[The Athletic] Leroux: Rockets’ Repeater Tax fear more excuse than reality

I think Faried could be had for the 2 and a bit million vet minimum..Rivers I’m not sure

 

I think people understand the system Faried is in is helping his stats.He probably would not be as productive elsewhere hence I doubt he gets the full MLE. I would also gladly take Dedmon as well but I think he will cost a bit as will Noel who is a terrific rim protector. Carrol is the one that is the one that would interest me the most out of that list. The guy plays on both ends as well as anyone on that list

As much as I love pat, he is breaking down faster then even CP3. No way I would take him over Rivers.

 

I wouldn't argue with that assessment either - This probably is the easiest year to avoid the tax over that 4 year span of CP3's contract. Next year is all but impossible to avoid the tax.

I just don't know if it sets you up best to win a championship as you gave up several key assets (knights contract , #1 pick , #2 pick and the ability to trade the following #1 pick) that could have helped you really improve next season when the dynasty in GSW probably starts to fall apart at the seams because of the repeater tax and loses one of their MVP's …. and the window opens for other teams , the Rockets are at the top of the list of teams to win the conference in that scenario.

I guess it all boils down to maximizing your window , when you think you can win it all and when you just have to punt. I think this season was a punt and I don't at all blame them for that …. just think that punt cost them a lot. Morey probably knows better than we do …. but its fun to speculate.

 

This is one of the biggest issues going into the offseason IMO - are they committed to keeping Shumpert ?!
His contract is a little over $11m this season …. what do you think it costs to retain him ? A contract equal to the one he has now immediately puts them in the tax.

Good post on the other thoughts om Morey / Tilman.

 

According to what I've read - no you didn't have to part with both Knight & EG. There were supposedly two offers :

1) EG , Chriss and 2 #1's
2) Knight , Chriss and 4 #1's.

We'd more than likely have been in the tax with Butler.

 

I think we will be in the tax next year no matter what. The Rockets almost have no choice but to keep Shumpert (if he plays well) because they are very limited in how to improve the team.

What I find a little concerning is Tilman saying he isn’t concerned if they are $10,000,000 over the tax line. Is that the cutoff?

 

Faried benefits from our system, but more and more teams are starting to mold their offenses after the Rockets. Faried's stock has been low for years and he hasn't got any playing time being buried in Den. Once he shows the NBA what he can bring to a team that uses him correctly in the playoffs, I wouldn't be surprised if het gets a full *taxpayer MLE - note that's not a non-taxpayer MLE which is significantly more money.

Bev isn't breaking down, he has played every single game this season. He had a season-ending injury early last season, he started off slow coming back this year (as expected) but has been playing VERY well lately.

Bevs last 15 games

9..5 ppg, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, on 44/46/81

I'd take Bev or Rivers in a heartbeat.

 

I stand corrected since I haven’t seen many clippers games. Those are good numbers.

 

I agree , we are almost certainly tax payers next season as I explained here (Link) in another thread.

I thought the same thing about retaining Ariza last year via his Bird rights thinking they wouldn't be able to replace him otherwise … and they let him walk. Not retaining Shumpert puts them right back in that situation with even more constraints on replacing the "talent" (Not necessarily the player).

You've given up a lot of assets to go from Ryno to Shumpert , it would be a shame to end up with nothing at all.

I don't know how much tax is too much tax for Tilman …. its been one season so its really hard to get a read on what he's willing to do.

 

last season when we got hardcapped w/ the cp3 trade everyone said there's no way we'll be able to avoid the tax the following year, with both cp3 and capela getting paid. but someway somehow, every single season (w/ a very slight exception one year) morey gets us under the tax at the trade deadline. it's like an annual ritual for this franchise. we've simply been cursed w/ uber-bottomline owners who can't resist snatching that extra little bonus from the taxpaying teams at the end of the year instead of adding depth that might make a difference in the playoffs

 

I've been pretty tolerant with our deadline moves. Not particularly happy, but in theory I understand their reasoning, and I think we actually got better on the floor by swapping Ennis for Shumpert. Shaving a few million now to save 100 million down the line isn't unreasonable, even for a billionaire.

But his overall statements have been alarming. If we let Shumpert walk, and then try to hide behind "we made the moves we could given our contracts" next season, I will be decidedly less OK with it. If we have an owner who's gonna nickel dime every season then we're in trouble.

If we go out of our way to shed salary next season to lower our tax bill, it will be pretty much confirmed that everything was BS, and Fertita is just a cheap owner. As of right now, all the moves have been reasonable, at least to me.

 

It's a catch 22 with this team assuming we believe that Tilman will only try to stay under the tax this season and will be willing to spend over the next 2-3 years(and I remain a skeptic). This is probably their best shot to contend for a title(aside from last season obviously). But the front office is pinching pennies this year in order to be able to go over the tax next year and the year after that. But by then, CP3 will be worse than he is now(and probably even more injury prone). Harden may start to decline. Capela will probably peak. And don't get me started on role players like PJ and EG who will be less effective the deeper they get into their 30s. Who cares if you're willing to spend more money next year if you're no longer a real contender?

And before anyone responds with "but the Warriors won't be as great", that's certainly possible. Boogie is gone for sure. He'll get a big offer from someone and Golden State simply can't match it. But why does everyone just assume Klay and/or Durant will walk? If the Warriors resign them, they've basically got the same team that won the last 2 titles. And who's to say some other really good big man doesn't take a discount to pick up a ring just like Boogie did? Then we're right back at square one.

And that's to say nothing of all the other teams on the rise or already at contender status. The Nuggets, the Thunder, maybe the Lakers depending on free agency, and the East with the Sixers, Bucks, Pacers(once Oladipo returns), and Celtics. I left out the Raptors because I think Kawhi will bolt, but if he sticks around, include them in the mix.

You only get so many shots at a title, so you have to take advantage of these opportunities. Instead we have an owner who seems more concerned about profit than doing whatever he can to win a championship while we have a once-in-a-generation talent on the roster.

 

Opt in trade.

I figure this might very well be an unlikely scenario, but it's probably also the only one we can hope for, cause i don't see another star paid around 20M being available.

 

That seems EXTREMELY unlikely. He'd have to give up a TON of money to do that and he's made it clear he wants the full five year max now. When CP3 walked away from the max he still had a contract for over $20 million. If Butler were do the same thing he'd be passing on $15 million or so this next season right? On top of that, he has no preference for Houston. I mean we can dream, but that seems like a fantasy to me.

Reality is that we are likely not going to be able to add another star to Harden going forward.

 

It's not. The only thing needed is Butler having a serious injury.

 

It's disappointing they gave away so many picks just to save some money, but I feel like Les would have done the same thing.

 

Sorry, what do you mean "it's not."

 

Chris opt in season was for 25M while he could've get around 33/34 so, yeah, Butler would leave around 5/6M more on table, all things considered not that big of a difference. And regardless, while like i said it's definitely unlikely he agrees with that, it was unlikely for Chris Paul too, in fact it was even more unlikely due to his status (on/off the court) and age so, you never know. And fwiw we still got this few months ago: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php...mit-to-signing-long-term-with-houston.294122/

 

I wanna picket at Toyota Center. Greasy Penny Pinching Fish Salesman

 

I mean it's not extremely unlikely.
Butler is very injury prone. No offence or me wishing ill to somebody but it's just is what it is.
He could opt in then and Philly could trade him away for an asset.