So this pretty much assures that our roster is set until at least January? I seriously doubt they believe they’ll land Iggy in January. Morey knows better, I hope.
It probably has more to do with the fact that we wouldn't be signing Ariza with the intention to trade him and that we didn't want to offer him anywhere near $15M if we intended to keep him.
Yet we just gave $10m to Nene, and people want us to give $15m to Shump, simply for a tradeable contract -- "Human Trade Exception" Everything points to PHX signed Ariza with every intention of trading him, and they got legit value back. So, I'm asking...did Morey get this "Human Trade Exception" idea from PHX -- that @BimaThug suggests -- or did Ariza somehow get insulted in a manner that Nene didn't.
VERY different situations. Ariza got a FULLY GUARANTEED $15 million. Nene's contract is basically just a $2.6M deal that can be used in trades as a "$10M salary" (due to some incredibly creative and innovative contract structuring). No way in hell Ariza would've agreed to that Nene contract structure. Also, if I had to guess, I'd put the odds of the Rockets ultimately making a big trade with Nene's deal at well below 50%, and he'll probably either be waived or traded (as a $2.6M salary dump) in mid-February. But this contract at least puts the Rockets in position to make a big trade if the right deal comes along.
What we did with Nene is different. We gave him $10m in the sense that "likely" bonuses count towards the cap. At the same time, those "likely" bonuses will no doubt be something the team can control regarding whether or not they affect actual tax. As for Shump, I was only willing to give him $15M if it got us a difference maker. PHX signed him with the intention of trading him because they are a trash team with no hope of winning or desire to not tank. You honestly think HOU was in the same boat last season? If we signed Ariza (a good 3&D player) during Harden and CP3's championship window, it would be with every intention of running it back.
Yes, I understand all the differences,,,But Ariza bolting for a 100% guarantee doesn't actually say that's what Morey was offering. See what I'm saying??? And, honestly, even so, 100% guaranteed or not doesn't make something a Human Trade Exception to me, just the 1yr expiration of the contract does, if your intention is to try to exercise it. And yes, I understand that we could potentially cheat the "Likely" bonus to wipe it out, if no trade happens, like a true TPE...or just partially use it, and maybe Morey tried something similar with Ariza. If we are creatively handing out these "$10m" contracts to Nene, all I'm saying is it just makes me wonder if Morey (via Harden/Paul) floated the idea to Ariza, or (even better) waiting around for a SnT for Butler ... but got pissed at the mention of it. I still can't wrap my head around Ariza's story that PHX made him decide over the phone on 1st day.
It's not different in the sense that any 1yr contract (like we want to give Shump) is a "Human Trade Exception," if the trade is exercised. But what I'm really wondering is if Morey tried the "Likely" bonus trick with Ariza, and he got insulted.
Bob Marks: Here are the full details on the creative Nene contract with the Rockets. Houston signed the veteran to a two-year $20M contract. However, the base comp for 2019-20 is $2.56M comparable to a minimum contract (but signed using the bird exception) with $7.44M in likely bonuses, bringing his cap hit to $10M this season. The full $10M cap hit can be used in a trade after Jan. 15. and is now a valuable trade chip. The bonuses in his contract are broken down into 3 categories: 1) $2.435M for playing at least 10 games and 52+ wins; 2) $2.5M for playing at least 25 games and 52+ wins; 3) $2.5M for playing at least 40 games and 52+ wins. The bonuses are deemed likely because Nene played in 42 games last season and the team won 53 games. Had the bonuses been unlikely, the Rockets would have been capped at $384K (15% of his salary) in bonuses that could be added for this season. The Rockets are now $353K below the luxury tax, not including the $7.44M in likely bonuses for this season. The $2.69M base comp in 2020-21 becomes fully guaranteed if Nene is not waived by Feb. 15., 2020, nine days after the trade deadline.
by my calculations, if you do what bimathug suggests, and then you use all of those salaries for matching purposes in a trade, rockets can acquire a player who makes up to $17.913 million. In other words, that's the caliber player you get back without trading away anyone who projects to get rotation minutes on the current roster. That number goes up to $22.3M if you include House, and obviously much more if Rockets decide to resign Shumpert.
The win guarantee is a bit strange - wouldn't that mean Nene can't be used as a $10 MM salary-matching piece if he's being traded to a non-contender?
Yes. From that Jeff Siegel guy: The link Marks attached includes the pertinent information for the bonuses, all of which include team wins as part of the criteria. This puts a huge dent in Nene’s trade value because any team that didn’t win at least 52 games last year cannot count his bonuses as likely for trade purposes. Therefore, if Houston tries to trade him to a team that won fewer than 52 games last season, then Nene only counts for $2.6 million in incoming salary, but still counts at $10 million in outgoing for the Rockets. That sort of imbalance makes him much more difficult to trade, in a similar fashion to how it’s difficult to trade players who have signed Rookie Scale Extensions but haven’t started those contracts yet. In effect, Houston has created a Poison Pill Provision contract for themselves in a trade with a vast majority of teams in the league. The only teams to which Houston could trade Nene without running into this issue are Milwaukee, Toronto, Golden State, Denver, and Portland, which puts a massive damper on his trade value going into the 2019-20 season.
The link Marks attached includes the pertinent information for the bonuses, all of which include team wins as part of the criteria. This extra information adds significantly to Nene’s trade value because any team that didn’t win at least 52 games last year cannot count his bonuses as likely for trade purposes. Therefore, if a team that did not win 52 games last year (of which there are 24 in the league) trades for him, he only counts for $2.6 million in incoming salary, while still counting for the full $10 million in outgoing salary for the Rockets. If that team were to send up to $12.6 million in salary to Houston for Nene, then that team would generate an even larger trade exception ($12.6 million minus $2.6 million), which makes him a better trade chip for those teams than for teams who did win 52 games last year. The fact that Nene’s bonuses scale up based on how much he plays throughout the year means that Houston still has full control over how much of those bonuses he earns, as they can sit him down and ensure he doesn’t make his games played bonus triggers.
If Morey executes a trade to a non-contender, I foresee the league closing this TPE-generating loophole in the next CBA by simply saying Likely incentives attached to Team Performance have no trade-matching value, like what they did to NG money. Or Team Performance Likely incentives that become Unlikely with next Team have no trade-matching value.
