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[Official] Astros Off Season

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Oct 19, 2018.

  1. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    It’s fine to think it’s terrible. But Kluber projects to be a more valuable/productive player than Springer next season, and Kluber comes with an extra year of control. Gomes has had inconsistent results but is easily an above average everyday catcher, and he is also controllable thru 2021. James has an elite ceiling; he could end up the next Aroldis Chapman. But he could also busts, and the history of pitching prospects indicates it’s far more likely that he gets hurt or figured out rather than end up a star.

    This (crazy, as I admitted in the original comment) only works if Houston is then able to add a stud CF (like Pollock) to replace Springer. If they were, the net would be a projected ~5 win/yr increase in 2019-2021 for a total cost of ~$25M/yr.

    It’s the type of hypothetical trade that Houston fans would laugh at and say it’s a bad deal for the Astros, then you go and post the same thing on an Indians board, and they tell you it’s a bad deal for Cleveland.
     
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  2. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I can completely understand why a Cleveland board would think it is a absolutely horrible deal. I like James, but he isn't worth one year of Kluber, Gomes, and two years of the difference between Springer and Kluber.
     
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  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Yeah, the tenets of thinking that would be a “fair” deal would be:
    Kluber and Springer will be of roughly equal surplus value thru 2020
    Gomes has only marginal surplus value
    James is a MLB Top 75 level prospect
     
  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I am waiting to see where he ends up on prospect lists. Fangraphs was aware of him before the season and were still ultra-conservative on ranking him mid-season after he tore apart the best hitters the minors has to offer. Steamer, which usually is pretty conservative on rookies, has him at 2.2 WAR over 140 innings.
     
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  5. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Congrats to Jose GOATuve.

     
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  6. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Just keep in mind that the way industry lists value or rank players is very different than teams do. James had quite a bit of value last season and even more now.
     
  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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  8. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    The only pitchers available in free agency I think are worth 4+ years are Keuchel and Corbin. I’d be ok with a 5 year deal for Corbin but only 4 for Keuchel. Regardless, I just don’t see Houston outbidding every other team for either of those 2 guys.
     
  9. Nook

    Nook Member

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    mario elie and Snake Diggit like this.
  10. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Dallas at 4 years scares the hell out of me.

    I think we see them go after someone they think has a lot of upside with some changes.

    The name the Astros have floated before is Robbie Ray.
     
  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I think Ray only has 2 years of control left. Godley has 4 years. Other 4+ year possibilities: Fulmer, Berrios, Marco Gonzalez, Matz, Trevor Williams, Luis Castillo, Marquez, Freeland, Cueto...none of those makes much sense, half prolly aren’t even available. I think they’ll end up acquiring someone with 3 years left. Will be very interesting to see how it shakes out.
     
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  12. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Keep an eye on Ray. They have had interest for awhile.
    Also possible they work out an extension with someone under 2-3 years of control.
     
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  13. mikol13

    mikol13 Protector of the Realm
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  14. Nook

    Nook Member

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    They can have him.

    GREAT ARM... occasional power.... absolutely nothing else
     
  15. mikol13

    mikol13 Protector of the Realm
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    Agreed. Astros need to make a move for at least one catcher, though.
     
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  16. Roc Paint

    Roc Paint Contributing Member

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    I’ve heard that AJ Hinch’s main target of retaining is Marwin Gonzalez.

    Congratulations Jose!
     
  17. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Fangraphs article on Realmuto:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-trade-for-j-t-realmuto/

    It gives Whitley/Alvarez as their hypothetical, but given the packages they propose from other teams, I think it’s plausible Houston could get him with a strong 3 or 4 player package headlined by Alvarez. I can’t see a team beating a package of Yordan Alvarez plus 3 of JB Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, Cionel Perez, Josh James, Freudis Nova, and Framber Valdez. That’s a very tough deal for Houston to swallow (losing 4 of their best prospects for a player likely to be gone in 2 years), but I think most of us would be ok with virtually any Realmuto trade that doesn’t include Tucker or Whitley.
     
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  18. AznH-TownFan

    AznH-TownFan Member

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    I guessing I don’t know much about baseball to give up 4 top 15 prospects in ur minor league system for a catcher. That sounds like a lot for just 2 years of service. Of course I haven’t watch one inning of Marlins baseball last 2-3 years.

    Hell, I’m already worried about who will our starting pitchers for 2020 if we can’t resign JV or GC.
     
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  19. Nook

    Nook Member

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    I would not make that deal for 2 years of Realmuto.

    The Astros can sign Ramos or Grandal and save their prospects or move some for Paxton or Kluber.
     
  20. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    So your saying Tyler White and Corbin Martin wouldn't get it done?

    I'm shocked.......
     

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