    dmoneybangbang Member

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    I think because of ownership, the "fit" hasn't been great.
     
    #9 dmoneybangbang, Jan 20, 2020
  10. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Cleverly disguised FIRE MOREY thread.

    Agree.

    [​IMG]
     
    #10 J.R., Jan 20, 2020
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  11. rocketchamp

    rocketchamp Member

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    And to be clear, Moreyball isn't a MDA style offense. We don't run any plays & it hurts when we hit droughts. The Rockets don't have a plan B when 3's don't fall
     
    #11 rocketchamp, Jan 20, 2020
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  12. JW86

    JW86 Member

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    It’s ego, Morey doesn’t want to admit how he’s failed and MDA is just having fun he’s allowed to fulfil his dream of having a team that throws up 40-50 threes a night .
     
    #12 JW86, Jan 20, 2020
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  13. RocketsFido

    RocketsFido Member

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    I would have more faith in Moreyball if we actually had multiple snipers on this team.

    Moreyball has been tried before in the finals (no, I'm not counting the Warriors motion offense). The Magic did it with Dwight at the center surrounded by 3 point shooters and they were able to beat the Lebron Cavs but they lost in the finals because they went cold and that's what happens to Moreyball all the time proven time and time again by the Rockets. It's just not good enough to do the same thing expecting opposing teams will adjust and your shots will still fall.

    It worked in the D-League where teams play way worse defense than in the NBA and the stage is much smaller. Morey saw this happen and has completely bought in that it works if we just keep trying year after year. He can't get past his own ego at this point.
     
    #13 RocketsFido, Jan 20, 2020
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  14. bloodwings19

    bloodwings19 Member

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    I have not seen Harden go at the basket like this for while. We need this type of stuff.
     
    #14 bloodwings19, Jan 20, 2020
  15. WestendMassive

    WestendMassive Member

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    What happened to the Harden-Capela pick and roll? When Cap first made Dwight obsolete it was deadly. Now they never run it. Bizarre.
     
    #15 WestendMassive, Jan 20, 2020
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  16. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    lol. I'm trying to parse out if it's Morey's fault or if his hands are tied. The past two years haven't felt like Morey moves.

    It might also somehow be Bill O'brien's fault. He's constantly taking over more than he is capable of.
     
    #16 napalm06, Jan 20, 2020
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  17. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    I saw Harden was 1-17 from 3.

    He could have shot....

    *AHEM*

    ... 8.82% on 2 pointers with those shots and been equally productive.

    This is very low IQ ball.
     
    #17 napalm06, Jan 20, 2020
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  18. BleedsRocketRed

    BleedsRocketRed Member

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    I have a feeling Dan Tony is gone after this year, as is Morey.

    I think we may be seeing the last of Moreyball guys. It just inst working with our roster and coach. It hasnt worked over the last decade or so. Cp3's injury in game 5 while devastating, game 7's 20-whatever missed in a row was the first nail in the coffin. Unfortunately we just don't have the flexibility to retool all that well either.

    To be honest, I am a little tired of it.

    Dark days ahead...
     
    #18 BleedsRocketRed, Jan 20, 2020
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  19. dmoneybangbang

    dmoneybangbang Member

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    I think predictability is more of an issue than lack of "snipers" when it comes to the "system" or Moreyball.
     
    #19 dmoneybangbang, Jan 20, 2020
  20. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    Free Throws 12 - 17 for 70.6 percent
    3 prts 9 - 45 for 20% --- jesus christ
    2 ptrs 36 - 52 for 69% --- JESUS CHRIST!

    WE SHOT AS WELL FROM 2 AS WE DID FROM THE FREE THROW LINE!!!

    Rocket River
     
    #20 Rocket River, Jan 20, 2020
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