[The Athletic] Leroux: Rockets’ Repeater Tax fear more excuse than reality

Tillman is gonna run this organization just like Landrys. Cut corners and you get a shitty product. I'll leave once he fires Morey. Enjoy the Rainforest Cafe Rockets

 

Personally, I get that most of you are upset at Management and Owner and as a fan sure you want an owner who gives everything. But sometimes, these overreactions are way over board and sometimes one just need some simple math and understanding.
First, of course FO had made bad decision in the past years ( Anderson contract, Anderson trade, Knight contract, Dealing 2Rd Picks just to shed salary). It is what it is, at the beginning of the year we already have the scenario. So FO had to do best from that scenario going forward. If we don't go below LT this year, it is likely we would be a repeater tax team after 2021/22 season. Sure, some will argue it will be easier in the 21/22 season to shed salary and we would have a 4 year older Harden and really old CP, most likely not a championship team anyways. But these things are really hard to predict. You have to analyze the whole situation. I think if this season presents as a possibility to avoid LT, why not consider it? What is the worst we can get in comparison to the beginning of the season. I think everybody agrees that we are now a better team than at season beginning AND with lower cap. You can argue that we could have traded the future 1Rd Pick and several future 2Rd Picks to acquire some upgrade. Mirotic, Tobias Harris? I mean Temple and Green are equal to Shumpert. Are Mirotic and Harris worth it? Are people thinking we could beat the Warriors with these additions? We still have to convince other teams to take on these bad contracts. A caliber of Butler, would be definitely a major upgrade. AND we tried, didn't we? 4 1Rd Picks?
So stop being stubborn and pissed, be a little bit realistic and don't overreact to anything bs. BEING UNDER THE TAX LINE THIS YEAR IS NOT A BAD THING

 

Morey's waiting for the next disgruntled all star with a drinking problem. Looking at you Beal...

 

That's not right. Year 4 Paul is still on the books for $44m, and it isn't what the author was arguing for. He was saying AFTER the deadline trade for Shumpert it pushes out the clock a year, so when the repeater kicks in now in 22/23 Paul will be off the books. But without the trade the repeater would've been in 21/22 with Paul still on the books.

Quite frankly I'm not sure what the author's argument was. His point was that Houston could've gotten out of the lux tax sometime in the next four years therefore the reapter was not a risk. While technically that's true, you can't accomplish that unless you make the team significantly worse by dumping players salaries. Wasn't the rationale for keeping Knight so that you can flip his expiring for a star next year? Well if that happened, no way are you getting out of the lux tax.

What the Rockets did instead was get out of the tax this year, while UPGRADING the team, so that they won't have to dump valuable players for nothing in the coming years to avoid the reapter tax. Instead they could spend their mle or make trades that add salary, going into the tax without that fear. This was not necessarily the plan all along. A significant upgrade is worth the trouble even if you have to blow up the team in a few years. But for a marginal upgrade it is just not worth it, not just from a financial side but from a team building perspective as well because how prohibitive it becomes to upgrade (or even keep intact) your team in the coming years.

Unless I misunderstood something, the article states a conclusion and provides no backing.

 

I can give Tilman the benefit of the doubt, and take him at his word, but this better not be a ploy.

Next year, the Rockets need to play the card that the Dallas Mavericks played this deadline. Huge salaries for useful players in exchange for taking on a great assets. Thats the play the Rockets need to get to the next level.

 

Can somebody who has actually read the article please correct me if I am wrong? (Bima?) You have people here with pitchforks eager to jump at anything as soon as they read the title.

As far as I can tell this article is literally fake news.

 

There’s reason to be upset, but pitchforks is a bit too strong right now. It’s not fake news, but it certainly sheds light on a reason to be worrisome.

 

I do believe they will sign Shumpert.

However it doesn’t change the fact that the Rockets could have held onto Knight and traded for a good player under long term control but that isn’t a possibility anymore.

My whole position has been that the GM has nothing to do with this. He has his marching orders and has made the most of what he has to work with.

I am a bit surprised that Fertitta didn’t give the GM the ability to add salary because I know his legacy in the city matters. Further, he has given many tens of millions of dollars to the UH athletic program.

