While doubtful, signing Bryce Harper would give the Astros a daunting lineup

DCkid · Dec 11, 2018

I heard this mentioned today listening to DC sports radio. Was curious what they had to say about it. Probably not going to happen, but the door has opened up a little now that there's been some rumors that Nationals/Yankees/Cubs/Cardinals have dropped out.

I think the Astros would be less interested in Harper than Harper would be interested in the Astros.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/12/11/bryce-harper-free-agent-astros/2273232002/https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/12/11/bryce-harper-free-agent-astros/2273232002/

Bryce Harper, a National League MVP at 23, is a free agent at 26, peddling his services in an industry that’s grown to nearly $11 billion in annual revenues. His combination of skills, age and marketing cachet make him an excellent fit for any major league franchise.

Even the Houston Astros.

Harper, who has 184 career home runs and a lifetime .900 OPS, rejected a 10-year, $300 million contract offer from the Nationals in September, and is a good bet to set a new standard for the most lucrative contract in North American sports history.

It may take weeks for that process to play out. In the meantime, USA TODAY Sports will examine why every team could use Harper’s services – some more than others, certainly some better-equipped to procure them.

A case for Harper and the Astros joining forces:

On the field
There are windows, and then there are Windows.

The Houston Astros are still basking in the latter (no, not the much-maligned operating system).

Still just 14 months removed from their first World Series title and three months from winning a franchise-record 103 games, the Astros are primed for another pennant run – probably their last with this current alignment.

All-Star aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are free agents after this season, which will force a reloading of the pitching staff. But less noticeable is how quietly the Astros’ vaunted position-player core is drifting toward freedom.

All-Star center fielder George Springer is now just two seasons from free agency and will celebrate his 30th birthday next September. Carlos Correa, their franchise shortstop, is suddenly starting the back nine of his six seasons before free agency. He batted just .239 last season as injuries limited him to 110 games, one season after playing 109 games.

Second baseman Jose Altuve is not going anywhere, of course, the Astros extending him through 2024 with a $163 million pact, one well-deserved given the team-friendly deal he outlasted while providing MVP-caliber production.

That leaves perhaps their true franchise player – third baseman Alex Bregman, who still has four years remaining until free agency – and is primed to provide MVP-caliber production at a reasonable salary.

Why toss Harper into this mix?

Well, consider both the short and long game.

The 2019 Astros would have a lineup that could bang with the Yankees and Red Sox well into October. Logistically, Harper’s left-handed bat would break up Houston’s daunting but all-righty top of the lineup – Springer, Bregman, Altuve, Correa and Yuli Gurriel.

That core would stick together for two solid years, and next year be backed by a pair of Cy Young candidates. That, folks, is a championship core.
It will be joined as soon as April (maybe May) by Forrest Whitley, the top pitching prospect among those virtually major league-ready. Josh James – who got a playoff baptism by fire in October – and Framber Valdez also figure to join the fray this year or shortly thereafter.

Despite consistent graduations to the big league level, the Astros continue to rank in baseball’s top third for farm systems. Whether raids on GM Jeff Luhnow’s farm system will affect that going forward remains to be seen. For now, however, the perception, at least, remains that the Astros’ prospects are strong, which will at best continue feeding the big league club cheaply, and at worst enable them to trade farm assets for big league help.

Meanwhile, signing Harper – for, say, 12 years and $420 million – will give them a lineup cog long after they decide whether to retain Springer into his 30s, or if they think Correa can remain at shortstop

Off the field
Here’s where we point out, oft to the surprise of many, that Houston ranks No. 7 in market size, ahead of even Boston. Texas is plenty big enough for Harper, and if the Astros are October constants for the next several years, he will have an extensive platform to expand his brand.

It would also give him a weather-proofed baseball haven, not terribly far from his Las Vegas roots.

The clubhouse fit would be an interesting dynamic. With close to a dozen stars already beloved in the market, Harper would be reduced to something of a shrinking violet until earning his H-Town stripes.

That said, with baseball rats such as Bregman and Altuve riding shotgun with him – while also absorbing much of the attention – Harper might find a baseball dynamic thoroughly to his liking.

Can they pull it off?
To his credit, owner Jim Crane has put his checkbook where his mouth is, extending Altuve, trading for Verlander and Cole and generally doing what it takes to maintain a championship-caliber ballclub.

And still, the Astros maintain significant flexibility now, and into the future.

