https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/9/18/17873104/best-nba-teams-prime-ranking Which Team Would Be Best If Every Player Was in His Prime? Group I: The Unsurprising Best 2. Golden State Warriors, 60.6 wins (’14 Kevin Durant) 1. Houston Rockets, 60.9 wins (’09 Chris Paul) The margin between these two teams couldn’t be slimmer. Here is the full breakdown of their 12-man rosters: Peak Warriors Player Win Shares Season Kevin Durant 19.2 2013-14 Stephen Curry 17.9 2015-16 Draymond Green 11.1 2015-16 Andre Iguodala 9.6 2007-08 Klay Thompson 8.8 2014-15 DeMarcus Cousins 7.9 2013-14 Shaun Livingston 4.6 2015-16 Jonas Jerebko 4.4 2009-10 Jordan Bell 2.9 2017-18 Kevon Looney 2.8 2017-18 Quinn Cook 1.6 2017-18 Danuel House 0.6 2017-18 Peak Rockets Player Win Shares Season Chris Paul 18.3 2008-09 James Harden 16.4 2014-15 Nene Hilario 10.8 2009-10 Carmelo Anthony 10.7 2013-14 Clint Capela 10.2 2017-18 Gerald Green 6.1 2013-14 P.J. Tucker 6.1 2013-14 Eric Gordon 5.3 2010-11 Brandon Knight 4.5 2014-15 James Ennis 3.1 2017-18 Marquese Chriss 1.8 2016-17 Michael Carter-Williams 1.3 2013-14 The Warriors have a slightly better starting five and DeMarcus Cousins gives them an undeniable edge as the sixth man, but Golden State’s bench lags behind Houston’s at each spot from 7-12. That might not matter as much in a Peak NBA playoff series, but it does in the regular season, where teams must go 12-plus-deep to survive a full schedule. The final difference is small enough, though, that even a minor adjustment to how minutes are allocated would flip the result. Of note for the actual 2018-19 season is that the bulk of the Warriors’ roster is comprised of players either in or near their prime, while the top of Houston’s depth chart is full of players who peaked a half-decade or longer ago. That could prove impactful as the two teams battle for Western Conference supremacy again following their seven-game playoff series last spring; Carmelo Anthony might not be the answer for Houston in a real NBA game over the next nine months. He’s the answer in fake NBA games, though—remove Melo from the Peak Rockets and the Warriors edge comfortably ahead of Houston, while the Rockets tumble to third place behind Minnesota, too. It’s as we all predicted last month: Carmelo Anthony would make the difference in the next Warriors–Rockets duel. There’s only one more player who could make a bigger difference—just one more wrinkle worth mentioning about the final standing order. If the Wolves did add Noah to round out their Timber-Bulls core, their peak complement would leap to first place, with 62.5 wins. Do it, Thibs; this is the closest you’ll ever come to a title with that long-aged group.
Eh I think they're underrating Iguodala in his prime. He was a solid second/third option (picture a cross between Gordon and Ariza) who got stuck playing as the primary option in Philly and Denver
Interesting, but irrelevant. More relevant is which team would be better if it played to its current potential. On paper, that might still be the Warriors. But I think Houston is still a bad matchup for them, and gets them to play below their full potential. Course, for the Warriors, their full potential includes the full force and back of the NBA and its officials, which is hard to overcome.
I know. Sum of Win Shares across a team is supposed to come very close to the Team's actual wins that year. So, GSW as a team beat that 60.6 "Peak Performance" in '15, '16 and '17 (by huge margins), and we scored a 63.5 as a team last year. Think about it. Compare the Ringer using a collection of Peak Performance years to the WSs of actual teams, and you'll find the Warriors shattered 60.6 in '15, '16 and 17. Also, curious foot note: if we subtract Ryno, Ariza, Luc and Tarik from our 63.5 total WSs last year, and add the new players, we score a 54.4. I guess that's where the O/U number of 54 Wins is coming from, that we see posted. They basically are just recalculated total WS for the players scores from last ;year. lulz
At the very least, they should use WS/48 and extrapolate with reasonable amount of minutes per player.
I like the idea, just use WS/48 instead of total WS, Harden's best season was last year, not 2014-15. Warriors: 2015-16 Curry: .318 2013-14 Durant: .295 2015-16 Green: .190 2014-15 Thompson: .172 2016-17 Iguodala: .167 2013-14 Cousins: .166 Everyone after is below .150 Rockets: 2008-09 Paul: .292 2017-18 Harden: .289 2017-18 Capela: .242 2010-11 Nene: .201 2012-13 Anthony: .184 Everyone after is below .150
Curious where last year's team would have been projected based on raw 2016-17 WS's. I'm guessing well under 65...
A quick look estimate is Morey added about 19.7 WSs to the team. It was a huge summer. The outgoing winshares in the Paul trade was about 14.7. So, without actually adding up the 2016-17 WS (let's assume they were 55 to match the Wins), then projected WSs calculated via trades ands signings is 60. The team achieved 63.5 WSs, and won 65 actual.
Somehow the peak of the Worriers were much longer and they had like 4 Allstars carrying the load. Thus resulting in the Championships and obviously their management must be top notch as well. The NBA game is one of tear and wear, nobody is coming away without an injury. This year it is going to be interesting as the Worriers when healthy have 5 top guys in their starting 5 while the Rox have 2 or 3 positions with HOFers and Alltime Greats, best of their positions. Worriers still have the advantage of keeping their roster together and having played a lot longer with each other. I wish Kerr would retire for a change!
Don't see how DeMarcus doesn't push the warriors over the edge here. They have 6 all stars. The rockets have 3 or 4 if you say Capela is an all star.
heyp, based on your post, the sum of win shares projects wins pretty accurately. Looks like we could see a 55 win team next season then?
