Hey guys, I have a question to the stats experts around. It seems to me that Harden has changed his main weapon from penetrating to the paint to shooting 3's. I had an impression that he is going into the hoop less this year therefore he can manage the physical load better in the long run. Is that factually true? I know he plays more minutes but statistically is he penetrating less or more relatively to past years?
I'll start with what I found. Harden's % of points from 3 went up from 36% to wopping 43% of his total points. His % from 2 (out of the total points) is at his lowest point of his career. His midrange shrunk but also his points in paint which are only 30% out of his total points. (He never went down from 35% up until this year). % of points out of ft is lowest since his rookie season. I couldn't find the numbers and % of penetrations, it would be interesting to see. To me it showes that even though his usage and minutes are very high He found a way to reduce the physical burden with increasing his efficiency and total numbers. That's a way to get better and sustain your prime longer.
It's his signature move for sure. But, the step-back 3 at super high volume is a response to the defenses taking away the penetration. Penetration is definitely his primary weapon -- it is what results in the Layups and Free Throws piece of the equation. While defenses do foul him a lot at the 3 now, they should be able to stop that easier than stopping the fouls on penetration. imo, this is a response to Playoff defenses that try to make the Rocket shooters beat them, by stopping Harden and Capela. So, now Harden will just shoot the 3s himself at better average than the rest of the team....until the defense shakes free ... thus, now the increase of early doubles. anyhoot: that's my simplistic theory of the super high volume of Harden 3s, based upon how playoff defenses close the lane and try to still cover the shooters. Harden just said, "Gdammit, no way are we missing 27 threes in a row. Imma gonna shoot them, if they zone the lane."
He's pretty good with the floaters, but he should take a look at Doncic floater game. Will be more similar to his game than Paul or Conley
According to the player tracking data, Harden has increased his number of drives per game every single year since he came to Houston. Currently at a career high and league leading 19.5 per game.
He should, he hit a beautiful one to end the game against the Thunder. A couple every game will help him get ready for playoff officiating.
I was with you 100% until you got to the last sentence, which for some reason my brain read in the voice of Jar-Jar Binks.
Meanwhile, his defense is much improved, mostly due to increased effort. Maybe there was something to the idea that he didn't try very hard on defense because he knew his energy was needed for offense.
he also killed lakers in the third quarter with several floaters i think he doesnt have a 100% trust in his floater and shoots it only when he is feeling it
His brain - while having an iron will is a weapon too you can't do it without the tools. He is one of the most intelligent BBIQ players. Alltime.
Thanks, was looking for that stat. His also leading the league in minutes and usage (by a wide margin) so wondering what's the percentage of penetrations out of his total play compare with previous years. In any case it does show that there is what to worry about regarding the load he carries and how it might reflect later in season.
if Harden can be close to what he is in the regular season during the playoffs then it’s a wrap for the rest of the league people always talk about Harden’s play declining so much because refs don’t call as many fouls in the playoffs...to me, it’s because his 3 point shooting falls off a cliff...the last 3 years he’s shot 31% on 8.4 attempts, 27.8% on 10.5 attempts, and 29.9% on 10.2 attempts...these are Westbrick percentages if he could maintain something like 37% shooting on this high volume of threes then he’d have no problem in the playoffs I think this is the year he finally does that