Some $49 million is off the Astros’ books, due largely to the departures of Brian McCann, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Evan Gattis. In our world where the Astros build around Harper and Bregman and, for now, Altuve, the big crunch would come in 2023-24, when Altuve would be due $29 million and Bregman would be in the first two seasons of free agency.

But lest we forget, the Astros have a franchise value of $1.65 billion and annual revenues of $347 million, as estimated by Forbes. In the wake of consecutive division titles, attendance has jumped from 2.3 million in 2017 to 2.98 million last season.

Harper would give them another bankable gate attraction – and ensure the appeal lasts beyond this current group’s peak.

Will it happen?
Doubtful. It’s understandable if the Astros feel compelled to take care of their own, first. And Luhnow and Co. certainly crave flexibility, perhaps so much that they may not wrap up that much cash in one player.

That said, the future will be upon them quicker than we could have imagined.
Click to expand...

moonsh0t · Dec 11, 2018

No thanks. Signing any player not named Mike Trout to a 12 yr $400MM contract is a bad idea.

Maintain payroll space to 1) lock up Correa and Bregman long term and 2) pull off another Verlanderesque trade for an ace.

Stros4me · Dec 11, 2018

moonsh0t said: ↑

No thanks. Signing any player not named Mike Trout to a 12 yr $400MM contract is a bad idea.

Maintain payroll space to 1) lock up Correa and Bregman long term and 2) pull off another Verlanderesque trade for an ace.
Click to expand...

There are a lot of factors at play. I’m swaying to the side that says we can afford Harper.

RHU525 · Dec 11, 2018

We should just give him a 1 year 49 million dollar contract. Would he turn that down?

John Harvey · Dec 12, 2018

RHU525 said: ↑

We should just give him a 1 year 49 million dollar contract. Would he turn that down?
Click to expand...

Sheesh they making that much nowadays in the mlb?

RHU525 · Dec 12, 2018

John Harvey said: ↑

Sheesh they making that much nowadays in the mlb?
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No clue, I was just reading the article which said Astros shed 49 million in salary this year.

Snake Diggit · Dec 12, 2018

Handicapping current Harper odds:

Dodgers 40%
Phillies 20%
White Sox 15%
Astros 10%
Others 15%

Nook · Dec 12, 2018

Snake Diggit said: ↑

Handicapping current Harper odds:

Dodgers 40%
Phillies 20%
White Sox 15%
Astros 10%
Others 15%
Click to expand...

From what I have heard.....

Harper:

Phillies 50%
White Sox 25%
Dodgers 25%

The Phillies really need to make a big play and have the financing. The only reason they do not have a higher shot is that Harper really likes the limelight. The White Sox have the money to match any offer that any other club makes but I don't think Harper has any interest in going to Chicago to play for the South Siders.

Machado

Yankees 50+%

Machado is hell bent on being a NY Yankee. As long as they are close to the offers of the Phillies, White Sox and others, he will go there.

NIKEstrad · Dec 12, 2018

Nook said: ↑

From what I have heard.....

Harper:

Phillies 50%
White Sox 25%
Dodgers 25%
Click to expand...

Clearly, you're rounding. It's probably more like

Phillies 49.5%
White Sox 24.5%
Dodgers 24.5%

That means Astros have a 1.5% chance, which is really a 2% chance, which really is pretty good odds. Harper to Astros confirmed.

Snake Diggit · Dec 12, 2018

Nook said: ↑

From what I have heard.....

Harper:

Phillies 50%
White Sox 25%
Dodgers 25%

The Phillies really need to make a big play and have the financing. The only reason they do not have a higher shot is that Harper really likes the limelight. The White Sox have the money to match any offer that any other club makes but I don't think Harper has any interest in going to Chicago to play for the South Siders.

Machado

Yankees 50+%

Machado is hell bent on being a NY Yankee. As long as they are close to the offers of the Phillies, White Sox and others, he will go there.
Click to expand...

It seems like if it’s purely about money, it’ll be Philly. If it’s about a mix of all the usual factors, it’ll be LA. Up until yesterday I felt like LA might not actually be bidding, but now it looks pretty clear they are in the mix, in which case I would think they’d be the clear favorites. But Boras tends to get his clients to focus on the money, so maybe you’re right and Philly is the favorite.

Have you heard if the Astros are even in the mix?

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While doubtful, signing Bryce Harper would give the Astros a daunting lineup

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While doubtful, signing Bryce Harper would give the Astros a daunting lineup

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