I was expecting something along those lines, not someone's take on statistics and modeling who barely passed high school math.
The 1.1 point expectation is for a large number of shots. When you have only one shot and need only one point, you want the most likely made shot It doesn't matter how many points you get from that shot. Chris Paul's 2pt percentage is .488. Harden's 2pt percentage is .526. Both have a higher likelihood of making the shot than Harden's step back 3.
Harden actually leads the league in clutch points by a wide margin so let’s not exaggerate. The guy is by far the most clutch player in the league
He's tied with Victor Oladipo at 5.1 ppg but with a much lower fg%. So it has more to do with volume than accuracy. His 3pt fg% in clutch situations this year(final 4 minutes in close games) is a paltry 29.8% which is significantly lower than any other player in the top ten in volume pts in those situations. So yes, relying on the step back chuck a 3 in the closing moments of a game has been an overall failure for this team. He's had some peak moments such as the GSW game but overall he's just been awfully inaccurate in clutch situations this season and honestly I already could tell this from the eye test. So many games where he was decently hot for 3 quarters and his fg% plummets in the 4th . The Rockets need to learn how to run a legitimate offense in closing moments of games because what they currently are doing ain't working .
i think they prefer shooting 3 in the clutch and iso instead of a set play because 1 it negates a possibility of making a turnover and 2 being fouled and not getting a call
The team should probably practice set plays if they are that afraid of commiting turnovers from them.
And with this age-old issue is where I'm with OGs like Charles Barkley. You can't win in basketball based on some model or statistics. Yes you can preach efficiency in scoring and show me models and percentages. But these are players, not robots. And these players get tired as the game progresses. And in a close game, the opposing team will tighten their perimeter defense if they know you will shoot a three. Fatigue and a combination of stricter defense will ultimately make 3 at the end of a close game, very inefficient. Especially if you start to miss. The more you miss at the end, the more desperate you become and starts losing confidence in your shot. Or as my friend likes to always say, regression to the mean. This happens to Rockets time and time again. How many times have we seen us up by 20+ pts by half and then in the second half, the opposing team adjusts their defense and we start to miss our 3s. Next thing you know, it's a 2-3 pt game with 2 minutes left. We start chugging 3s in hopes of that quick comeback and stop executing set plays and running our offense. Opposing players know this. Opposing coaches know this as well. It's either James Harden time or Eric Gordon time. Imagine a 7 game series in the playoffs. In a close game, this will not work 7 games.
I'm really tired of posters like you who think Harden is an infallible God. It's amazing how resistent posters like you are to actually running a proper offense in clutch situations. Do you you honestly want a shot with a 29% chance of going in in clutch situations? Really? Is a step back 3 heavily contested 3 ft behind the line with tired legs really the best shot we can create in the final 3 minutes of a close game? Actually read my posts and understand my premise isntead of percieivng the slightest criticism of Harden as some grabd agenda.
I do not think of Harden as a superman and certainly not as a God. His defense isn't good on the perimeter, partly because of lack of lateral quickness and either tiredness or not putting an effort. However, generally he is working harder on defense for most of the time that he is on the court. His steals are just great and so is his post defense. He is 6'5'' and he is defending big PF's and even centers effectively. That's because there is no one else to do the job. Any SG or even a SF would run out of gas. Why don't you acknowledge that? James has been carrying the entire team on his shoulders since Day 1, almost every night. KD, Steph, and even Bron haven't done that, because they can't do it. Harden can't go on without much more help from the team.
You just read over people's post don't you? Actually discuss the criticisms I mentioned. Don't go on a tangent irellevent to discussion. Do you think taking a shot that has a 30% chance of going in in close game situations in the 4th quarter is the best shot this team should take?
So what is the best shot? Paul air balled a shot right next to the rim with a minute left. Don’t give me the give the ball to Paul nonsense. If you say Harden should use his floater , step back mid range shot or attack the rim then yes, but the ball should always be in hardens hand in the clutch
I only post what I believe is correct. I make mistakes too, but I don't rely on other's opinions. In fact, I don't even read most of them. I do believe in variability though and I have posted that before as well. Good teams can defend Harden down the stretch, since they know what is coming. That's on the coach too, and also because hardly anyone else has the legs, strength and confidence to make a game winner or tying shot. The last time someone else took a big shot apart from Harden was Gordon against the Lakers to take us to overtime.
LOLOLOF so if Harden wasn't such a choker the Rockets should have advanced farther all these years right?
No, if the Rockets ran set plays where the best available shot was not a heavily contested step back three 3ft behind the line with tired, then maybe they would win more games this season. And yes, if Harden shot better than 30% from the three point line last playoffs, there is a decent chance the Rockets would have beaten the Warriors. This has less to do with Harden and more to do with Dantoni not having an offensive game plain with 5 minutes left in a close game .
Yeah, this kind of discussion often devolves into criticizing or defending Harden. It's not a Harden' problem. It's a team problem. Harden is part of it because he is part of the team. But if it's a team problem, then ultimately it falls on the coach's shoulder. I think it is not just the last 5 minutes of a close game. Harden just needs more help. He doesn't shoot as well when he is tired. Here are his percentages by quarter 1st 3p% .429 eFG% .573 2nd 3p% .407 eFG% .570 3rd 3p% .344 eFG% .531 4th 3pt% .322 eFG% .498 There's a huge drop off in the second half. It's not about clutchness. It's about being fresh. Blown big leads might have been due to the high variance of the 3pt shot. But it might also have something to do with tired legs. Heavily relying on Harden ISO play after play throughout the whole game would inevitably tire him out. Why can't we let the 160 Million Dollar Man do more playmaking now that he is back?
You're acting like he won the championship. Yes, Harden for sure has his flaws. If he can eliminate his dumb shot-chucking, he'll be better, and it will improve the Rockets' crunch-time offense.