FWIW I don’t think the GM will stick around forever if this is the way it is going to be.

 

I know the answer to this one.

He will go into repeater territory for the right player, that means a star player.

 

I’m not clear what you are saying I have wrong? He did say he thinks our books will clean up due to nene and Gordon expiring between now and then and that the rise in the cap each year is a wash with the rise in harden salary.

I’m not agreeing or disagreeing with his take that we have no threat of the repeater tax but those are part of his reasoning.

 

It’s an interesting question as to whether he would have. A deal for butler would have probably allowed us to go under the tax this year as well ironically because it would have required us to deal off Gordon right along with knight? I don’t really remember the specifics of the offer

 

Yes, which means targeting good but over paid players similar to what the Bulls did with getting Otto Porter.

 

Maybe I'm misunderstanding how the repeater tax works. AIUI, a team that is over the luxury tax threshold three of the prior four years, must pay any additional luxury tax at the repeater tax escalator percentage. So, let us assume the Rockets paid tax this year, plus the next two. At the end of the following year, (the fourth year), if the Rockets owed luxury tax, penalties would be paid at the repeater multiples, not the usual luxury tax multiple.

But, wouldn't that hypothetical repeater tax year occur in the same year Paul's contract was going to expire? Does anyone think Morey (or his successor---let's be honest) would have any trouble getting rid of a ~45 million dollar expiring deal? And does anyone think we'd still be in the tax with that deal gone?

Heck, even with Paul's raise, and Harden's extension kicking in, I don't know that we'd necessarily be over the tax threshold, for the 19-20 season. Shump's 11 million would've expired, and he wouldn't be getting anywhere near close to that for 19-20, and Gordon's deal would be expiring.

 

Would we be significantly better with

Paul / Melton
Harden / Gordon
Ariza / Moute*(injured) / Green
Tucker / Anderson
Capela / Faried / Nene

+ 2019 1st, 2019 2nd, 2020 2nd

Vs

Paul / Rivers
Harden / Gordon
Shumpert / Green
Tucker / Clark
Capela / Faried / Nene

No 2019 1st, 2019 2nd, 2020 2nd

That's the question.

Ariza has been pretty bad this year, shooting 38/33, no different from what Shump will give us. Anderson has been unbelievably abysmal shooting 31/20 Melton's shooting fell off a cliff from his hot start, he's now shooting 36/31. Moute's been injured all year long. We likely wouldn't have gotten Rivers as that was a play from the PHX Ariza deal.


I'd say no, we wouldn't be significantly better, nor would we have a better shot at a ring against GSW with Cousins being added. We'd have a little more depth (although if we land Markieff that could be negligible), and that could help, but I don't think it moves the needle in any way.

Anderson, Ariza, Moute and Melton would cost around 40 million this year

Shumpert, Rivers and let's say we land Markieff like Cod hinted at, would cost around 13 million

That's what we traded a 1st, two 2nds and Melton for, about 27 million in savings this season (around 70 million in lux tax). Should Tilman have paid 70 million, plus put our team in danger of the repeater tax at the end of Pauls deal for a team that relatively has the same chance at a ring? I don't think so. This also isn't factoring that Anderson would be owed 21 mill next season and that we'd have to pay luxury tax on that as well.

 

It does make sense when you realize the rest of the West's GMs are petty assholes (who'll end up rotting anyway) who refuse to have reasonable negotiations with Morey now.

 

Otto porter is a great example because next year there’s a decent chance the bulls would dump him for expirings and a pick. We won’t have enough without knight

 

We unfortunately don't have any huge salaries anymore. Your best bet is Eric Gordon, who is not going to draw any sort of interest, but is also a core piece for us.

 

The Bulls had cap space to absorb Porter's salary. We have no salaries to match big contracts now that we pawned off Knight's deal.

 

Best idea is to offer 1 more pick via Cavs for
Tobias Harris or Mirotic

Need to pay 25 million+ luxury tax because they want big money.

 

Our books will only clean up by the repeater tax year because of the Shumpert trade. Without it, CP3 is still on the books for $44m that fourth year without any way to get under in the meantime without blowing up the team.